Wholesale gas prices have almost halved since June!!!!!!!

mech_2

iamesbo wrote: »

Notice th difference between the US (Henry Hub) and the UK gas prices lines, the US prices are like a real market, a spike apparently random line, whereas the UK price graph is most unusual, it has step changes in it, it is not a real market which is controlled by supply and demand it is one where the price is set by the suppliers.

Yes, I did state that the UK day ahead data is incomplete (the red line). Some of the data points are days, weeks, even months apart the further you go back. I do have daily data for the past couple of months though and you will notice it gets just as spikey as the blue line. If you want to help me you can find me some historical day-ahead NBP prices in tabular form.

Prompt prices will be volatile as they are affected by things like the weather. Within-day would be spikier still as it would presumably be affected by any major fluctuations in actual usage. Colder weather than expected makes heating systems in buildings use more gas than the utility company has hedged in advance, so they all need to buy more gas in a short space of time and this drives the price up. If there's warmer weather than expected and no one wants the gas, the price comes down. A real marketplace.

The green line is for contracts up to a month away. It's not possible to tell whether there will be a sudden cold snap on the 19th of November for example, so it doesn't affect the prices in October. When the cold snap actually happens, the green line is already showing December. November is then prompt. On the 18th of November anything wrong with prior assumptions about the weather would be reflected in the red line.

That's the gist of it anyway.

iamesbo

Cardew wrote: »

The mods in their infinite wisdom would appear to have deleted the thread he started, so no doubt this one will now become the vehicle to express similar views.

Well it seems it is to late to try and censor my views as apparently the Daily Express has got hold of them, the cat is out of the bag and my accurate analysis has forced the government to force the gas companies to cut their price.

So it seems the apparent attempt here, by some, to justify the high gas prices has failed miserably, I expect the gas companies wil now have to sack their shrills they apparently employ to rubbish my accurate analysis of the market in order to try and justify the overpriceing of gas, good to see they will be cutting costs :rotfl:

So here is my message to all those shrills :-


:xmassign::santa2::snow_grin:xmastree:

Gas prices are coming down :T:xmassmile:snow_laug:xmassign: :rudolf:

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/67254/%A3100-off-gas-by-Christmas/

Of course a 10% fall is nowhere near enough, but it a first step, the falls in energy prices
jusify a 40%-50% drop. I expect that to be anounced soon, they are still trying to hang
on to high prices but I have other ideas.

iamesbo

Ed Mayo, chief executive of Consumer Focus, added: “We have called on the European Commission to investigate whether this link is a form of market abuse contrary to European law.” :beer::T:T:A

1carminestocky

Seems like Mech and Cardew are vying for King Canute status here. The cat certainly is well and truly out of the bag. Ed Milliband has just been on both breakfast tv progs stating he is quite prepared to legislate if need be to FORCE the discredited energy companies to lower prices. How embarrassing for them, their nice little earner appears to be coming to an end. Maybe they will have to tighten their belts a bit and become more efficient (BG, for instance, spent a reported HALF A BILLION POUNDS on a computer system so unfit for purpose that they are reportedly suing the people who supplied it, lol). Arrogant companies with, in certain instances, arrogant employees.

backfoot

I haven't yet had time to digest Mech's graphs or the 24p adjustment.

Generally,the tide does seem to be turning. The Dispatches programme was illuminating. Eminent analysts gave commentary that the market was stiched up and the Companies were profiteering.This was from a leading University Professor at Sheffield. In addition, now released from his shackles,Alan Asher the ex Head of Energywatch was absolutely scathing about the market abuse and has followed it up saying there is scope for around £300 reduction on average bills.

You have to admire the fortitude that the energy employees show in sticking to their party line. :rotfl: A once respected Industry employing many thousands of conscientious employees has now become as popular as Estate Agents and Bankers.:eek: I don't blame those employees, but do blame the greedy Executives,Govt and Regulators who have led them into total disrepute.

Oh and that DR. Felgate from the ERA. I have never seen a less convincing, squirming spokesman appear on behalf of such a major organisation. Still what does he care, a £100k + package bides you over the tough times.:rolleyes:

1carminestocky

backfoot wrote: »

I haven't yet had time to digest Mech's graphs or the 24p adjustment.

Generally,the tide does seem to be turning. The Dispatches programme was illuminating. Eminent analysts gave commentary that the market was stiched up and the Companies were profiteering.This was from a leading University Professor at Sheffield. In addition, now released from his shackles,Alan Asher the ex Head of Energywatch was absolutely scathing about the market abuse and has followed it up saying there is scope for around £300 reduction on average bills.

You have to admire the fortitude that the energy employees show in sticking to their party line. :rotfl: A once respected Industry employing many thousands of conscientious employees has now become as popular as Estate Agents and Bankers.:eek: I don't blame those employees, but do blame the greedy Executives,Govt and Regulators who have led them into total disrepute.

Oh and that DR. Felgate from the ERA. I have never seen a less convincing, squirming spokesman appear on behalf of such a major organisation. Still what does he care, a £100k + package bides you over the tough times.:rolleyes:

He reserved his biggest case of squirming/gurning for when he was asked about the correlation between the price of oil and the price of gas. :rotfl: Let's not forget this particular embarrassment was caused entirely by the energy companies desperately latching themselves onto the 'price of gas is linked to price of oil' theory when oil was 'conveniently' at $147 per barrel. I'm suspecting they didn't expect oil to plummet over 50% in less than 4 months, though. They walked right into that one. :rotfl:

iamesbo

Ha ha where are the gas company shrils now?
All been sacked :D:D:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

BallandChain

I posted on a thread of Iamesbo's last night and it's disappeared. Why was that thread pulled? I didn't see anything warranting it's closure. I was looking forward to reading Iamesbo's evidence concerning the electric/gas companies profiteering.

1carminestocky

BallandChain wrote: »

I posted on a thread of Iamesbo's last night and it's disappeared. Why was that thread pulled? I didn't see anything warranting it's closure. I was looking forward to reading Iamesbo's evidence concerning the electric/gas companies profiteering.

The mods would appear to have deleted it which tends to suggest someone reported it There's plenty of evidence provided of company profiteering on the dispatches proramme the other night. The tale of Sheffield University Professor Richard Wright (described on the show as one of the most knowleale authorities on the gas industry in the world) and his deciphering of the wholesale prices info Bg used to produce (but not any more, Oh no, lol) is very interesting.

The main point is that, for all the rollox about BG only make £6-£30 per customer, what they (and, sadly, the couple of shrills on here) don't tell you is these businesses are heavily involved in EVERY aspect of domestic fuel, including the production of it and they make money hand over fist at this so the 'profit per customer' claims of the supply business are essentially a red herring to put you off the scent (and persistently pedalled on here by one poster with suspicious motives).

This programme (although some of it is a little boring) is well worth a squint at as the people it speaks to are basically ones whose knowledge of the industry (without making their livelihood from it like some of the apologists on here) is such that it's difficult to discredit (though I'm sure Mech will try and come up with yet another spirograph-ish graph to attempt it, lol). It can be viewed on Channel 4s catch up service here:

http://www.channel4.com/video/brandless-catchup.jsp?vodBrand=dispatches-the-truth-about-your-energy-bill

BallandChain

That's great, thanks for the link. I didn't get to watch this episode of Dispatches the first time round so I'll save it to favourites to watch.

lol @ spirograph-ish graph!