Nationwide HPI: Dec 09 Down 2.5%

IveSeenTheLight

mitchaa wrote: »

So for arguments sake, i bought it for £100k in March and by completion time in June it was worth £110k, mythical figures here, had i made money or not?

I think the point most people have is that you havent actually made any money
I don't think you actually saved money between q1 and q2 2007 as in essence you would have bought at the q1 prices if there were no snags.

I do however fully understand your point that people talk about already being at 2004 figures for the UK average while you clearly show that a) you still have on paper equity in your home and b) that your area is still at 2007 / 2008 prices

mitchaa

stephen163 wrote: »

Michaa, if you agreed 'early in Q1' (as you originally said), I would have been convinced. Fact is, you agreed on a price very late in Q1 and the completion naturally spilled over into Q2 (as would the majority of all other transactions with an agreed price in March - there *is* a lag between agreeing a price for a property and actually getting to the post mortgage approval stage!). Thus most properties sold at market value in March would get included in the Q2 figures. (Someone please pick me up on this if that is wrong)

Because of the above, I argue that it is more accurate for you to use Q2 prices rather than Q1. If this argument is 'weak', please let me know.

Not at all, as you can then argue that i agreed on my sale price 61 days into the 91 day period of Q1 which does not put it late on in Q1.

My house would have been included in the Q2 stats for my area i agree, but having agreed a price in Q1, you simply cannot ignore the time frame between acceptance of bid and actual completion of the move.

In that time frame, the sellers would have lost out on HPI, but i suspect they would have been in the same boat with the chain above them so they would have also gained.

A lot can happen in 3 months, just like it is now, if you believe Halifax, prices have fallen around 7% or so in that time (last 3mths), it's the same going up aswell

I believe there is a big fuss at the moment with the vailidity of the valuations included in the new home packs in Scotland as they are changing quite sharply month in month out. Would the banks today accept a valuation carried out 3 months ago or would they want it reassessed? I suspect they would want it reassessed.

I cannot use Q2 figures as to me that would wipe out any of the gains i made whilst i was waiting and that is untrue to do so, hence my use of the Q1.

MissMoneypenny

poppy10 wrote: »

The point is, he was trying to claim that Aberdenshire was immune to the HPC, it's different here etc. In fact, as we all knew, Scotland was simply lagging the rest of the UK, as it always does- prices in Aberdeenshire only started falling from Q2 this year. A drop of 16% in Aberdeenshire, matching the UK figure, would take prices to below when he bought.

16% drop in 2008, but a staggering 18% drop since their peak.

"The building society says that as prices have now fallen for 14 months in a row they are 18% lower than their peak in October 2007. "
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7812108.stm

mitchaa

MissMoneypenny wrote: »

16% drop in 2008, but a staggering 18% drop since their peak.

"The building society says that as prices have now fallen for 14 months in a row they are 18% lower than their peak in October 2007. "
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7812108.stm

18% with the Nationwide
20% with the Halifax

So prices are down 19% on average according to these 2 big lenders.

Not to be sniffed at, but i suspect things will start to slow down now, otherwise Brit1234 and his 50+% gang will turn out to be not so mad at all;)

Im still in the 25-30% so not long to go now, another 9mths worth

SingleSue

I think I originally said about 15-20% so I am out already!
I have rethought it and now I haven't a blooming clue.....

IveSeenTheLight

SingleSue wrote: »

I think I originally said about 15-20% so I am out already!
I have rethought it and now I haven't a blooming clue.....

Don't worry, 99.99999999% of people on here are the same

FoxtonsRIP

The crash is clearly accelerating. We can fully expect a fall in house prices of at least 25% next year. :T

Generali

SingleSue wrote: »

I think I originally said about 15-20% so I am out already!
I have rethought it and now I haven't a blooming clue.....

Frankly nobody has. No economist had economic models written around house prices doubling and then the entire banking system being insolvent. As such, any attempt to come up with a concrete prediction is a guess at best.

You can come up with ideas like:

- Reversion to mean (house prices reverting to a long term average real value)
- HPER (House prices:earnings ratio, the average house price being a certain multiple of the average wage)
- Rental yield (Average house price being a certain multiple of the rent pa paid by a tenant)
Affordability (FTB or average mortgage payments being a certain %age of the average salary on average)

We are in a unique situation in economic history and nobody has a clue what'll happen next. I have my views, others have theirs but nobody knows what'll happen next.

What happens if the Russians get fed up with the Ukrainians stealing their gas and turns the taps off for example? That won't do the economies of Western Europe much good as they get the gas after the Ukraine. I bet not too many people have priced that into their predictions. What if the UK Government prints money to buy new mortgages off the banks? What if the UK Government is insolvent?

There are too many ifs for any predictions to be taken too seriously right now. It's fun to make and discuss them though.

Lotus-eater

I've always guessed around 30%, not including inflation losses. With 20% roughly down already, before mass redundancies, before recession really hits... who knows what we will have in the future?

I'm still sticking with the 30% figure for the moment, but I wouldn't at all be surprised if it went further now.

I think the average man in the street is only now really waking up to believe HIS house may be falling in value.

beecher

Generali wrote: »

There are too many ifs for any predictions to be taken too seriously right now. It's fun to make and discuss them though.

Yeah, none of us have a clue. That must be what is so scary for anyone who has an LTV of over 80%. I don't know where we're going to end up but I'd love to be a student of Economic History in the future looking back at this one!