2004...My Ar*e....Make Your Predictions...

mitchaa

The latest Halifax figures achieved widespread media attention last week, primarily due to the headline ''fact'' that house prices were back at 2004 levels:rolleyes:

When we look at the Nationwide house price information, a different picture is painted....

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/indices-nationwide-national-inflation.php

An average house price of £158-£159k puts us at between Q4 2005 and Q1 2006 on their scale. Admittedly, Nationwides Dec figures have not yet been released but at the worst i can't imagine them going any lower than early 2005.

For anyone who is getting excited by all this, look at the price differences between 2003 and 2004:rotfl: Anyone who thinks they are going back to pre 2003 levels has a screw loose and anyone who thinks they are going back to pre 2000 levels needs locking up;)

I can't believe there are people out there that would base their house price on 1 set of data, especially when it contradicts that of another.

As an average UK wide, I think we are going back to Q1 2004 levels, In the poll 2004 (1) What is your prediction.....

2008 Q3...£165,188
2008 Q2...£174,514
2008 Q1...£179,363
2007 Q4...£183,959
2007 Q3...£184,131
2007 Q2...£181,810
2007 Q1...£175,554
2006 Q4...£172,065
2006 Q3...£168,460
2006 Q2...£165,035
2006 Q1...£160,319.....Where We Are Now
2005 Q4...£157,387.....Where We Are Now
2005 Q3...£157,627
2005 Q2...£157,494
2005 Q1...£152,790
2004 Q4...£152,464
2004 Q3...£153,482
2004 Q2...£148,462
2004 Q1...£140,225
2003 Q4...£133,903
2003 Q3...£129,761
2003 Q2...£125,382
2003 Q1...£119,938
2002 Q4...£115,940
2002 Q3...£110,830
2002 Q2...£103,501
2002 Q1...£95,356
2001 Q4...£92,533
2001 Q3...£91,049
2001 Q2...£87,638
2001 Q1...£83,976
2000 Q4...£81,628
2000 Q3...£80,935
2000 Q2...£81,202
2000 Q1...£77,698

LilacPixie

In terms of 'average' price or area specific??

beecher

2001 where I live, can't say for the 'average' house/area

bo_drinker

Looking at Nethouseprices in an area we are trying to buy at present they do seem to be at 04 prices now, that is a sought after area. I don't think it will be across the board, some lower maybe. Not that much as there is a fair gap to 03.

Conrad

mitchaa wrote: »

Anyone who thinks they are going back to pre 2003 levels has a screw loose and anyone who thinks they are going back to pre 2000 levels need locking up;)

Pennies from heaven came, but cannot return, is that what you argue?:rotfl:

Get this, prices reflect money supply, and the supply has been severly stemmed, so you'll never guess what? Prices will fall back until they match the money inflow.:T

Scotland if anything will be one of the worst affected domaines, what with all those expensive labour provisions deterring business.

mitchaa

Conrad wrote: »

Pennies from heaven came, but cannot return, is that what you argue?:rotfl:

If this were the case they would go down in the same timeframe that they went up, seeing as there are a few loonies on here that predict pre 2000 and 2001 levels there are 5 or 6 years worth of continual drops heading our way.

And here's me thinking Sept 2009 was the bottom;)

Cannon_Fodder

mitchaa wrote: »

The latest Halifax figures achieved widespread media attention last week, primarily due to the headline ''fact'' that house prices were back at 2004 levels:rolleyes:

What happens when we look at the Nationwide house price info.....

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/indices-nationwide-national-inflation.php

An average house price of £158-£159k puts us at between Q4 2005 and Q1 2006 on their scale. Admittedly, Nationwides Dec figures have not yet been released but at the worst i can't imagine them going any lower than early 2005.

For anyone who is getting excited by all this, look at the price differences between 2003 and 2004:rotfl: Anyone who thinks they are going back to pre 2003 levels has a screw loose and anyone who thinks they are going back to pre 2000 levels needs locking up;)

I can't believe there are people out there that would base their house price on 1 set of data, especially when it contradicts that of another.

As an average UK wide, I think we are going back to Q1 2004 levels, In the poll 2004 (1) What is your prediction.....

2008 Q3...£165,188
2008 Q2...£174,514
etc
2006 Q2...£165,035
2006 Q1...£160,319.....Where We Are Now
2005 Q4...£157,387.....Where We Are Now
2005 Q3...£157,627
etc
2000 Q2...£81,202
2000 Q1...£77,698

A surprisingly long and detailed expose of why prices cannot fall much further, from someone who not so long ago was denying the possibility at all...?

Just consider your own conversion of attitude...then try to visualise the whole country slowly changing its mind from the "only ever go up" view, to the "how long until we are in NE" concern...

Trying to predict the length of time that that negative sentiment will prevail is futile.

- liking futile endeavours, I will say Spring 2010 for sentiment to turn, offering some green shoots, plus the bonus of enough people in their 3rd Xmas stuck in the house they don't want saying "stuff it lets sell, our next house is cheaper, anyway"...

Which means 12-15 months of further drops, not always 2% like Halifax, but around -18% over the year...

Makes -30%ish over the length of crash = roughly Q3 2003.

Pre-2003 is ambitious, I agree. But I will not say anyone with such a prediction is wrong. Because it is pure speculation and guesswork.

Enough unthinkable things have already happened in the last 12 months for the events of the next 12 months to be an education for us all, in what can go wrong.

BlondeHeadOn

Just to be contentious (and because I'm in a dour Monday sort of mood) I voted for the '2000 and before' option - and I was amazed to find that I was not the only one! I thought I was being madly pessimistic, but it seems I am not alone. Unless the other '2000' voters were just being uppity as well......

Maybe a cold January Monday is not the best time to run a poll like this?

:rotfl:

mitchaa

Average house price of less than £77k, i'll have 3 or 4 then:p

Might buy them altogether, join them up and have a 15 bed mansion for under £300k:rotfl:

Laughing_man

Just looking at a list of numbers and thinking 'I just can't see much more than 40k from peak coming off, anyone who disagrees is probably !!!!!!' doesn't quite meet the high analytical standard I've come to expect from this board.

You have not provided any reason for why that figure is a natural bottom to the bottom of the market or what factors are going to kick in to support prices at that level.




Looking at the nationwide graph, if prices were to trough at the level you suggest this would be the shortest, steepest, but overall least severe correction in the u.k proerty market ever. With all the evidence of a protracted, possibly even global, recession developing in the wider economy, a financial system that has been very badly damaged and not even a moderation of the pace of house price decilnes here or in the states your optimistic prediction does not seem too likely to me.
But then I have a screw loose and should probably be commited.

mitchaa

Laughing_man wrote: »

Just looking at a list of numbers and thinking 'I just can't see much more than 40k from peak coming off, anyone who disagrees is probably !!!!!!' doesn't quite meet the high analytical standard I've come to expect from this board.

You have not provided any reason for why that figure is a natural bottom to the bottom of the market or what factors are going to kick in to support prices at that level.




Looking at the nationwide graph, if prices were to trough at the level you suggest this would be the shortest, steepest, but overall least severe correction in the u.k proerty market ever. With all the evidence of a protracted, possibly even global, recession developing in the wider economy, a financial system that has been very badly damaged and not even a moderation of the pace of house price decilnes here or in the states your optimistic prediction does not seem too likely to me.
But then I have a screw loose and should probably be commited.

So according to the red trend line, house prices should be at around £145k in 2008. The red line will continue to rise in 2009, 2010 etc so there will be that familiar undershoot when prices bottom at £140k

2010 the red line will be showing £160k or thereabouts, houses will be at £140k. Undershoot will be evident as the graph progresses.

NEXT!!!

Yes anyone who does predict £100k and below has a screw loose somewhere, you heard it here first;) Those that predict 2000 and before are obviously at the wind up.

Laughingman...If you have read any of my previous postings i have explained myself thoroughly as to why we will not stay at the bottom for long. How many 32yr old doctors do you know still living at home with their parents? Seems to be quite normal in todays age, was it normal back in the crash of the 90's?

What about our attitude towards housing and the greed culture that we now live in? BTL investments and property development have increased 10 fold over the last 15yrs or so. There are people itching to buy, we are in a culture where owning our homes is seen as a must. As soon as the bottom has been realised, what do you think will happen? People will flood the market and prices will begin to rise, it will be much quicker this time. Expect 2007 house prices back again in late 2011.

I wont go on.