Crash Crash Crash !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

novazombie

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

They wont fall below 2002 prices imo because of the high underlying demand and readjustment that will happen by then.

Time itself is a means for correction in price so long as deflation is kept as theory. The price will bottom out and stagnate but actually its still getting cheaper because of inflation

Selling at cost price would require a doomsday situation

This is going to be the worst crash the world has ever seen. There is no reason why they wont go below 02 prices, and even then keep falling.

Cat695

novazombie wrote: »

This is going to be the worst crash the world has ever seen. There is no reason why they wont go below 02 prices, and even then keep falling.

I just look at America....we're what a year or so behind America...and their enconemy is far bigger than ours

They've just started their second year in a recession their house prices are so low I could buy a street.....Though I like to think we will never get that bad.

crazygaijin

Cat695 wrote: »

I just look at America....we're what a year or so behind America...and their enconemy is far bigger than ours

They've just started their second year in a recession their house prices are so low I could buy a street.....Though I like to think we will never get that bad.

Thats right and U.S. is still falling like lead. We will be the same.

Many on here somehow think prices will not fall that much because we all need houses, but the point is people can only buy what they can get cash to pay for it.

Banks arent even lending to each other any more. How is the average person going to get a mortgage these days?

The only way people are going to be able to sell their house is if they drop the price so low that buyers can actually come up with the cash somehow.

jasper12

Cat695 wrote: »

I just look at America....we're what a year or so behind America...and their enconemy is far bigger than ours

They've just started their second year in a recession their house prices are so low I could buy a street.....Though I like to think we will never get that bad.

But the american housing market is a different beast...there was massive oversupply in some areas of the states, many more houses were being built than were required, resulting in the catastrophic falls witnessed. That is not the case in the UK, where there is still a shortfall in supply of housing compared to demand, hence the fall shouldn't be anywhere as bad.

ruggedtoast

jasper12 wrote: »

But the american housing market is a different beast...there was massive oversupply in some areas of the states, many more houses were being built than were required, resulting in the catastrophic falls witnessed. That is not the case in the UK, where there is still a shortfall in supply of housing compared to demand, hence the fall shouldn't be anywhere as bad.

Can you provide some evidence for that statement please?

There has always been a strong demand for affordable housing in the UK. However affordable no longer comes in at £250,000 on a £20k p.a salary, and isnt likely to again. Ever.

Although there was an oversupply in the US market the fundamental weaknesses are actually quite similar to ours. Their markets suffered an oversupply, of properties people dont want, in unpopular areas. In fact I suspect someone trying to offload a house in the Salton Sea at the moment would have a lot in common to commiserate with, to a new build city centre btl owner in Leeds or London.

One of the biggest absurdities of the peak of the bubble, was when prices in dives like Clapton and Hackney started to equal real estate prices in Greenwich and Harrow. Valutations had become go dislocated from reality that the stage had been reached where a 3 bed flat was automatically "worth" a third of a million quid in the eyes of a bank, regardless of where it was. In fact deprived areas were already having future increases priced in to take advantage of their inevitable gentrification.

For some areas there is a long long way to the bottom yet.

RDB

jasper12 wrote: »

But the american housing market is a different beast...there was massive oversupply in some areas of the states, many more houses were being built than were required, resulting in the catastrophic falls witnessed. That is not the case in the UK, where there is still a shortfall in supply of housing compared to demand, hence the fall shouldn't be anywhere as bad.

I dont agree there is a shortfall in supply in the UK look at the figures now. There are 10s of thousands of EMPTY properties that just cant be sold at the moment. Also there were still thousands before all these quantities of new builds shot up all over the country.

If there is a shortfall in supply of housing compared to demand as you claim then why are so many repossed properties not even reaching the reserve price at auction. I say the answer is because people are going to be renting for a while especially as rents are droping alomost as fast as HPs and most will only consider buying when prices come down to about 3 time earnings.

Also there are more people leaving the UK than moving in. Its a sad fact that all the Eastern Europeans who came over here for the earnings potential are leaving in droves. They can earn more in Euros cleaning toilets back home than a skilled job in pounds.

ruggedtoast

Check out this miserable Hackney hovel :-D


http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-19047683.html?pageNumber=2&backToListURL=%2Fproperty-for-sale%2Ffind.html%3FlocationIdentifier%3DREGION%255E87508%26sortByPriceDescending%3Dfalse%26minBedrooms%3D2%26index%3D10&locationIdentifier=REGION^87508&radius=0.0&minBeds=2


For those without Property Bee, this place, well situated for a viscious Friday night walk home beating in Dalston, or death in a drive by in Clapton - went on at in March 2008 at £220,000.

Generali

ruggedtoast wrote: »

Check out this miserable Hackney hovel :-D


http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-19047683.html?pageNumber=2&backToListURL=%2Fproperty-for-sale%2Ffind.html%3FlocationIdentifier%3DREGION%255E87508%26sortByPriceDescending%3Dfalse%26minBedrooms%3D2%26index%3D10&locationIdentifier=REGION^87508&radius=0.0&minBeds=2


For those without Property Bee, this place, well situated for a viscious Friday night walk home beating in Dalston, or death in a drive by in Clapton - went on at in March 2008 at £220,000.

Quarter of a million quid to live above a takeaway in a war zone. I used to cycle round there a bit and it's a hell hole almost as bad as Bradford.

ruggedtoast

Generali wrote: »

Quarter of a million quid to live above a takeaway in a war zone. I used to cycle round there a bit and it's a hell hole almost as bad as Bradford.

I guess if the fighting became too bad to go out one could always lower down a basket to the takeaway and have them fill it with a doner. Very convenient, must be what the premium is for.

chucky

ruggedtoast wrote: »

Can you provide some evidence for that statement please?

There has always been a strong demand for affordable housing in the UK. However affordable no longer comes in at £250,000 on a £20k p.a salary, and isnt likely to again. Ever.

Although there was an oversupply in the US market the fundamental weaknesses are actually quite similar to ours. Their markets suffered an oversupply, of properties people dont want, in unpopular areas. In fact I suspect someone trying to offload a house in the Salton Sea at the moment would have a lot in common to commiserate with, to a new build city centre btl owner in Leeds or London.

One of the biggest absurdities of the peak of the bubble, was when prices in dives like Clapton and Hackney started to equal real estate prices in Greenwich and Harrow. Valutations had become go dislocated from reality that the stage had been reached where a 3 bed flat was automatically "worth" a third of a million quid in the eyes of a bank, regardless of where it was. In fact deprived areas were already having future increases priced in to take advantage of their inevitable gentrification.

For some areas there is a long long way to the bottom yet.

very well said