£ recovers to 1.095 v € : edit now 1.113

gozomark

those of you who were talking about selling £ and buying € in the last month

1. did you do so ?
2. did you manage to take profits (it bottomed out at 1.02 ish, and many of you were talking about trading at 1.08-1.12) ?
3. if not, what do you plan to do now ?

purch

Another "fashion" trade, after extensive research via the pages of "Money Mail"

gozomark

FWIW, I see 3 scenarios over the next 1-3 months

1. return to the lows, and probably break parity - 25% probability
2. stay around current levels - 25%
3. see a repeat of £:$ in 1984, and back to 1.20 50%

1984 was when the following happened

was trading at 1.45-1.50, and fell to 1.20-1.25, where it stayed for a while before collapsing towards parity - eveyone and his dog was saying parity was a certainty - it bottomed at 1.03 odd, (all sound familiar ?) - within a month was back at 1.20 (within 6 months was back above 1.40)
http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/cgi/fxplot?b=GBP&c=USD&rd=800&fd=1&fm=1&fy=1984&ld=31&lm=12&ly=1985&y=daily&q=volume&f=png&a=lin&m=0&x=

(I know I've not covered all eventualities, and yet add up to 100%, but you get the idea)

gozomark

Pound rises against euro as fears of parity ease

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/4139874/Pound-rises-against-euro-as-fears-of-parity-ease.html

The pound continued to strenghten against the euro after its biggest one-day rise against the single currency in nine years

when "everyone" is bearish, thats what can happen - who's left to sell ?

purch

1.0508 :rotfl: :rotfl: What a day !!!!!!!

gozomark

where is 1.0508 from ?

todays range is 1.075-1.098 - currently 1.089

gozomark

today's trading (with about 10 minute delay)

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/currency/11/13/intraday.stm

purch

where is 1.0508 from ?

That was the low trade of GBP/USD in 1984 :T

gozomark

oh right - sorry about that :-)

I've a feeling it went below that intra day in 1984, and that 1.0504 was the daily close low

gozomark

thats 1985 not 1984 - my mistake

gozomark

the 6 months before, and 1 month after bottoming in 1985

http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/cgi/fxplot?b=GBP&c=USD&rd=*&fd=1&fm=9&fy=1984&ld=31&lm=3&ly=1985&y=daily&q=volume&f=png&a=lin&m=0&x

and the last 3 months of £ €

http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/cgi/fxplot?b=GBP&c=EUR&rd=*&fd=1&fm=10&fy=2008&ld=28&lm=2&ly=2009&y=daily&q=volume&f=png&a=lin&m=0&x