2004...My Ar*e....Make Your Predictions...

stevetodd

ad9898 wrote: »

I agree, sounds a bit like a Grant Bovey comment, we know whats happened to him.

I don't think so as Kenny is talking about buying at deflated prices and looking to make money in the long run, whereas Grant Bovey was relying on prices continuing to rise in an already heavily inflated market. In fact they are entirely opposite situations. I do think Kenny is slightly optimistic at the timing of the recovery, but that doesn't matter for someone who is looking to hold property until the 2020's.

ad9898_3

stevetodd wrote: »

I don't think so as Kenny is talking about buying at deflated prices and looking to make money in the long run, whereas Grant Bovey was relying on prices continuing to rise in an already heavily inflated market. In fact they are entirely opposite situations. I do think Kenny is slightly optimistic at the timing of the recovery, but that doesn't matter for someone who is looking to hold property until the 2020's.

A fair point, I just don't think buying a house/houses in July/August is a good investment, you are almost certain to lose in the short term and push the time out in the long term before you actually see any gains.

lethal0r

what a pile of !!!!. another "the indices arent falling at EXACTLY the same rate so theyre not saying the same thing" post.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7812108.stm

haliwide say late 2004 / early 2005 thats the same !!!!!!!g thing to me.

carolt

beingjdc wrote: »

Oopsy! So much for not going back to 2004.

mitchaa! mitchaa???

Gone awful quiet this morning........

Are you going to change your highly amusing thread title given this month's news from Nationwide?

Ooops.

(snigger - sorry, can't help it)

Kenny4315

ad9898 wrote: »

A fair point, I just don't think buying a house/houses in July/August is a good investment, you are almost certain to lose in the short term and push the time out in the long term before you actually see any gains.

July/August is a guide to when the bulk of the fall will have occurred, I think between now and then we are talking about 15%, I'll be able to bargain down with hard cash an extra 10% maybe more, so that's 18% + 15% + 10% around 43% in other words BELOW my bottom of the market. What you forget is when your in a cash position/or have secure finance, you can do whatever deal you like, or walk away.

For instance, the house I developed I bought at sealed bids, I was the only one who could do the deal within 4 weeks, but not the highest bidder, who was £40k higher than me but was not in a 'true' buying position.

Don't miss the boat, there is plenty of money around still, investors have it tucked away for a rainy day and guess what it's raining. :money:

beecher

mitchaa wrote: »

Admittedly, Nationwides Dec figures have not yet been released but at the worst i can't imagine them going any lower than early 2005.

Hopefully realising that the figures are in fact now at 2004 levels will give you pause to reflect mitchaa. I really hope they do as I think your posts really could benefit from a bit of humility and perspective.

ad9898_3

Kenny4315 wrote: »

Don't miss the boat, there is plenty of money around still, investors have it tucked away for a rainy day and guess what it's raining. :money:

No need to worry about me Kenny, I have my binoculars out looking at the horizon, no boat of any kind there yet and even if their was it will be moving so slowly anyone with good credit/savings will have all the time in the world to hop on. I have seen the type of house I would like, there are 2-3 up for sale now in my area, I could put an offer in on any one of them and have the available funds for a 65% LTV mortgage within 4-5 weeks.

Now with the bottom of previous crashes being 4-5 years, it's unlikely that the bottom of this crash is going to be 4-5 weeks:D.

stephen163

Is it worth pointing out that when adjusted for inflation, we are actually now back at 2003 Q3 levels. The average house price today is the same as the average house price at the end of Q3 2003.

drbeat

ad9898 wrote: »

will you have a job to take advantage ?

Did you have a job in 2001?

jackieb

House prices in Scotland grew 0.1% in Q4 2008. http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Q4_2008.pdf

Does it make a difference if house prices were lower and slower to rise than other parts of the country? House prices here only dramatically grew in the past 3 years or so. When I bought a house in 1995 it was valued at £34k. When I remorgaged in 2004 it was still only valued at £45k (and that was after adding double glazing in 1996 and a loft conversion in 2000). As i've said before, we sold it in June last year for £105k.