Nationwide HPI: Dec 09 Down 2.5%

chucky

Generali wrote: »

The seasonal adjustment reduces the fall in the value of our mythical average house from 3.4% to 2.5% for the month. Given the collapse in the number of houses being sold it is very possible that things like the seasonal adjustment have broken down entirely. Of course the inaccuracy is as likely to be on the upside as the down.

would that be a sign of a stand-off ending and people starting to get mortgages approved? i would have expected December's figures to have been lower.

it's a question not a statement by the way... don't want the Mitchaa focus coming over my way...

chucky

mitchaa wrote: »

My post after yours explains and i do agree with you, bail out now before things get worse.

The only people that would suffer would be my wife and child due to a stressful move into rented.

What's the point, i've got plenty of time to make my riches, another 50+yrs in front of me yet.

some people would do this to save the potential loss - others would see the stability of the family life more important. i think your decision is better.

it shows the different values people have to save money at whatever cost.

poppy10_2

Generali wrote: »

If we've stopped baiting mitchaa (at least until the Halifax numbers come out) I've one for the conspiracy fans.

The seasonal adjustment reduces the fall in the value of our mythical average house from 3.4% to 2.5% for the month.

Yes, let's get this topic back on track. Good spot, Generali

Average house price
Nov 2008 £158,442
Oct 2008 £153,048
Drop = £5,394 = 3.4%

Last December the seasonal adjustment reduced the monthly fall from 1% to 0.5%; the December before it increased the monthly rise from 0.9% to 1.2%. It does seem like they've been increasing the SA factor.

Oh, and Ponting looks much more like Ian Hislop than George W:

WTF?_2

mitchaa wrote: »

My post after yours explains and i do agree with you, bail out now before things get worse.

The only people that would suffer would be my wife and child due to a stressful move into rented.

What's the point, i've got plenty of time to make my riches, another 50+yrs in front of me yet.

Mitch, you set yourself up for taking a slagging off with all your "Scotland is different, my job is 100% safe, things have never been better, I'm making loads of money" posts here.

Now reality is making its presence felt. Hopefully it won't impinge on your job the same way it has impinged on your unrealistic view of the property market.

IveSeenTheLight

poppy10 wrote: »

Fair enough. I was getting you confused with your buddy. Humble apologies

No, go on please.
Show the post. I doubt you can find one.
I've not seen anyone say Aberdeen was immune.
the closest I recall is sarcasm from those tagged as bears on here.

mitchaa

stephen163 wrote: »

Mitchaa - did you get to the post survey approval stage in Q1 or Q2?

No idea where you are going with this 1, i agreed a price with the sellers in the March of 2007, contracts exchanged June 2007. Survey obviously carried out prior to my bid as if you understand the buying process in Scotland and the offers over business it could leave you in for a nasty shock if you overbid and the surveyor does not agree with your overbid.

I'll leave this thread alone now as instead of focusing on the original point of this thread, it appears to be MSE vs Mitchaa, as much as i enjoy the banter im not going to take over yet another thread;)

Nationwide down 18%
Halifax down 20%

Over and out on this 1.

Generali

chucky wrote: »

would that be a sign of a stand-off ending and people starting to get mortgages approved? i would have expected December's figures to have been lower.

it's a question not a statement by the way... don't want the Mitchaa focus coming over my way...

Frankly, my feeling is that the monthly figures are little more than noise. YoY there has been a huge decline, that much is certain. Other than that take the numbers with a huge pinch of salt IMO.

I don't see how we can have an end to the stand off until significant numbers of properties start changing hands - approvals need to treble or quadruple from where we are now to get back to a normal level of transactions. At the present transaction rate, the average person would move (purchased) properties once every 30 years or so. A normal rate is every 8-10 years. For house prices to start rising again, net mortgage lending (not MEW) needs to rise by about 5% a year according to something I saw on fool.co.uk (no link, sorry).

I hope that the stagnation comes to an end - it must be terrible for people who have moved jobs to another part of the country who then can't bring there families with them for example.

It can't though until the mortgage market gets going again and that's not looking likely any time soon - if all the people with houses on the market we to drop prices by 30% and accept offers at that price, most would fall through as the banks don't have the cash to lend.

For BTLers, that's the real problem of investing in illiquid markets. Sometimes you can't really get out at any (realistic) price.

carolt

chucky wrote: »

some people would do this to save the potential loss - others would see the stability of the family life more important. i think your decision is better.

it shows the different values people have to save money at whatever cost.

Are there any STR's with families who post on here who've done that?

Don't know of any (grown up children don't count). All the ones I know of are single, like PN, or childless or with grown-up children.

Because moving home - whether from rented to buying or the reverse - is stressful, and especially so with children, the natural tendency is to stay put wherever you are, unless you need to move for practical reasons eg new job, baby, school etc etc or overwhelming financial reasons.

As mitchaa can afford his mortgage fine, AFAIK, I don't think anyone is suggesting he should sell now - just stop gloating about mythical HPI gains.

IveSeenTheLight

mitchaa wrote: »

For your info, Aberdeenshire house prices peaked in Q4 2007 with a figure of £166,476.

They have been falling all year, not from Q2 2008 as you incorrectly state.

Please try harder next time.

Yes they have fallen by a 'massive' 9.3% on the year, but this will only have affected me had i bought Q4 2007.

Your being a little harch on yourself Mitchaa.
aberdeenshire has not dropped 9.3%
According to the Registers of Scotland Executive Agency, the latest release in October shows they are down 2.10% YoY

chucky

Generali wrote: »

Frankly, my feeling is that the monthly figures are little more than noise. YoY there has been a huge decline, that much is certain. Other than that take the numbers with a huge pinch of salt IMO.

Agree - monthly figures are not indicative. The last few months have been indicating the trend clearly though.

Generali wrote: »

I don't see how we can have an end to the stand off until significant numbers of properties start changing hands - approvals need to treble or quadruple from where we are now to get back to a normal level of transactions. At the present transaction rate, the average person would move (purchased) properties once every 30 years or so. A normal rate is every 8-10 years. For house prices to start rising again, net mortgage lending (not MEW) needs to rise by about 5% a year according to something I saw on fool.co.uk (no link, sorry).

The low volumes make it even more dificult to understand and fully appreciate the actual market.

Prices (Mortgage Approval prices) are falling but due to the low volumes you really have to take them with a large pinch of salt.

However in saying that they currently do correlate with the LR numbers.