2004...My Ar*e....Make Your Predictions...

torontoboy45

Laughing_man wrote: »

Just looking at a list of numbers and thinking 'I just can't see much more than 40k from peak coming off, anyone who disagrees is probably !!!!!!' doesn't quite meet the high analytical standard I've come to expect from this board.

You have not provided any reason for why that figure is a natural bottom to the bottom of the market or what factors are going to kick in to support prices at that level.




Looking at the nationwide graph, if prices were to trough at the level you suggest this would be the shortest, steepest, but overall least severe correction in the u.k proerty market ever. With all the evidence of a protracted, possibly even global, recession developing in the wider economy, a financial system that has been very badly damaged and not even a moderation of the pace of house price decilnes here or in the states your optimistic prediction does not seem too likely to me.
But then I have a screw loose and should probably be commited.

rationally argued.

now please move over and make room for me in the padded cell.

I've just voted 2001.

barginpleasure

I remember watching a Tonight with Trevor McDonald about this and the guy give him his due was right it crashed as said when demand was lower than supply and the money has run out!!

I have to say though not wanting to rustle some feathers but is it denial when people cant accept that the prices are dropping. Getting close to the negative equity? I have been watching my local property website and the houses 3 or 4 beds up for sale on offers over (Scotland) have dropped around £30,000 over the last 3 months.

There is a flat in the same block as my g/f old one that she sold last April it has 2 beds hers only had 1 and it is on for £3000 less than she got for hers! Are we glad she sold it when she did!

I take it we will all be watching Tonight, tonight to get tips?
http://www.itv.com/News/tonight/episodes/Livingwithout/default.html

beecher

barginpleasure wrote: »

I have to say though not wanting to rustle some feathers but is it denial when people cant accept that the prices are dropping.

It is definitely denial. I have a friend who took out a 125% mortgage 2 years ago and who is convinced her tiny attic flat will have gained value. If her LTV was 50% I'm sure she'd be more realistic.

abaxas

"2004...My Ar*e....Make Your Predictions..."

My prediction is that your !!!! was slighly less fat and more toned than it is today.

mystic_trev

Looks like mitchaa's in for a few nights with Bruno and his umbrella!

jackieb

Prices haven't moved much here at all - but they're definitely taking longer to sell. We sold our house in June for O/O £95k and we got £105k for it (after 1 day). An identical house was on O/O £115k a few months ago. They've since changed it to a fixed price of £119k and unsurprisingly it's still not gone. Usually these houses sell pretty fast. Maybe we're different up here (Aberdeenshire) but not that different surely? Those sellers must have been aware what our one went for, and with the current climate I can't see why they want so much more for their one. Totally unrealistic. But yet the prices don't seem to be coming down here, even though the houses are selling much, much slower.

When we were looking at houses just over a year ago we saw one for O/O £195k. It sold after a few weeks. There is a brand new identical one on the same street for sale now at O/O £265k!

mitchaa

abaxas wrote: »

"2004...My Ar*e....Make Your Predictions..."

My prediction is that your !!!! was slighly less fat and more toned than it is today.

Late 2007 round my neck of the woods my friend:p

mitchaa

mystic_trev wrote: »

Looks like mitchaa's in for a few nights with Bruno and his umbrella!

Not backing down to peer pressure, i'm glad to be different and will shout all day and night about my beliefs.

1 against 100, i really dont care. When this 1 turns out to be correct, and you 100 turn out to be wrong, i'll just sit here with a smug little grin:D

Prove me otherwise and i'll shut up.

Thing is, no-one can as it's all guesswork:p

I wish i made this poll public now, i can see folk are at the windup:rolleyes:

Twopints

mitchaa wrote: »

So according to the red trend line, house prices should be at around £145k in 2008. The red line will continue to rise in 2009, 2010 etc so there will be that familiar undershoot when prices bottom at £140k

2010 the red line will be showing £160k or thereabouts, houses will be at £140k. Undershoot will be evident as the graph progresses.

Isn't the red line a trend based on actual results, not a prediction of future prices? So when prices drop further in 2009, 2010 etc the red line will just be re-drawn to show the revised trend.

mitchaa

Twopints wrote: »

Isn't the red line a trend based on actual results, not a prediction of future prices? So when prices drop further in 2009, 2010 etc the red line will just be re-drawn to show the revised trend.

Do you see a past downward trend in that upward red line?

The undershoots may not come apparant for a good few years yet;)