Why FTB should Resisit buying now and Save instead! explained

Kenny4315

pandamonia wrote: »

no way will there be a recovery of this sort. since 2nd hand mortgage market does not exsist any more lending will be tight.

Investors will be flooding back to the market later this year, when we get to 30% plus fall from peak, I've spent the whole of the day on spreadsheets (and am pretty confident there's going to be quite a bit of loot to be made), and with my FA's working on deals, some guys have tons of cash with sod-all to do with it given interest rates are virtually zero. I personally am planning 4 purchases totalling around £600k with a 40% stake. There will be loads of others like me gearing up to buy August time. Or before if there's a good deal available, from a distressed sale.

davilown

confused31 wrote: »

Another person who wants house prices to keep on going down until they have got a big enough deposit.

I want a new car well one thats about 2 years old, now i think at the moment there are some great bargains to be had.

Heres the snag, i havent got the money to buy one at the moment, but if no one buys one for the next 12 months, they will lower the prices of cars even more and then i will have saved up to buy one and we can all get a bargain.:T

Oh no another - 'I'll buy a house now and in 2 years it will be worth double what I paid for it!'

I didn't buy because I did not have a decent 15% deposit and there was no way I was going for a 100%+ mortgage and looking at them a few years ago.

Sorry but the bubble has burst and it still has a ling way to go.

Face it, you're going into deep negative equity because you were greedy and thought buying house was for profit. Sorry, but you didn't get out in time. Homes will come down to prices they are actually worth as homes and not as collateral.

Kenny4315

mewbie wrote: »

Whatever you're on can I have some too please?

End 2009 down 20% - good call
End 2010 up 3% - nah
End 2011 Up 6% - no way
End 2012 Up 9% - not a chance
End 2013 Up 10% - this is a joke right?
End 2014 Up 10% - maybe 2% if you / we are lucky.

A drop of 40% from peak and you think that a 3% rise is 'nah', a 40% drop will take us below the 'true' market value in the UK, thus the first 2 years are simply the current over-compensation.

mewbie_2

Kenny4315 wrote: »

A drop of 40% from peak and you think that a 3% rise is 'nah', a 40% drop will take us below the 'true' market value in the UK, thus the first 2 years are simply the current over-compensation.

I might have bought the 3% increase if you hadn't then pencilled in ever increasing rises up to 10% a year. It looks as if incomes are going to be falling for the foreseeable future, that's for those people who still have a job. So HPI does seem to be over for a very long time.

davilown

Kenny4315 wrote: »

I view market growth/decline as follows year on Year :

End 2009 down 20%
End 2010 up 3%
End 2011 Up 6%
End 2012 Up 9%
End 2013 Up 10%
End 2014 Up 10%

You are having a laugh! Prices aren't going to hit these sort of increases until the next housing bubble and that won't start for at least 8 -10 years. 2% per year from 2014 for 4-5 years at max.
In fact, you sound like my boss at work who beleives that the house prices will increase this year!:rolleyes:

Kenny4315

mewbie wrote: »

I might have bought the 3% increase if you hadn't then pencilled in ever increasing rises up to 10% a year. It looks as if incomes are going to be falling for the foreseeable future, that's for those people who still have a job. So HPI does seem to be over for a very long time.

You put your estimates down from start of 2009 till 2014, and we'll have a little wager on it. I'm very confident that I'll be right, as I was about the HPC long before everyone suddenly became experts.

Kenny4315

davilown wrote: »

You are having a laugh! Prices aren't going to hit these sort of increases until the next housing bubble and that won't start for at least 8 -10 years. 2% per year from 2014 for 4-5 years at max.
In fact, you sound like my boss at work who beleives that the house prices will increase this year!:rolleyes:

3% isn't a boom and neither is 10%. If you wait 8 years you WILL be crying about it. Houses are a different commodity to other resources, 2% for 5 years, with no alternative investment opportunity is just out of the question.

Mr_Matey

Kenny4315 wrote: »

You put your estimates down from start of 2009 till 2014, and we'll have a little wager on it. I'm very confident that I'll be right, as I was about the HPC long before everyone suddenly became experts.

Would you bet your house on it?

davilown

Kenny4315 wrote: »

A drop of 40% from peak and you think that a 3% rise is 'nah', a 40% drop will take us below the 'true' market value in the UK, thus the first 2 years are simply the current over-compensation.

I'm not biting at you, but this is how I see it:

True market value of the average home in the UK is between single (3x average wage / 80) x 100 ie ((£25000 x 3)/80) x 100 = £93,750 and couple (((2.5x£25000)x2)/800 x 100 = £156250.

In between average £124750. Therefore average house price Aug 2007 = around £190000.

£190000/100 = 1900
£124750/1900 = 65% = 35% drop by Dec 2009

The problem comes is that too many without jobs, and those still working potentially taking pay cuts, even ignoring the bottom and top 5 % of earning, the average wage will be less than present. I believe there will be another 10-15% drop in 2010 before the market settles out.

confused31_2

davilown wrote: »

Oh no another - 'I'll buy a house now and in 2 years it will be worth double what I paid for it!'

I didn't buy because I did not have a decent 15% deposit and there was no way I was going for a 100%+ mortgage and looking at them a few years ago.

Sorry but the bubble has burst and it still has a ling way to go.

Face it, you're going into deep negative equity because you were greedy and thought buying house was for profit. Sorry, but you didn't get out in time. Homes will come down to prices they are actually worth as homes and not as collateral.

you pay of your debts and save for a deposit im sure it will work out well for you, i mean houses are going to stay low for the next 5 years according to your mate pandamonia.

Weve had our house 10 years, so it will take a bit more before my house goes into negative equity, but i know there are some bargains out there for first time buyers, and they have made a bit of a comeback, we had five viewers the weeeknd.

Like i said before i dont mind house prices droppin, the more the better for me, im moving up the ladder so i have nothing to loose and everything to gain if houses come down, there are reports stating some first time buyers are coming back.

Whether you dont like it has no concern to me and i dont think it will affect anyone whos selling has you are no position to buy.

So get saving and keep your fingers crossed, if your right about house prices going down, i might pip you to the finishing line and buy your ftb property to let out.