50% drops by 2011

WTF?_2

StevieJ wrote: »

I think some of the guys on this forum think that prices will drop that much that they will be able to skip the mortgage bit and 'first rung' totally.

Bingo. I could already get a so-so FTB place with my existing 'cash in the bank' but I'd like a 'second rung' 3-bed semi with garage and garden in a decent area, mortgage free.

Given projected falls and rate of savings - looks perfectly possible for H2 2010. Already looking into redirection some NR eSaver savings into a tax-free RPI+%age NS&I bond for it now.

Obviously losing my job in the recession could kiboosh that but nothing I can do about that possibility.

chucky

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Actually - you were originally arguing that there weren't even going to be 40k losses in the city - but of course after I highlighted it you went back and deleted your posts about that. :rolleyes2

Whether we get the 110k predicted by the Hay Group
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/2972502/Thousands-of--financial-jobs-will-go,-economists-say.html
remains to be seen. I wouldn't bet against it though. However, now that half of Britains banking system is in government hands who knows how many jobs will be 'saved'.

Regarding price drops, my own predictions are for about 35% (national average) at the trough but some parts will see 50% or close to it, I reckon. Probably areas of Wales and Northern Ireland.

me deleting posts has nothing to do with you and it is for personal reasons as i have explained to you on a number of occasions. you like your posts, it makes you feel important and you will go down in Google's cache - not for me sorry. if you want to continue discussing this; please PM me because this isn't really on-topic. is it? if you continue you're obviously interested in arguing with me over this than staying on-topic.

110,000 job losses in the City will never happen, as i said previously on a number of occasions neither will 40,000. i have no argument that retail banking will have job losses or have any idea how many will or will not happen - they are NOT the City.

hopefully one day we will see a positive post from you, instead of all of the doom and gloom that you continually post.

andys15

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Bingo. I could already get a so-so FTB place with my existing 'cash in the bank' but I'd like a 'second rung' 3-bed semi with garage and garden in a decent area, mortgage free.

Given projected falls and rate of savings - looks perfectly possible for H2 2010. Already looking into redirection some NR eSaver savings into a tax-free RPI+%age NS&I bond for it now.

Obviously losing my job in the recession could kiboosh that but nothing I can do about that possibility.

Just curious !!!!!!./ do you have wife kids. how did you get the money str, saved like mad, inherritance.

Dithering_Dad

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Bingo. I could already get a so-so FTB place with my existing 'cash in the bank' but I'd like a 'second rung' 3-bed semi with garage and garden in a decent area, mortgage free.

I'm not sure about the validity of your argument here. You have said previously that you graduated in 1993 and I think you did a postgrad and so probably started work in 1994?

So you've been working 14 years in IT (a well paid profession, especially for those with over 3 years experience and higher degrees) and are now in a position to buy a 'so-so FTB place for cash'.

Is it not the case that you're no better or worse off than someone who graduated at the same time as you but bought a house 10 years ago when he or she started working?

In fact it could be argued that had you bought in 1995 when you would have finished any 'probabtion period' at work you'd be much further up the ladder than you currently are. Plus you would have enjoyed the obvious benefits of living in your own home for 10 years.

Sorry, I'm not having a dig, I'm just confused about the point you're trying to make.

StevieJ

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Bingo. I could already get a so-so FTB place with my existing 'cash in the bank' but I'd like a 'second rung' 3-bed semi with garage and garden in a decent area, mortgage free.

Given projected falls and rate of savings - looks perfectly possible for H2 2010. Already looking into redirection some NR eSaver savings into a tax-free RPI+%age NS&I bond for it now.

Obviously losing my job in the recession could kiboosh that but nothing I can do about that possibility.

That NS&I bond is likely to be only paying around 1% sometime soon and you will need to keep it for at least a year, I have had mine for a couple of years but then again inflation was quite high back then.

Maisie11

Agree with DD. We have been in our house 9.5 years and it has doubled in price (tax free!). Of course we will be downsizing, however we then have £250k (tax free again!) to pay for our children's school fees. Also we have had a wonderful family house and had two children and two dogs without having to ask anyone's permission.

WTF?_2

andys15 wrote: »

Just curious !!!!!!./ do you have wife kids. how did you get the money str, saved like mad, inherritance.

Got the money from landing a damn good contract abroad and living within my means.

A side benefit was that upon return to the UK the financial commonsense part of my brain was still intact and hadn't been rotted away by years of media hype, credit culture and property !!!!!! TV.

I fully admit that had I been in the UK all that time as prices just went up up up I would most likely have went along with the herd and thought that the prices of recent years were somehow sustainable or reasonable.

WTF?_2

StevieJ wrote: »

That NS&I bond is likely to be only paying around 1% sometime soon and you will need to keep it for at least a year, I have had mine for a couple of years but then again inflation was quite high back then.

It's likely to beat paying 40% tax on whatever NR eSaver is going to be offering in the future. They cut it to 5.75% recently and I wouldn't be surprised to see the recent BoE 0.5% cut fully 'passed on' to savers even if mortgage debtors don't see the benefit.

I won't need the money for about two years so I judge it makes sense.

Right now we have headline CPI inflation at 5.2% and rates of decent savings accounts at maybe half a percent below that. Madness.

Dithering_Dad

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Got the money from landing a damn good contract abroad and living within my means.

A side benefit was that upon return to the UK the financial commonsense part of my brain was still intact and hadn't been rotted away by years of media hype, credit culture and property !!!!!! TV.

I fully admit that had I been in the UK all that time as prices just went up up up I would most likely have went along with the herd and thought that the prices of recent years were somehow sustainable or reasonable.

I have to say that this sounds very bitter and I'm at a loss to understand it. Do you really think that everyone who stayed in the UK and who own a home has a rotten financial brain, are herd animals and believe that house price inflation is a good thing?

What about the wife/kids part of the question?

Maisie11

I fear this current financial climate has turned a number of people into financial experts. Who knows the future? If people really know what is going to happen they would not be on this website answering posts - they would have brought when the market bottomed out last time and of course sold at the height of the market but anyone who has this sort of knowledge would be on their yacht in the Med not telling everyone one day they will buy, one day, one day.......