House Prices Only Set To Fall By Maximum 20% In Total

clobber_2

bigfatbelly wrote: »

So we're looking at 20% reductions from the peak which I suppose is about right.:money:

Please take your dancing martins back to the DFW board, those of us with ropey eyes find them really quite annoying.

islandannie

ad9898 wrote: »

I see this argument all the time, their was a 35 fold increase in BTL since '97, most were amateurs using HPI in their own property to finance BTL. Unfortunately for them, this finance model is now dead, as are their finances if they did it in the last 3 years.:D

The point I'm making is you maybe a 'cash rich mortgage free multiple property owner landlord' but most are/were not. You, personally, may do very well but there are not enough of you to steer the 'oil tanker/housing market' back towards the calm seas of HPI.

The crash will see property down 40% on average by Dec 2009, so if you are telling the truth in your post, rejoice, but with a 4-5 year window at least when prices finally bottom out, to hop aboard the property boat, no one with good credit/savings will be priced out.

Just to edit..... I don't see anything doom mongerish about falling house prices, it's better for the whole country in the long run, it's just short term where the pain lies.

You misread.

I and many thousands of others are NOT btl.

I will decide when the market has reached it,s zenith,whether i am right or wrong is my calculation.

mewbie_2

islandannie wrote: »

I will decide when the market has reached it,s zenith,whether i am right or wrong is my calculation.

I think Zenith means high point. Just thought you'd also like to know.

islandannie

The Crest of A slump.

islandannie

No one will outbuy me when prices slump because i have money and they have not..

True or False?

ad9898_3

islandannie wrote: »

You misread.

I and many thousands of others are NOT btl.

I will decide when the market has reached it,s zenith,whether i am right or wrong is my calculation.

Apologies.

However I stand by my prediction that even though the likes of yourself will do well, there isn't enough of you, nor is there the appetite on mass to do it, sentiment has changed, the last decade was property !!!!!! on steroids, the next decade will be the opposite. I guess time will tell which one of us is correct.

mewbie_2

islandannie wrote: »

The Crest of A slump.

But Crest also means the high point. As in Crest of a wave, or mountain perhaps. Whereas a slump is a low point.

I am being deliberately obtuse here of course.

chucky

ad9898 wrote: »

I see this argument all the time, their was a 35 fold increase in BTL since '97, most were amateurs using HPI in their own property to finance BTL. Unfortunately for them, this finance model is now dead, as are their finances if they did it in the last 3 years.:D

The point I'm making is you maybe a 'cash rich mortgage free multiple property owner landlord' but most are/were not. You, personally, may do very well but there are not enough of you to steer the 'oil tanker/housing market' back towards the calm seas of HPI.

The crash will see property down 40% on average by Dec 2009, so if you are telling the truth in your post, rejoice, but with a 4-5 year window at least when prices finally bottom out, to hop aboard the property boat, no one with good credit/savings will be priced out.

Just to edit..... I don't see anything doom mongerish about falling house prices, it's better for the whole country in the long run, it's just short term where the pain lies.

Ad, i wouldn't totally disregard the amount of cash still floating around ready to be invested. To be fair to your point I don't think it will go immediately into property because as you say prices will flatten out for a good while before they move upwards.

the below link believes it will go into equities but in time will go back into property
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=aHYVLN8ZJtsc&refer=home

Airwolf1

Cat695 wrote: »

erm didn't halifax and nationwide put the HP at being around 14% off peak this year???

I rather believe a bank and LR than a newspaper

Update halifax are saying 14.9% as of november this year

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/HousingResearch.asp

and we're currently at 2005 for average house prices (£163,605)

Is that mentioned on the site too? Can you provide a link please?

islandannie

ad9898 wrote: »

Apologies.

However I stand by my prediction that even though the likes of yourself will do well, there isn't enough of you, nor is there the appetite on mass to do it, sentiment has changed, the last decade was property !!!!!! on steroids, the next decade will be the opposite. I guess time will tell which one of us is correct.

Then I have great respect for buyers in that situation.

However it will nor reflect the market as far as i am concerned.

Good quality social Landlords like me should be applauded.