£ recovers to 1.095 v € : edit now 1.113

sabretoothtigger

Did europe have the same housing price boom as the uk?

Parts of the eu are also very strong with no deficit and then you consider collectively they are as big as usa basically and no wonder we suffer in comparison.

tradetime

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Did europe have the same housing price boom as the uk?

Parts of the eu are also very strong with no deficit and then you consider collectively they are as big as usa basically and no wonder we suffer in comparison.

Can't quote figure for you, but if you take France and Germany, property ownership is less of a fascination with them, and particularly in France, lending rules are much stricter than they were in UK. Ireland's property market is in a shambles, worse than here, though that may only be due to the fact that they entered the property downturn 6-12 months ahead of us, perhaps a warning of things to come here. Spain's property market is also a train wreck. As I tried to explain to someone elsewhere, the Eurozone is very vulnerable despite its size, remember this is a consortium of peoples who, how shall we say, possibly don't regard each other as highly as you would want when the fate of their currency relies on getting on well together.

gozomark

whats good for Germany right now is very different to whats good for Ireland, Spain and Italy. Germany can spend its way out of trouble as the Govt is running a small surplus, and would rather increase spending than cut interest rates. The other three are running big deficits, and the only way out of trouble as they can't devalue their currencies is lower interest rates. The "one size fits all" interest rate concept is coming under massive pressure.

Did europe have the same housing price boom as the uk? - theres the problem - some countries did, some didn't, so how can the same solution (ie interest rates and exchange rate policy) be applicable to all

purch

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9f80f414-e0da-11dd-b0e8-000077b07658.html

A eurozone country defaulting and leaving the euro is close to an unthinkable event. But Friday’s news from Standard & Poor’s that Greece and Ireland were on review for a possible downgrade, followed on Monday by Spain, left many thinking the unthinkable

gozomark

from the ft article

An Intrade prediction market future puts the odds on a current eurozone member leaving the euro by the end of next year at about 30 per cent.

I'm surprised no mention of Italy - see this Economist article
http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12851352
see chart 2

purch

I'm surprised no mention of Italy

Bl**dy Hell.........there'll be no one left soon !!!!!!

Should have just called it the Deutsche Mark in the first place, and saved all the bother.

tradetime

purch wrote: »

Bl**dy Hell.........there'll be no one left soon !!!!!!

Should have just called it the Deutsche Mark in the first place, and saved all the bother.

Funny, I was thinking the Germans might be the one to think about going it alone, given they are the strongest country in the Eurozone, and expected to contribute the most, it'll cost them a fortune to bail out Italy, Spain, Ireland, Greece, not to mention whoever else gets in and collapses.

gozomark

gozomark wrote: »

the 6 months before, and 1 month after bottoming in 1985

http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/cgi/fxplot?b=GBP&c=USD&rd=*&fd=1&fm=9&fy=1984&ld=31&lm=3&ly=1985&y=daily&q=volume&f=png&a=lin&m=0&x

and the last 3 months of £ €

http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/cgi/fxplot?b=GBP&c=EUR&rd=*&fd=1&fm=10&fy=2008&ld=28&lm=2&ly=2009&y=daily&q=volume&f=png&a=lin&m=0&x

above from 6/1, but chart will be updated)
pattern still holding - had a 50% pullback (it was more than 50% on the daily, but less on the weekly average),and now looking to retest the 1.125 high (in fact on a weekly av basis the high was 1.115)

http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/cgi/fxplot?b=GBP&c=EUR&rd=*&fd=1&fm=10&fy=2008&ld=28&lm=2&ly=2009&y=weekly&q=volume&f=png&a=lin&m=0&x

sabretoothtigger

tradetime wrote: »

Funny, I was thinking the Germans might be the one to think about going it alone, given they are the strongest country in the Eurozone, and expected to contribute the most, it'll cost them a fortune to bail out Italy, Spain, Ireland, Greece, not to mention whoever else gets in and collapses.

I was surprised how badly germany is estimated to suffer but they are an exporter so need the eu cross border trade?

tradetime

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

I was surprised how badly germany is estimated to suffer but they are an exporter so need the eu cross border trade?

Yes, the fixed exchange rate across all EU borders does significantly benefit Germany, I just don't know on balance how it pans out. It will be interesting to see how it all unfolds.