50% drops by 2011

stevetodd

ruggedtoast wrote: »

After peaking in the late 80s, property prices didnt start to recover until the mid 90s. If youre going to draw erroneous parallels with previous market conditions you may as well get your fact straight.

And just for your information house prices started falling almost 12 months ago, whereas the stock market didnt take a tumble until comparatively recently.

.

The FTSE 100 has been falling for the last 12 months too (although I wish it had not):

Dithering_Dad

carolt wrote: »

I think you genuinely believe that.

But given that other current thread shows 40% drops, why is 50% so ludicrous?

Not saying it will definitely happen - but it seems quite plausible. Lots of people claimed house prices wouldn't fall at all - and now we're seeing the biggest annualised falls on record.

Never say never.

All we need is another 2 or 3 years like we've had, which as recession and unemployment kicks in, seems quite feasible - and there are your falls.

Thanks Carol, a much more enjoyable debate when it's friendly

The problem I have with the 30%/40% and 50% threads is that they all use the same skewed figures. They quote new builds that have been discounted down from a ludicrous asking price or they mention reposessions. Neither of which represent more than a tiny fraction of the housing market.

The actual figures in October were a 'record' annual fall of 13.2%. That was a record fall so even if the record was equalled again next year (which I doubt), the average would be 26.4% not 40%.

chucky

neverdespairgirl wrote: »

I just don't want to be worrying about money. Being careful with what we spend, etc, means that money isn't something I need to lose sleep over, and that's a priority for me.

sorry to bring this up and really not trying to be provocative but a few weeks ago you were arguing with me that I knew of a couple of friends that had purchased for peice of mind also for family stability so that they could have a property for X amount of years.

you were arguing that they should wait and get a property maybe at a cheaper price - isn't the peice of mind argument and the stability for the family the same thing?

chucky

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

Thanks Carol, a much more enjoyable debate when it's friendly

The problem I have with the 30%/40% and 50% threads is that they all use the same skewed figures. They quote new builds that have been discounted down from a ludicrous asking price or they mention reposessions. Neither of which represent more than a tiny fraction of the housing market.

The actual figures in October were a 'record' annual fall of 13.2%. That was a record fall so even if the record was equalled again next year (which I doubt), the average would be 26.4% not 40%.

there's another thread going on at the moment from a Sky report that quotes property dropping 40%.

the types of properties they did there research on are a basement, a property in Herne Hill that needs development. Hwerne hill of all places!?

they're not 100% accurate or even 60% accurate in these reports - they're comparing properties in a poor state of repair or with excessive initial asking prices.

Dithering_Dad

neverdespairgirl wrote: »

I don't know if I qualify as one of the HPC crowd?

Assuming I do, I am pretty risk-adverse. I don't think, however, that it's a lack of confidence.

I just don't want to be worrying about money. Being careful with what we spend, etc, means that money isn't something I need to lose sleep over, and that's a priority for me.

I'd class anyone who wants house prices to fall to be part of the HPC crowd, so I guess even I'm a member. However there is a subdivision of this group where some people want to see houses fall to reasonable and sustainable levels and some want houses to crash completely and become worthless (well until they buy one that is ). I think both you and I are in the former HPC subdivision.

I'd say that if a couple who both have careers in a profession, are very highly paid and have very secure employment would have sleepless nights if they are not careful with what they spend, then they're probably very risk adverse.

andys15

chucky wrote: »

there's another thread going on at the moment from a Sky report that quotes property dropping 40%.

the types of properties they did there research on are a basement, a property in Herne Hill that needs development. Hwerne hill of all places!?

they're not 100% accurate or even 60% accurate in these reports - they're comparing properties in a poor state of repair or with excessive initial asking prices.

Its brainwashing. Sensationalism. Lazy reporting. But hey its effective.

WTF?_2

neverdespairgirl wrote: »

I don't know if I qualify as one of the HPC crowd?

Assuming I do, I am pretty risk-adverse. I don't think, however, that it's a lack of confidence.

I just don't want to be worrying about money. Being careful with what we spend, etc, means that money isn't something I need to lose sleep over, and that's a priority for me.

Absolutely - and let's define the 'HPC crowd' that some here like to complain about.

Holding the opinion that house prices were stupidly high and were going to fall was eminently sensible, and proven correct.

Reasoning the that the stupid amount of lending facilitating these prices was going to result in real problems for the economy was also a reasonable conclusion, and also proven correct.


Being sensible with money and intelligent enough to read the signs (not difficult really, they have been there in mile-high flashing red neon lettering for the last couple of years for anyone with enough self-confidence to tear themselves away from the herd and read them) about the housing market and economy doesn't somehow turn someone into some sort of obsessed nutter.

Anyone listening to 'the HPC crowd' here in the last 18 months would be in a much better position now than someone following the conventional 'wisdom' of the general media and public opinion. To think that there were people asking about buying a house here up until quite recently being egged on by 'the non HPC crowd' into possibly the worst financial decision of their lives .

Cannon_Fodder

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

House price drops are already slowing down

Depends on whose stats you are reading...

http://www1.landregistry.gov.uk/houseprices/housepriceindex/report/default.asp?step=4&locationType=0&area=E%26W-ALL&reporttype=1&datetype=1&from1=04%2F2000&from2=08%2F2008&image2.x=24&image2.y=10

The RATE of CHANGE more than DOUBLED between July and August, from -0.9 to -1.9...awaiting September's figures with anticipation.


- albeit after halving in the other direction the previous month, we all know how 1 swallow doesn't make a summer - in either direction...!


Yes, the figures could be skewed by a number of forced/overpriced properties in relatively low turnover months - but the problem is that valuers will use most recent stats and mortgage companies will restrict their loan offers based on those valuations.

Especially after the banking debacle, which is possibly still unfinished.

Plus unemployment starting to increase, still to fully gather pace, on top.

Dithering_Dad

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Absolutely - and let's define the 'HPC crowd' that some here like to complain about.

Holding the opinion that house prices were stupidly high and were going to fall was eminently sensible, and proven correct.

Reasoning the that the stupid amount of lending facilitating these prices was going to result in real problems for the economy was also a reasonable conclusion, and also proven correct.


Being sensible with money and intelligent enough to read the signs (not difficult really, they have been there in mile-high flashing red neon lettering for the last couple of years for anyone with enough self-confidence to tear themselves away from the herd and read them) about the housing market and economy doesn't somehow turn someone into some sort of obsessed nutter.

Anyone listening to 'the HPC crowd' here in the last 18 months would be in a much better position now than someone following the conventional 'wisdom' of the general media and public opinion. To think that there were people asking about buying a house here up until quite recently being egged on by 'the non HPC crowd' into possibly the worst financial decision of their lives .

Bit late !!!!!!, I had already defined the HPC crowd, though I have to say that I used less self-agrandising rhetoric in order to do it.

Still each to their own.

WTF?_2

stevetodd wrote: »

The FTSE 100 has been falling for the last 12 months too (although I wish it had not):

Definitely a classic bear market. Dropping over the long term with a series of recoveries which never quite get back to the previous peak.

The question will be when will the market turn? We've seen an horrific plunge last week, but was that the absolute bottom? With the waves of recession about to hit hard, I really don't think that it was. Maybe it sets a floor along which we will scrape.