NS&I 5 year index linked saving certs 2011 issue - half way point!

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  • bigadaj
    bigadaj Posts: 11,531 Forumite
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    lisyloo wrote: »
    My (potential) invertor will have a 12 year warranty.
    Ok that's not 20 I agree.
    I will have one and it's not that prohibitive to replace.

    Perhaps the technology has moved on since you looked?

    I have certainly looked into warranties and mitigiating the maintainance (having the failable parts in the loft and not on the roof) and that's exactly what I mean by due dilligence.
    People who aren't dilligent and go with cowboys will get problems, but I'd say exactly the same applies to investments.

    It's possible that things improve, however like anything the efficiency of systems tends to degrade with time which is may main concern rather than an absolute failure. Warranties are obviously as valuable as the backers behind them.
  • bigadaj
    bigadaj Posts: 11,531 Forumite
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    lisyloo wrote: »
    I'm kind of with you broadly most of the way until here.

    Woah !! Here we diverge completely.
    I'm not a sophisticated investor although I do have S&S ISA and pensions.
    There is no way I could expect to reasonably get 11% per annum on my investments.
    Perhaps that's because you are a sophsticated investor and I'm not, but there is no way I'd say you can compare that with a government backed 20 year, rising in line with RPI investment.
    NO WAY.

    If you are sophisticated then you need to bear in mind that the majority of the UK population are not sophisticated investors.
    Also you can get bad advice from tied FAs and IFAs just as ou can get poor Solar installers.

    This is a little frustrating because you are comparing apples and oranges.

    Investing in equities means that you still have the capital sum which hopefully keeps rising at a long term average of say 7% in absolute terms.

    Once you've paid for your panels then the lump sum is gone, so assuming your 11% return and ignoring inflation which will add on a couple of years, you actually start making money after nine years, so pure profit in real terms is only going to start in what 15 years.

    I admire your trust but I'm also not convinced that a future government won't modify those subsidies/ guaranteed returns, I do not trust politicians particularly over that time scale when you have a crowd who had no involvement in the original decision.
  • gadgetmind
    gadgetmind Posts: 11,130 Forumite
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    lisyloo wrote: »
    Perhaps the technology has moved on since you looked?

    I'm sure it has, but the feed in tariff has reduced, so I'm not convinced that the numbers would work any better.

    If micro inverters were more common (we had some shading) then things might be different.

    http://www.solarpowerportal.co.uk/guest_blog/the_case_for_micro_inverters_on_residential_pv_systems_2356
    I am not a financial adviser and neither do I play one on television. I might occasionally give bad advice but at least it's free.

    Like all religions, the Faith of the Invisible Pink Unicorns is based upon both logic and faith. We have faith that they are pink; we logically know that they are invisible because we can't see them.
  • lisyloo
    lisyloo Posts: 29,617 Forumite
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    edited 5 February 2014 at 2:58PM
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    however like anything the efficiency of systems tends to degrade with time
    You can look into this but the efficiency of solar panels after 10 or 20 years is very high. I'm not denying that there are other parts that might fail.
    Warranties are obviously as valuable as the backers behind them.
    With manufacturer warranties I agree.
    There are other types of organisation that provide warranties to avoid this issue.

    Obviously if you are dead set against it and dead set on finding all the problems then you probably aren't going to invest.
    I personally have brought up all those sort of questions but a lot of these things can be mitigated. I'm not saying all risks can be avoided but there are ways of mitigating them.
    Once you've paid for your panels then the lump sum is gone, so assuming your 11% return and ignoring inflation which will add on a couple of years, you actually start making money after nine years, so pure profit in real terms is only going to start in what 15 years.

    I agree, so clearly it's only suitable for people who are comfortable with that profile. That doesn't make it bad per se.
    I admire your trust
    Don't. I haven't gone into this blindly.
    I raised all the questions and issues raised here and looked at how I can mitigate them. It's not trust - it's due dillegence and conservative mathematics.#
    but I'm also not convinced that a future government won't modify those subsidies/ guaranteed returns, I do not trust politicians particularly over that time scale when you have a crowd who had no involvement in the original decision.
    It is a risk and one I've considered.
    Obviously it's not for you.
    I'm sure it has, but the feed in tariff has reduced, so I'm not convinced that the numbers would work any better.
    The cost of some things has gone down a lot (other costs haven't).
    You have to look at it on a case-by-case basis taking into account orientation and size.
    I've looked at my plot and it stacks up (with conservative estimates).

    I don't see how you can rule it in or out "en-masse".
    It depends entirely on the situation.

    Martin has just done an aritcle on it (I can't find it right now but it's in the email) so there's more detail on there.
    But I can't take anyone seriously who just rules out the entire idea for everyone - that's just not credible.
  • talexuser
    talexuser Posts: 3,499 Forumite
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    Anyone got NS&I index linked anymore, or have they all been sold for solar panels? ;):):)
  • lisyloo
    lisyloo Posts: 29,617 Forumite
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    Anyone got NS&I index linked anymore, or have they all been sold for solar panels?

    :-) I've got some NSI - and very good they are too.
    Thanks everyone for the solar pV discussion - it's been fun, but I guess we should stop now (or take it elsewhere).

    I hope I have made the point that there are other things to invest in that might suit some individuals as well as shares of course.

    It's all about getting the right balance of risk and reward.
  • veryintrigued
    veryintrigued Posts: 3,843 Forumite
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    Quite a dip on the most recent months figures!!
  • le_loup
    le_loup Posts: 4,047 Forumite
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    Don't forget it's RPI.
  • bigadaj
    bigadaj Posts: 11,531 Forumite
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    talexuser wrote: »
    Anyone got NS&I index linked anymore, or have they all been sold for solar panels? ;):):)

    The problem is that you can't get the linkers anymore, I'd have them if I could.
  • talexuser
    talexuser Posts: 3,499 Forumite
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    veryintrigued wrote: »
    Quite a dip on the most recent months figures!!

    Yes, I was surprised when I looked at this month's calculator, £300 down, I though I had put the wrong starting month in last time! ;)
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