Halifax December Figures -2.2%

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mitchaa wrote: »

Now now, where has the extra 0.2% come from:rotfl:

Simple maths...

£159,896/£199,770 = 0.800400, so if you want to be pedantic its not quite showing 20%, its actually 19.99%;)

12 months coming drops certain? Im not so sure, houses really are getting very close to affordability NOW. Im not saying there wont be more declines, but im pretty sure there wont be another 12 months worth.

Come on mitchaa, what's .2% between friends:D, these figures wer probably calculated before Christmas, which means you can probably add another .5% to it as of today.

Just to edit. Sentiment has changed, recession and job losses are looming large, mortgage availability is shrinking and will continue to shrink through 2009, even if houses were getting close to affordability(and I disagree), nobody wants to buy under that sort of cloud.
Why do I say that ?, because I'm one of them.

poppy10_2

mitchaa wrote: »

houses really are getting very close to affordability NOW.

No they aren't. A return to the long-term affordability ratio would make average house prices closer to £120k.

mitchaa wrote: »

Im not saying there wont be more declines, but im pretty sure there wont be another 12 months worth.

I'm pretty sure there will. See you here in a years time to find out who was right! :beer:

beingjdc

mramra wrote: »

The quoted house price drops are a little bizarre. The article states prices are back to Aug 2004 levels. We bought our house in May 2004, but asking prices for similar properties on our estate are still 25% higher than we paid for ours in May 04.

Now I know these are asking prices and to some extent will be unrealistic but 25% is a large gap between asking and realistic pricing isn't it?

There's a flat in the block where I used to own, functionally identical to mine but a bit nicer decoration.

I paid £82,500 in December 2003. It's on the market for £104,995.

However, it's been on since February (started at £109,995), it's not shifting, and there are nicer places nearby available for about £75k!

For detail, I sold for £95k in the Summer of 2005, the people who bought did it up and sold again quickly for £110k.

geoffky

mramra wrote: »

The quoted house price drops are a little bizarre. The article states prices are back to Aug 2004 levels. We bought our house in May 2004, but asking prices for similar properties on our estate are still 25% higher than we paid for ours in May 04.

Now I know these are asking prices and to some extent will be unrealistic but 25% is a large gap between asking and realistic pricing isn't it?

If YOU look at sold prices thats what is happening on the ground and if you have a listen to this programme you will find 25% is about right

http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/youandyours/listenagain/tuesday.shtml

mitchaa

poppy10 wrote: »

No they aren't. A return to the long-term affordability ratio would make average house prices closer to £120k.

Based on what?

Average UK household income is £37k, multiply this by 3.5 and you have £130k. Add on the 10% deposit required and you then have affordability ITRO £144k.

We are currently at £158-£159k so a further 10% will see us at Low to mid £140k levels

I could go 1 step further and state that the UK average wage is £26k, Mr Average with his £26k and Mrs Average with her £26k go out and buy that average home.

£52k combined income x 2.5 = £130k + 10% deposit and you are back at £144k lending

But i wont get into that 1 any further;)

The 3.5x multiple is very conservative aswell, C+G are currently offering multiples of upto 5x joint (Yes still)

Affordability is ITRO of £140k, no questions about it. Unless of course you can prove otherwise:p

Did you read the part in the BBC article in the 1st post stating how affordable house prices currently are??

Cat695

StevieJ wrote: »

But not cash buyers, and great if you are going to buy a repo.

erm if i was buying cash I would be getting more than 16% off....or would i not??

mitchaa

Cat695 wrote: »

erm if i was buying cash I would be getting more than 16% off....or would i not??

I do not understand the logic behind the thought of bigger discounts for cash buying:rolleyes:

It's exactly the same as a FTB with a mortgage, i.e no chain.

Cat695

mitchaa wrote: »

I do not understand the logic behind the thought of bigger discounts for cash buying:rolleyes:

It's exactly the same as a FTB with a mortgage, i.e no chain.

MMMMm if I opened a suitcase with 200K in it or said I have to get a mortgage first....I think you would be willing to offer me a little more discount don't you

poppy10_2

mitchaa wrote: »

Average UK household income is £37k

You're assuming a large proportion of households have two wage earners there.That's true, but it's not always through choice. Both members of the couple have had to work in order to fund the high purchase cost of housing; to suggest that house prices will therefore remain high because both people are working is a circular argument. Many couple would love for one member to be able to stay at home to look after the kids and run the house, and traditionally, before the current boom, that was a feasible option.

Did you read the part in the BBC article in the 1st post stating how affordable house prices currently are??

Houses are still a long way away from being affordable. Stripping out the mania of the last five years, the long term average for house prices is 3.6x average earnings. Which places the average house price at around £120k.

neverdespairgirl

mitchaa wrote: »

Nationwide £158,442 (Nov 08)
Halifax £159,896 (Dec 08)
.

as you reckon prices won't go below £150k, they must stop dropping soon....