Is the Time to Invest in Banks approaching?

StevieJ

tradetime wrote: »

If you're not sure where to sell, why not run a trailing stop and just let it run, possibly wouldn't work for the banks as they're uber volatile and you'd have to run the stop too wide, but should work for other things.

Thanks, I don't use stop losses but I may look at using them in the future. In choosing the companies I buy I tend to look for turning points e.g.

Shell/BP - Oil price drops 150 to 35
Rio Tinto - Bid dropped by BHP
Barclays This comment - JP Morgan boss just lashed out 11.5 million $ on company stock. Not Barclays or even the same country but interesting all the same, and possibly a !!!!! sector turning point.
Aviva - Was oversold

sabretoothtigger

I have some interest in BHP via an index fund but Im fairly clueless on how it'll move or why.
Arent the Chinese bidding for one of these companies and other resources in general

Rio Tinto rises on talk of new BHP Billiton bid

Market Report: Rio Tinto jumped 4pc amid speculation that BHP Billiton is keen to submit a new bid for its long-time rival.



By Ben Harrington
Last Updated: 9:11PM GMT 27 Mar 2009

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/marketreport/5063064/Rio-Tinto-rises-on-talk-of-new-BHP-Billiton-bid.html


Considering the drop in prices since last year (but not fundamentals?) I'd be more inclinded to back the bidder then the target of the bid

StevieJ

Thet have been sniffing around Rio Tinto, a good time to secure future resources.

tradetime

I have some interest in BHP via an index fund but Im fairly clueless on how it'll move or why.
Arent the Chinese bidding for one of these companies and other resources in general

Chinalco were bidding for Rio after the BHP bid fell through, but I believe that bid also failed.

I like resource producers, for the long term generally and have exposure through ETF's I also like Oil & Gas exploration / services companies, they were very beaten down.
Of course I also like commodities also in general.

So out of those mentioned I'd probably like BP and Shell, (though I haven't looked at their position, I don't hold any major oil producers)
Rio, yes, I hold in an ETF along with BHP and a lot of other producers
Aviva, no opinion, it's an insurance company isn't it? If so and they've been prudent they'll probably do well, I'd imagine many in the "financials sector" got unfairly beaten down along with the banks.

Barclays, wel it's a bank, think we've covered my opinion on them, but I'd say it is better positioned than Lloyds or RBS, but I still think there is too much unknowns in that group to invest.

JP Morgan, bank again, interestingly Jim Rogers is allegedly short JP Morgan, though as he says himself he's a lousy trader, so whether that is a case for undue concern I don't know.

sabretoothtigger

Parts of Scotland’s largest building society are to be put on the market after the government and regulators decided a rescue of the entire institution was not viable. The Dunfermline Building Society, which has assets of £3.3bn ($4.7bn) and 312,000 customers, is expected to announce annual losses of about £26m, due mainly to its exposure to the commercial property market, writes the FT.

The FTSE 100 giant Lloyds Banking Group is believed to have hired Deutsche Bank to run a review of its key insurance businesses. This could lead to the sale of famous names such as Clerical Medical later this year, says the Independent on Sunday.

Top institutional investors in BHP Billiton have given the management of the mining giant a "green light" to explore strategic acquisitions, including the possibility of re-opening bid talks with rival Rio Tinto, reports the Sunday Telegraph.

The government’s investment arm is planning a protest vote over the bumper £700,000-a-year pension awarded to former Royal Bank of Scotland boss Sir Fred Goodwin. UKFI, the body created to handle the government’s stakes in nationalised banks, is preparing to vote down the bank’s remuneration report at what promises to be a stormy annual meeting of the bank in Edinburgh on Friday, according to the Sunday Times.

Protest vote :laugh:



I think Jim Rogers is short on all the investment banks, that was last autumn and Paulson has closed his short position on banks afaik obviously because many couldnt fall any further like citi at below 1 dollar but jp morgan never fell terminally.

Wouldnt it be funny if Rogers were short on Goldman against Buffets pref shares, who does better

tradetime

Big week this week, end of quarter, lots of window dressing been going on, market (US wise) at a significant inflection point, very mixed signals between Nasdaq and S&P

sabretoothtigger

Societe Generale Downgrades Barclays To Sell [FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica,sans-serif]0610 GMT [Dow Jones] Societe Generale downgrades Barclays (BCS) to sell from hold. "Despite passing the FSA's stress test, we estimate Barclays needs GBP15B-20B of tangible common equity to address its excess leverage and strengthen its core Tier 1 capital ratio." Cuts price target to 46p from 100p. Shares closed Friday at 173.8p.
[/FONT]

Everything is down slightly but barclays does have a weaker tier 1 apparently, even lloyds beats it, etc

Bank of nigeria is your best bet at 17% tier 1 :T


I read Barclays wants no part in the asp, it somehow thinks these things will pull a profit?

Rolandtheroadie

After the couple of posts about holding, sold RBS this morning so that I can do more of what I intended to do. Buy shares, watch them rise (hopefully), sell shares.
Put 1/3 of the proceeds into Morissons, looking for another couple of companies (although I might buy into RBS again albeit on a smaller scale).

Decadent_Fool

Miss_R wrote: »

monday will be annoying as i wont have access to a computer so I wont have a clue what is going on!!!!!

Try not to be too downhearted when you check! I'm not sure what your entry point was, but take a deep breath, and see what you think about the future of the shares.

There'd have been a LOT of profit taking today as well

sabretoothtigger

Theres alot of leeway for people who bought near the bottom. I would just argue to take some advantage of price movements though its a bit risky you bare that risk anyway so might as well get some cashflow back.

If you sell 500 shares at high price and rebuy 500 at the lower price, you are reducing long term risk while maintaining the same profit.

The target price above is 46p ? seems a bit extreme but to me the fall back was quite likely, Im not so sure about it going below 100 or will it just settle around here now

In some shares it does seem they will touch new lows, I think the market in general will eventually break into a new low point but it might not apply to these bank shares which have already been through the wars.
Still if its going down some, might as well trade it a bit

Barclays spent the day among the largest losers ahead of tomorrow’s deadline for its decision on whether to participate in the government’s Assets Protection Scheme. Investors are also keen for news of the mooted sale of its iShares investment unit.

French broker Societe Generale is bearish. It reckons the government could end up owning as much as two-thirds of Barclays which it thinks needs to raise £20bn in new capital. It cut the shares to ‘sell’ and the target price to 46p.


Lloyds Banking and Royal Bank of Scotland, already part-nationalised, found the going tough, as did HSBC.

Sentiment towards the banking sector was also soured by the Spanish authorities bailing out regional savings bank Caja Castilla la Mancha and Nationwide’s government-backed rescue of the Dunfermline Building Society.

Insurers were friendless, with Old Mutual, Aviva and Legal & General reacting badly to the downturn in world stock markets. There are also fears that struggling carmaker General Motors could default on bond payments, causing a slump in the value of their corporate bond portfolios.