Is the Time to Invest in Banks approaching?

sabretoothtigger

Buying in stages sounds good, weigh future risk/profit against what you've already made. But do you have an exit plan. I agree about avoiding the herd mentality but you do have to consider things yourself, they were a good bet at 50p and I said so but actually putting money down is another thing and I didnt think they'd rally beyond autumn prices.

Have you considered by your own reasoning you should be selling now? Everyone thinks barclays is great, they are paying 14% dividend on billions, diluted the share base and have lost 20% on mortgages (standing value) they've made but their market cap is still worth more then last summer. Thats a bit too sunny isnt it

Theres a vid on Barclays shares here: http://iball.iii.co.uk/

iii also mentioned another rights issue, Barclays said this themselves last autumn scheduled for the spring but of course the price did not support that idea at the time

Miss_R_4

okay barclays is doing pretty well right now...bought at 84p, then 113p and 170p. Now i am thinking is this bubble going to burst or should i hold on some more and watch them rise some more or equally as possible fall??

it is official that at 23 i have learnt one of my first important lessons in trading DYOR and dont listen to the crowd if your gut instinct is telling you otherwise.

ricll

mrposhman wrote: »

Anyway, money saving expert tip for you all. When those on this board are saying don't buy then buy. I did that on Barclays and Lloyds when Barclays were less than 65p and Lloyds less than 50p when everyone was saying "don't buy, too risky". Full nationalisation was never going to happen imo and therefore I'm smiling now.

lol RBS has been great too, I wish I hadn't sold them a couple of weeks ago. If advice were any good, people would sell it.

ricll

Miss_R wrote: »

okay barclays is doing pretty well right now...bought at 84p, then 113p and 170p. Now i am thinking is this bubble going to burst or should i hold on some more and watch them rise some more or equally as possible fall??

that's the thing, nobody can say whether they will start to fall again or will continue to rise, that's part of the game I guess. I sold a few already and pocketed some profit, which doesn't mean I won't buy them again in the near future. Next week (if i'm not wrong) I think will be a bit tricky because of the stress test result in the US, the UK banks shares might fall.

mrposhman

I'm not really sure about my exit plan now. What I will do is hold till next week as the 1st quarter earnings report will be out. After that I will re-evaluate. I have taken the decision to move some to my ISA and bought the ISA shares today and higher than close, but when transferring I aim to sell my current shares at a level whereby I can recoup the dealing fees.

The dows not helping the open tomorrow but good news is it shouldn't fall too much.

I did actually think about selling this morning when I turned on bloomberg and heard that RBS had upgraded Barclays to a buy with a target of £3. Not sure I like analysts upgrading forecasts.

sabretoothtigger

I wouldnt sell all of Barclays because you might be cooking the chicken that lays the golden egg. They have confirmed they will pay out a dividend and on a quarterly basis now apparently like the oil companies do ?

BARCLAYS yesterday gave a cautious show of confidence by confirming it would pay a cash dividend before the end of the current financial year Quote:
At the annual meeting in London, Barclays’s chairman, Marcus Agius, said the bank would pay quarterly dividends. It intends to make a cash payment for the third quarter of this fiscal year and deliver a final dividend in the first quarter of 2010, though it would be "conservative".

Barclays, which scrapped dividends in the last financial year, had previously promised to restore them in the second half. But it warned today that future pay-outs would be more cautious - "significantly lower than the 50 per cent (of profits) level of recent years".

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25378920-643,00.html

I know people who've bought at 70p who plan never to sell any. I think they should realise some profits just in case but if you thought Barclays was never to return to 70p then I guess it makes sense, theres a reasonable chance any fallback even a severe one would leave them above 1 pound now

However my own take is that under previous price movements related to massive capital shortages, they will need more capital and so the price will go down.
I dont have the choice to keep investing more money so to buy later I have to sell now and speculate on when its best to do so.
Same with Lloyds, they are doing a share issue at 38p so I sold a bit of them at 100p to pay for it




Between Barclays, Lloyds and RBS. RBS have issued massive amounts of new shares (5.93x), the price now does not relate to last years, Lloyds less so (2.8x) and at the same time they did swallow the uks biggest mortgage earner (potential value or not).
Barclays (1.13x) in comparison have only given out to date at least about 13% more shares with more in June coming I think

So right now the price for Barclays is at a premium to last years rights issue of 282p
The price rose after rights to 330 and onto 414 on the price surge in September, so that'd be the upper range imo



A trader would sell now I think to buy into other opportunitys that could grow as much so quickly. A value investor might hold. A speculator might buy in the hope of a mad surge upwards on dividends speculation.
Everyone should form their own perspective

I agree about always forming your own opinion because timing is related to risk and personal finances but I do think some guidance should be done with reference to news or company accounts or even just the chart and market volume





http://www.investorresearch.mdgms.com/factsheet/factsheet.html?ID_NOTATION=9454489

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

XLF is or has approached a possible turnaround point apparently




http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=XLF

mrposhman

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

I wouldnt sell all of Barclays because you might be cooking the chicken that lays the golden egg. They have confirmed they will pay out a dividend and on a quarterly basis now apparently like the oil companies do ?

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25378920-643,00.html

I know people who've bought at 70p who plan never to sell any. I think they should realise some profits just in case but if you thought Barclays was never to return to 70p then I guess it makes sense, theres a reasonable chance any fallback even a severe one would leave them above 1 pound now

However my own take is that under previous price movements related to massive capital shortages, they will need more capital and so the price will go down.
I dont have the choice to keep investing more money so to buy later I have to sell now and speculate on when its best to do so.
Same with Lloyds, they are doing a share issue at 38p so I sold a bit of them at 100p to pay for it




Between Barclays, Lloyds and RBS. RBS have issued massive amounts of new shares (5.93x), the price now does not relate to last years, Lloyds less so (2.8x) and at the same time they did swallow the uks biggest mortgage earner (potential value or not).
Barclays (1.13x) in comparison have only given out to date at least about 13% more shares with more in June coming I think

So right now the price for Barclays is at a premium to last years rights issue of 282p
The price rose after rights to 330 and onto 414 on the price surge in September, so that'd be the upper range imo



A trader would sell now I think to buy into other opportunitys that could grow as much so quickly. A value investor might hold. A speculator might buy in the hope of a mad surge upwards on dividends speculation.
Everyone should form their own perspective

I agree about always forming your own opinion because timing is related to risk and personal finances but I do think some guidance should be done with reference to news or company accounts or even just the chart and market volume





http://www.investorresearch.mdgms.com/factsheet/factsheet.html?ID_NOTATION=9454489

Good points there.

I think I'm thinking about selling some at some point soon. I'm hoping it will head back towards £3 with the Q1 update (I'm assuming it will be good, and may well make a statement about divis which may push the price up a bit further) then sell about half of the investment meaning that everything I have left are now "free shares" as I will have removed all of my initial investment and can reinvest elsewhere.

I agree that it may be towards the top end of its trading range at £3 but think it may just about touch it next week.

I will then be holding as a value investor and ensuring that my dividends are all reinvested. I'll leave them in for the foreseeable future, at least until the market has fully recovered.

Barclays will ultimately be a bigger bank at the end of all this due to the cheap as chips purchase of the Lehman assets that they bought. This should continue to drive profits this year as the market continues to stumble along and then hopefully start to recover completely.

Decadent_Fool

Good times

Decadent_Fool

Miss_R wrote: »

okay barclays is doing pretty well right now...bought at 84p, then 113p and 170p. Now i am thinking is this bubble going to burst or should i hold on some more and watch them rise some more or equally as possible fall??

it is official that at 23 i have learnt one of my first important lessons in trading DYOR and dont listen to the crowd if your gut instinct is telling you otherwise.

You may want to move your stops tight if you're not considering the long term

sabretoothtigger

One of these banks, Bank of America (BAC), the world’s second largest in terms of market capitalization, booked a first-quarter net income of $4.247 billion – 6% more than it made in all of 2008.

1. “Equity investment income includes a $1.9 billion pretax gain on the sale of China Construction Bank (CCB) shares.”

2. “Noninterest income included $2.2 billion in gains related to mark-to-market adjustments on certain Merrill Lynch structured notes as a result of credit spreads widening.”

http://www.kitcocasey.com/articles/2700/are-banks-going-bankrupt?--/



Stops are a horrible way to trade, just reduce risk and sell a bit I think is best. They are too volatile
Selftrade has the best stop loss Ive seen where the stop loss contains a price percentage argument for the actual final sale otherwise you could end up selling as the price gaps lower then rises strongly



Heres a guy who lost 7k on a share that ended up on the day
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVU0wJIkD1qc&refer=home