Investors: The Bulls are back in Town!

I,_Brian

Dow Jones up 3.51% tonight - expect a positive kick into UK shares tomorrow.

Glad I didn't panic sell earlier, but here's the rub - even though we could see gains running for a few weeks or even months (the 200 day average suggests shares are oversold) we are still probably looking at a bear rally.

In other words, a nice run of improving stock market prices, to allow investors to rearrange their portfolios and downsize risk and exposure as required.

I don;t think RBS and Lloyds shares are as toxic as some people - the UK government simply cannot take on RBS debt directly without causing massive economic damage to the country and send us the way of Iceland - but if you do hold RBS, Lloyds and/or Barclays shares, at least this bear rally should provide an opportunity to sell any excess at a decent-ish price before economic realities settle in over the summer.

Here's a pointer, too:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Stocks-rise-analysts-mull-Obamas/story.aspx?guid=%7B347E11FB%2D85D8%2D417D%2D9AEF%2D08FF1EB64698%7D

But some analysts see silver linings in President Barack Obama's economic stimulus plans, saying the new administration's proposals are reminiscent of those in play in March 1933, when Franklin Delano Roosevelt took office at the height of the Great Depression.

"The most significant piece of legislation in the next few weeks will be the fiscal stimulus program. It may bolster confidence in the economy and markets or it may fall short and disappoint the market by not being put to work quickly enough," said Jeffrey Kleintop, chief market strategist, LPL Financial.

During the first 100 days of FDR's term, the stock market climbed about 80%. Whether history repeats itself remains to be seen. "Uncertainty and potential for negative unintended consequences of the policy actions may weigh on the market," said Kleintop.

Just a little pointer and opinion for those interested in these sorts of things.

sabretoothtigger

It was a strong rise, I was surprised to see it as I expected a gradual decline for a while yet.

Maybe its an obama thing, really his plans for 800bn of spending even if totally misguided must have implications on short term expectations

FDR closed the banks for 4 days when he took office and some never reopened if I remember right.
Citigroup rose 30% today, I dont understand why tbh or if that'll translate over here. I think the market is as fickle as a wind vane

I think its more complicated then that just comparing fdr to obama but I would be happy to be proven wrong by a similar recovery

32nd President of the United States
In office
March 4, 1933 – April 12, 1945

tradetime

As long as you understand we are in a Bear market, until the market tells us otherwise, then ok. I had personally expected a pullback from early Jan since we were overbought short term, and a rally from Feb into around the end of March, however the sell off we have seen has been much stronger than I expected, so I would be cautious here. I certainly would not add to any positions, but look to sell if a rally develops, and I will look to initiate short positions around 1000 on the S&P500 which I think conforms to 4600 on the FTSE

tradetime

I think the market is as fickle as a wind vane

To be precise, it is as fickle as human nature, since a market is simply the sum of the people who drive it, it's that easy, understand that, and you are on your way, though few can.

Biggles

There are no bulls yet, in town or otherwise, the market's still 50 points below Friday's close. If it was an 'Obama thing', I doubt it would have dropped 300 on the day of his inauguration.

[Deleted User]

temporary rise. Ftse still expected to go to 3900. Obama exuberance only

stevetodd

I don't think that I will be rushing to put £7k into my FTSE tracker in April (although I may do later in the tax year)

sabretoothtigger

Dont put it all in at once. I wouldnt even do the ftse unless you especially like uk banks and oil

dunstonh

stevetodd wrote: »

I don't think that I will be rushing to put £7k into my FTSE tracker in April (although I may do later in the tax year)

Single fund investing is bad investing anyway. So, its probably a good thing you are not doing that.

Myrmidon_J

I,_Brian wrote: »

Dow Jones up 3.51% tonight - expect a positive kick into UK shares tomorrow.

FTSE down, etc.

... if you do hold RBS, Lloyds and/or Barclays shares, at least this bear rally should provide an opportunity to sell any excess at a decent-ish price before economic realities settle in over the summer.

Barclays down 10.44% (59.20p)...
Has to rise 11.66% to recover today's lost ground, and 95.95% to recover to Monday's opening price (116.00p).

Here's a pointer, too:

I don't think the markets are really that bothered, to be honest!

Nassim Nicholas Taleb ('The Black Swan', etc.) pointed out that so-called "analysts" will make use of just about any news story to explain away the curious machinations of the financial system.

His example was shortly after the capture of Saddam Hussein - markets initially rose (for apparenty unrelated reasons) and Bloomberg credited the capture of Saddam. This was the underlying 'reason'.

But then soon after, they fell - and Bloomberg's crack team of cretins jumped to the conclusion that Saddam's capture had actually done nothing to allay fears that the Middle East remaind volatile... the headline was reversed.

Just a little pointer and opinion, etc.

I,_Brian

Myrmidon_J wrote: »

FTSE down, etc.


Barclays down 10.44% (59.20p)...
Has to rise 11.66% to recover today's lost ground, and 95.95% to recover to Monday's opening price (116.00p).

I don't think the markets are really that bothered, to be honest!

Nassim Nicholas Taleb ('The Black Swan', etc.) pointed out that so-called "analysts" will make use of just about any news story to explain away the curious machinations of the financial system.

His example was shortly after the capture of Saddam Hussein - markets initially rose (for apparenty unrelated reasons) and Bloomberg credited the capture of Saddam. This was the underlying 'reason'.

But then soon after, they fell - and Bloomberg's crack team of cretins jumped to the conclusion that Saddam's capture had actually done nothing to allay fears that the Middle East remaind volatile... the headline was reversed.

Just a little pointer and opinion, etc.

Yep, and how are they now?

A rally is an uptrend, not a straight line - and still got steam left in this bear rally.

(Am just enjoying that my losses are nearly gone now!)