50% drops by 2011

Dithering_Dad

!!!!!!? wrote: »

We've seen an horrific plunge last week, but was that the absolute bottom? With the waves of recession about to hit hard, I really don't think that it was.

From historical charts it can be seen that during every recession since 1900, the stock market actually rose. Amazingly even during the Great Depression.

All I can imagine is that the crash occurs at the realisation/start of a recession and then it recovers (goes up) as the recession progresses.

andys15

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Absolutely - and let's define the 'HPC crowd' that some here like to complain about.

Holding the opinion that house prices were stupidly high and were going to fall was eminently sensible, and proven correct.

Reasoning the that the stupid amount of lending facilitating these prices was going to result in real problems for the economy was also a reasonable conclusion, and also proven correct.


Being sensible with money and intelligent enough to read the signs (not difficult really, they have been there in mile-high flashing red neon lettering for the last couple of years for anyone with enough self-confidence to tear themselves away from the herd and read them) about the housing market and economy doesn't somehow turn someone into some sort of obsessed nutter.

Anyone listening to 'the HPC crowd' here in the last 18 months would be in a much better position now than someone following the conventional 'wisdom' of the general media and public opinion. To think that there were people asking about buying a house here up until quite recently being egged on by 'the non HPC crowd' into possibly the worst financial decision of their lives .

I have no problem with you thinking buying a house today is absolutley crazy, I dont and wont agree. I think buying a brand new top of the range car is crazy, but people do it, and i wouldn't discourage them, after all it is there choice.
I have never seen anyone egg someone on to buying a house, but your statements and I have seen a few sprouted from you "worst financial decision" could make people doubt buying.
When I bought, it was about 3 months after the CML said house prices were 30% overvalued, everyman and his dog were saying house prices were going to crash by 50% and we were all doomed. I knew I was stepping into negative equity as soon as I got my deeds. Why would I knowingly make "the worst financial decision of my life" so easily. Bottom line I couldn't give a monkies. My posts are apparently trying to talk up the market, I am more intrigued by the human nature aspects of it, how the media can make something look good or bad. How fickle everyone seems to be. People will now interpret this as me panicking, because I am in negative equity and need the prices to soar. I dont want house prices to soar. I want to move up the ladder. When knowingly entering negative equity, we discussed what this would mean before we bought. Fristly We might have to stay put for longer than expected(3 bed detached, we could convert the garage make it bigger downstairs, so if we cant get out, we have a plan for that aspect.) We will be on the SVR in 3 years time, ok I pay my dad £1000 for a loan.(in JAN that will be £2000 and paid of by MAR 10), so if the interest rates on the SVR are massive that £1000 can then go to pay that. In 3 years time when I am on the SVR I will have had 3 or 6 pay rises(3 definate, 3 will be negotiated). The mortgage is less than 3 times our salary. We are on repayment and will have paid £10000 of the capital in 3 years, once my dad is paid then we will make overpayments and this will be adjusted according to what SVR we are on. This was our thought processes, we didn't want to be watching house prices for the next how ever many years. We can now get on with our lives. House prices do you worst. Worst financial decision ever, not for me it wasn't, for some yes, and this is what is more important. Why shouldn't someone who can afford a home, and not looking at investing, buy a house.

Cannon_Fodder

DD - tut, tut.

one minute, its "Thanks Carol, a much more enjoyable debate when it's friendly"

next its "I used less self-agrandising rhetoric"...to have a dig at your favourite target.


No only pointless, you criticise others for doing exactly that.


Sometimes I wonder if you and !!!!!!? are divorcees who, knowing its their other half on the forum, maintain the peace for the sake of the kids, but every so often you cannot avoid taking that potshot...

It grows tiresome, to be honest.

chucky

andys15 wrote: »

I have no problem with you thinking buying a house today is absolutley crazy, I dont and wont agree. I think buying a brand new top of the range car is crazy, but people do it, and i wouldn't discourage them, after all it is there choice.
I have never seen anyone egg someone on to buying a house, but your statements and I have seen a few sprouted from you "worst financial decision" could make people doubt buying.
When I bought, it was about 3 months after the CML said house prices were 30% overvalued, everyman and his dog were saying house prices were going to crash by 50% and we were all doomed. I knew I was stepping into negative equity as soon as I got my deeds. Why would I knowingly make "the worst financial decision of my life" so easily. Bottom line I couldn't give a monkies. My posts are apparently trying to talk up the market, I am more intrigued by the human nature aspects of it, how the media can make something look good or bad. How fickle everyone seems to be. People will now interpret this as me panicking, because I am in negative equity and need the prices to soar. I dont want house prices to soar. I want to move up the ladder. When knowingly entering negative equity, we discussed what this would mean before we bought. Fristly We might have to stay put for longer than expected(3 bed detached, we could convert the garage make it bigger downstairs, so if we cant get out, we have a plan for that aspect.) We will be on the SVR in 3 years time, ok I pay my dad £1000 for a loan.(in JAN that will be £2000 and paid of by MAR 10), so if the interest rates on the SVR are massive that £1000 can then go to pay that. In 3 years time when I am on the SVR I will have had 3 or 6 pay rises(3 definate, 3 will be negotiated). The mortgage is less than 3 times our salary. We are on repayment and will have paid £10000 of the capital in 3 years, once my dad is paid then we will make overpayments and this will be adjusted according to what SVR we are on. This was our thought processes, we didn't want to be watching house prices for the next how ever many years. We can now get on with our lives. House prices do you worst. Worst financial decision ever, not for me it wasn't, for some yes, and this is what is more important. Why shouldn't someone who can afford a home, and not looking at investing, buy a house.

a very good post and adds some perspective for the HPC Doom Crew to analyse

Dithering_Dad

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

DD - tut, tut.

one minute, its "Thanks Carol, a much more enjoyable debate when it's friendly"

next its "I used less self-agrandising rhetoric"...to have a dig at your favourite target.


No only pointless, you criticise others for doing exactly that.


Sometimes I wonder if you and !!!!!!? are divorcees who, knowing its their other half on the forum, maintain the peace for the sake of the kids, but every so often you cannot avoid taking that potshot...

It grows tiresome, to be honest.

Noted, though I did pop a wink in there to show I was only having a tickle. I could have said so much more about that post and yet didn't. You could have chosen to ignore my little tickle, but you didn't.

Sometimes I wonder if certain people on the HPC thread PM each other whenever they feel agrieved with another poster in order to get support. It grows tiresome, to be honest.

Cannon_Fodder

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

From historical charts it can be seen that during every recession since 1900, the stock market actually rose. Amazingly even during the Great Depression.

All I can imagine is that the crash occurs at the realisation/start of a recession and then it recovers (goes up) as the recession progresses.

Depends on your definition of "during" - yes there was a bounce in 1930. But I thought the Depression was until 1933/4 - doesn't look too upwards...and it didn't get back to 1929 level until around 1950s...

Now, are we at the 1930 rally, one of the 1931 rallies, or 1953 already?

(not a great graph, googled...)






Maybe this one as well will help put in context.

carolt

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

From historical charts it can be seen that during every recession since 1900, the stock market actually rose. Amazingly even during the Great Depression.

All I can imagine is that the crash occurs at the realisation/start of a recession and then it recovers (goes up) as the recession progresses.

Absolutely not true.

I have been reading the history of the Great Depression, and having fallen 40% in a couple of months (not that far off this year's figures, though quicker), the stockmarket continued to fall through the Great Depression, reaching a nadir of 89% below peak in July 1932.

It then took 25 years to regain its 1929 peak.

So not necessarily a great time to buy.:rolleyes:

hethmar

People keep quoting the drop in August figures on house prices - but isnt that a normally very quiet month as people are on holiday? Plus everyone was waiting to hear about the decision on Stamp Duty?

Cannon_Fodder

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

You could have chosen to ignore my little tickle, but you didn't.

just like you could have ignored carolt...?

joker is hardly the worst we've seen on-forum.

methinks he doth protest too much.

:rolleyes:

WTF?_2

andys15 wrote: »

I have no problem with you thinking buying a house today is absolutley crazy, I dont and wont agree. I think buying a brand new top of the range car is crazy, but people do it, and i wouldn't discourage them, after all it is there choice.
I have never seen anyone egg someone on to buying a house, but your statements and I have seen a few sprouted from you "worst financial decision" could make people doubt buying.
When I bought, it was about 3 months after the CML said house prices were 30% overvalued, everyman and his dog were saying house prices were going to crash by 50% and we were all doomed. I knew I was stepping into negative equity as soon as I got my deeds. Why would I knowingly make "the worst financial decision of my life" so easily. Bottom line I couldn't give a monkies. My posts are apparently trying to talk up the market, I am more intrigued by the human nature aspects of it, how the media can make something look good or bad. How fickle everyone seems to be. People will now interpret this as me panicking, because I am in negative equity and need the prices to soar. I dont want house prices to soar. I want to move up the ladder. When knowingly entering negative equity, we discussed what this would mean before we bought. Fristly We might have to stay put for longer than expected(3 bed detached, we could convert the garage make it bigger downstairs, so if we cant get out, we have a plan for that aspect.) We will be on the SVR in 3 years time, ok I pay my dad £1000 for a loan.(in JAN that will be £2000 and paid of by MAR 10), so if the interest rates on the SVR are massive that £1000 can then go to pay that. In 3 years time when I am on the SVR I will have had 3 or 6 pay rises(3 definate, 3 will be negotiated). The mortgage is less than 3 times our salary. We are on repayment and will have paid £10000 of the capital in 3 years, once my dad is paid then we will make overpayments and this will be adjusted according to what SVR we are on. This was our thought processes, we didn't want to be watching house prices for the next how ever many years. We can now get on with our lives. House prices do you worst. Worst financial decision ever, not for me it wasn't, for some yes, and this is what is more important. Why shouldn't someone who can afford a home, and not looking at investing, buy a house.

Sorry, but recalling that thread (it seems to have been removed by a mod but you can still read some of it cached in google, here http://64.233.183.104/search?q=cache:p95p48wPNd0J:forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html%3Fp%3D14644365+andys15+!!!!!!%3F&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=uk&client=firefox-a) you'd just made a questionable decision to buy a house and were looking to try to justify it.

IIRC you were already in debt and borrowed a considerable sum off of family to clear that debt and put down the deposit in order to buy very near the peak. You were also buying the same house you were renting, going from paying £800 pm to £1200pm. Bonkers.

Now maybe you can make it work in the long term - good luck - but IMO based on the facts you posted at the time it was an incredibly reckless financial decision and just because you are determined to deny it to the death doesn't make it otherwise.

Maybe you walked into it with your eyes open and ready to take the risk but plenty just assumed that buying a house was the thing to do. The media was telling them this, their peers were telling them this and plenty of people on MSE were cheerleading the whole thing whilst decrying those cautioning against it. This process of trying to label and demonise the 'HPC crowd' is something that still goes on. Too bad that the 'doom mongers' turned out to be the 'realism mongers'.