Dow

sabretoothtigger

Very long trend line showing secular bulls and bears. So the last secular bull after the twenties was the sixities then it wasnt till the tech boom in 96 that we lurched into a secular bull.
Does this mean we're doomed to stay below the red line for a decade or so now (which would mean this latest rally must fail)




The red line shown probably indicates similar to the ftse of about 3% growth average (data back to 1984 only)


~
s&p comp
1955 - 36.75
2009 - 902.99
'Compound Interest' aka red line = 1.68%







http://dshort.com/charts/SP-Composite-secular-bull-bear-markets.html?SP-Composite-secular-trends-with-regression

StevieJ

Hey Kez how you doing?

bubblesmoney

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Does this mean we're doomed to stay below the red line for a decade or so now (which would mean this latest rally must fail)

i dont know about the down turn lasting a decade but i feel the rally will fail predominantly because of the jobless situation which seems to be accelerating again after a brief lull in the storm. the mass layoff situation seems to be accelerating. no amount of talking up the situation by politicians will change the outcome till there is some sustained improvement in the jobless situation.

sabretoothtigger

down turn lasting a decade

I wasnt really saying that exactly and actually theres an article behind that graph that people should read.
http://dshort.com/articles/2009/QA-on-secular-markets.html
(are we at 1970)

As an asset class specific in america or the uk, average stock growth might be below 1.68% in future or whatever, it'll be relatively slow but still positive maybe

Also on a previous page it was shown that long term and maybe much more true in a secular bull market is that dividends played a far greater part in returns from stocks rather then capital growth as shown on this graph


Yea I agree on jobs though I always hear its a retrospective indicator and markets are estimating next aprils outlook and beyond.
Its quite likely government income will not meet outgoings, as the public 'business' grows it becomes more inefficient and so does the country as a whole



A rough mirror of the above?

StevieJ

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

As an asset class specific in america or the uk, average stock growth might be below 1.68% in future or whatever, it'll be relatively slow but still positive maybe

I don't think the UK market, in particular Ftse 100 is dependent on the UK economy,
with many of the companies global enterprises e.g. Rio Tinto,Shell and HSBC.

sabretoothtigger

Yea true, I'd say it is in the majority uk based (& europe/usa) but I dont know how much is foreign. That should be increasingly important
It should be possible to work out roughly, digital look gives geo basis for each company

This is one of the big differences between 1930 and now (greater foreign interests). However it hasnt helped japan rebound (stocks wise) and they have lots of foreign operating companies, they are not necessarily related to us though


Article on divis
http://www.digitallook.com/news/2791694/Strategy_High_Yield_recovers_its_poise.html?username=sabrehbos&ac=211471


I'll (roughly) work it out for the three you mention but not sure if I can be bothered to do the other 97

RIO



HSBC



Shell

FTSE_size_% wrote:

Top 10 holdings

BP 7.74% Vodafone Group 5.63% GlaxoSmithKline 4.97% Royal Dutch Shell A 4.82% HSBC Holdings PLC (UK Reg) 4.20% Royal Dutch Shell B 3.66% Astrazeneca 3.12% BG Group 3.10% British American Tobacco 2.81% BHP Billiton 2.67%
[Rio 2.31%]

Excluding Uk, europe, America & Japan in a bout of blanket western pessimism we come up with international business percentages of:
Rio - 37.38
HSBC - 39.09
Shell - 35.03


As a percentage of the ftse 100 these 3 would represent foreign interests of 5.5%

A company like standard chartered would be more like 100% foreign and its similar to rio in size and influence in the index at this moment.
Much better to dump the tracker and go overweight on companies like that

StevieJ

Article by Anthony Bolton.

More significantly, the very nature of these businesses has been transformed over the past few decades. Our analysis shows that in 2005 the UK accounted for just 36.5% of the sales revenues generated by the companies in the FTSE All Share index, excluding financial companies.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/markets/article.html?in_article_id=410399&in_page_id=3

sabretoothtigger

A company he mentions there Kazakhmys as being mostly about china shows large amounts of revenue occuring in the uk

10% revenue is in asia but 75% profits come from this region
Its an exporting company with costs and revenue here I guess that means, unfortunately this means these geographical charts do not reflect potential success of companies like this then

StevieJ

US consumer confidence figures have boosted the markets today.

U.S. consumer confidence soared in May to its highest level in eight months, the industry group Conference Board said, suggesting underlying improvement in the economy after a grim first quarter that witnessed a record plunge in home prices. [ID:nN26489555]

mewbie_2

Could have been even better if we weren't facing a nuclear war.