Is the Time to Invest in Banks approaching?

mrposhman

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Theres alot of leeway for people who bought near the bottom. I would just argue to take some advantage of price movements though its a bit risky you bare that risk anyway so might as well get some cashflow back.

If you sell 500 shares at high price and rebuy 500 at the lower price, you are reducing long term risk while maintaining the same profit.

The target price above is 46p ? seems a bit extreme but to me the fall back was quite likely, Im not so sure about it going below 100 or will it just settle around here now

In some shares it does seem they will touch new lows, I think the market in general will eventually break into a new low point but it might not apply to these bank shares which have already been through the wars.
Still if its going down some, might as well trade it a bit

I would suspect societe generale are shorting barclays and hence the reason for the overly bearish picture.

Its only days since the FSA said that they do not need to raise any more capital yet SG seem to think they need £20bn!!

StevieJ

mrposhman wrote: »

I would suspect societe generale are shorting barclays and hence the reason for the overly bearish picture.

Its only days since the FSA said that they do not need to raise any more capital yet SG seem to think they need £20bn!!

To be honest I would rather take the word of FSA who have been in there looking at the books, maybe SG have burnt fingers

sabretoothtigger

I think it depends on where the economy goes from here and how able Barclays is to make profits right now.
These are companies which could churn out 5bn in profits, doing so for the next 4 years would mean no further capital is required.

ishares apparently earns 600m a year but the spread on new loans is so high right now that raising 5bn capital and turning it into a profit would yield far more then 600m but how many people believe making a profit in the recession is possible, I do


SG are french, they probably hate barclays anyway
To short and then bad talk them would be dishonest or even fraudulent, I'd say their opinion is reasonable but possibly incorrect. Im surely Varley will give me a call as soon as he has a clue himself

Lloyds Banking Group (LBG) has announced a Capitalisation Issue on the following basis:

1 New LBG Ordinary share for every 40 Existing LBG Ordinary shares held as at close of business on the Record Date, 8th May 2009.
Shareholders approved the Capitalisation Issue at the General Meeting held on 19th November 2008.

The New LBG Ordinary shares are expected to be admitted to trading on the London Stock Exchange on 11th May 2009 and the New LBG shares are also expected to be credited to your account on, or shortly after, this date.

Unless you hold your shares in a ShareBuilder account no fractions of shares will be issued. Any entitlement to fractional shares will instead be rounded down to the nearest whole number.

Should you retain your holding in LBG we will update you when the New LBG shares have been credited to your account.

Aegis

Spam by JamesAnderson reported. Don't click on the link.

sabretoothtigger

Banks Rally Ahead Of Accounting Rule Change

Posted by Bob O'Brien

Shares of Morgan Stanley (MS) added 5% Wednesday, while Goldman Sachs (GS)has gone ahead 4%, Citigroup (C) advanced nearlyl 6%, and Bank of America (BAC) moved 3% higher.

The gains came as the Financial Accounting Standards Board spent the day reviewing the comments it received to its proposed rule change, a change that would allow banks to avoid the requirement to value assets at market value when those assets are being priced by an impaired market.

Analysts have suggested that, if the FASB approved the changes as it’s indicated, bank profits could rise as much as 20% in coming reporting periods, because it would give those banks more leeway to price those assets at what the bank believed them to be worth.

http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/



They did this in europe allready I think but not the uk?




Short position in Barclays I think:

TR-4(1): Disclosure of Short Position relating to UK Financial Sector Company(2)

1. Full name of person(s)
holding the disclosable Gbl Ascent European Industries (653064)

short position(3): 2: Name of the issuer of the
relevant securities Provident Financial Plc
3: Disclosable short 0.38%

position(4)
4. Date that disclosable 02 April 2009

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=news&code=cotn:BARC.L&action=article&articleid=7255220

April 1 (Reuters) - UK BANKS:

JP MORGAN CUTS ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND PRICE TARGET TO 17P FROM 25P;
rating underweight
JP MORGAN CUTS LLOYDS BANKING GROUP PRICE TARGET TO 14P FROM 67P;
rating underweight
JP MORGAN RAISES BARCLAYS PLC PRICE TARGET TO 115P FROM 114P; RATING
underweight

StevieJ

Those Barclays shares keep on a rising.

Reaper

Yes, and I'm kicking myself for being spineless.

I bought at 61p and had planned to sell at 150p but it was such a roller coaster ride (right down to what I had paid at one point) that I lost my nerve and sold at 115p

Now of course I wish I had stuck it out, but what the heck, I can't really complain about an 85% profit.

Now I just need to start some horrible rumour to get the price back down so I can start again... :idea: did you know Moody is about to downgrade them to FFF?

sabretoothtigger

You should hope the opposite, the higher they go the more likely its unfounded speculation and they'll fall back harder.
The retrace to 150 and then up again and moves like that makes the high price more likely to stick

If jan ftse was 4600 and we're struggling for 4100 then I guess there is still room to go though barclays is approaching the rights price of 284 and also the slippy slopes of sept, oct

motley wrote some ramping article about them going to 300, i cant find it but it sounds ridiculous. If the cvc bid was trumped or they sold off an entire division then that might do it I guess

What kind of dividend are people expecting from barclays, thats what should determine the price

Theres support at 200 and right now 221 judging by volume of price paid on recent moves

On 1 year and longer barclays is just operating in line with xlf. xlf was close to neutral but still holding fine last night. which banks declare results next?

***xyz***

Reaper wrote: »

Yes, and I'm kicking myself for being spineless.

I bought at 61p and had planned to sell at 150p but it was such a roller coaster ride (right down to what I had paid at one point) that I lost my nerve and sold at 115p

Now of course I wish I had stuck it out, but what the heck, I can't really complain about an 85% profit.

Now I just need to start some horrible rumour to get the price back down so I can start again... :idea: did you know Moody is about to downgrade them to FFF?

Lucky you lot!

I was in my works share save scheme and bought at the heady price of £4.44 a couple of years back.

Will they ever reach those dizzy prices again?!!

sabretoothtigger

They were 414 last Sept, they have a div in august i think so maybe they will see the best price then

Did you not buy any in the right issue?