Lenders axe house price forecast

ShelleyC_2

mewbie wrote: »

Nearly right.

"Mr Gordon is a financial tit"

:rotfl: oh so true :rotfl:

scousethife

Their predictions were allways aimed at ramping prices and scaring people into jumping on the market.

Now they know any truthfull (downward predictions) wont help that they have binned it off.

They arnt lying as such, its more like, if you shot someone and then claimed to be inocent as it was the gun that killed them.

IveSeenTheLight

mystic_trev wrote: »

Nationwide and Halifax

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7791391.stm

Both have said they'll let us know their 2009 forecasts at the end of next year :rolleyes:

This is vecause

Things are changing so rapidly in the market, which makes it very difficult to forecast," said a Nationwide spokeswoman.

Prices could quite easily drop another 10, 15 or 20%, but there also could be a stabalisation in the house price falls as seen from some recent reports such as NatWest lending 100% mortgages again to existing customers.

The effect on the market changed daily from measure to re-stimulate the market, to job losses, to bank takeovers, to fiscal stimulus etc, that it is too hard for people to see into their cludy crystal balls.

They will predict again when the dust settles.

IveSeenTheLight

sarkin wrote: »

Dont worry people I can take care of this one

Sarkin's predictions for next year will be that house prices will go off a cliff, down 20%. Oh hang on that was this year er um ok. Yeah i think it would be best if I refrain from giving a prediction as its going to be a bloodbath and I dont want the blame. Plus I am going to look stupid if I say up 5% for 2 years running.

Pathetic

But according to LR, the market is only down 10.1% for the annual change

IveSeenTheLight

BenL wrote: »

2009 is going to be rubbish without the monthly Nationwide and Halifax reports being posted on here.

I suppose we could make up our own figures if nothing is officially reported, works well for government.

You could of course use the better Land Registry and Registers of Scotland Executive Agency figures.

Ok, they are a couple of months old, but still better to have actual figures than those from a couple of institutions based on approved mortgages

Kez100

It is fair enough not commenting. The government has fiddled with so many fundamentals who knows what the effect will be. I think falls will be 30-40 from peak but govt intervention will slow decline this making it more painful for estate agents, construction etc but less painful for homeowners.

carolt

Oh ISTL, you know perfectly well the LR figures don't include auctions, where a lot of the market is these days...

Here's what Citigroup had to say on house price predictions; and they're not too scared to state:

"Citigroup today forecast a further drop of 15% in house prices next year, which will be bad news for homeowners and builders.Higher unemployment, shortage of mortgage availability and weaker consumer confidence will all contribute to making 2009 another difficult year, says Citi. Lower interest rates will only help marginally, the US broking giant insists."
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-business/article-23605143-details/Market+report%3A+Citigroup+spots+safety+in+builders+amid+tough+times/article.do

skap7309

Lotus-eater wrote: »

The monthly figures will still be posted, along with the "comparing to olden times" mention, won't they?

With that here are the 2009 headlines -

Jan 2009 - House prices fell 1.9% last month, however they are still 10% higher than when the Beatles were formed.
March 2009 - House prices fell 1.7% last month, however they are still 16% higher than WW2.
July 2009 - House prices fell 2.1% last month, however they are still 32% higher than 2 years after the Great Fire of London.
November 2009 - House prices fell 1.8% last month, however they are still 29% higher than when the Battle of Hastings began in 1066.

You get the idea.

IveSeenTheLight

carolt wrote: »

Oh ISTL, you know perfectly well the LR figures don't include auctions, where a lot of the market is these days...

So discount LR figures then I dont think most of England and Wales do.

Where are the stats for auctions throughout the UK and in specific regions then?

Will you only be buying an auction house when the market bottoms since its obviously the best financial way to go ?

P.S. didn't say prices wouldn't drop next year

P.P.S do you think all those buying from auction houses get mortgages from Halifax or Nationwide?

skap7309

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

But according to LR, the market is only down 10.1% for the annual change

A good point that table shows though is that it only took 5 months to go from positive YoY to over 10% negative YoY. What will it look like in 12 months time?