Has anyone seen an impartial review of the house price situation?

SimPaul · 11 March 2008 at 11:07PM

Given that just about EVERYBODY has a vested interest in house prices, has anyone read an unbiased, balance view of the housing market at present?

Seems that articles in broadsheet papers are flooded with comments from hardcore pesimists (who clearly don't have houses at the moment) or those (who clearly have bought recently) who believe prices will continue to remain stable.

Gorgeous_George · 11 March 2008 at 11:12PM

I think that most experts believe prices will fall. If they came out in public and said as much, it would become a self-fulfilling prophecy. So, instead, they say prices will stagnate.

GG

SimPaul · 11 March 2008 at 11:17PM

But the main points behind stagnation are very strong ones:

1) employment is high.
2) interest rates are low, and will stay low for the next few years.

hearts · 11 March 2008 at 11:25PM

Gorgeous_George wrote: »

I think that most experts believe prices will fall. If they came out in public and as much, it would become a self-fulfilling prophecy. So, instead, they say prices will stagnate.

GG

I disagree with this. Most "experts" base their decisions on what is happening. They see no sign of wholesale falls and most say so. Although there have been slight falls in certain areas there is nothing that has pointed to a prolonged term of falls. Indee with the US and others tonight pumping more money into the system to feed the banks. It seems more likely that the housing market will stabalise. ;-)

But them I'm on the Bull side ;-)

Trollfever · 11 March 2008 at 11:26PM

I think that the MSE Boards give a relatively true overview of the very high levels of debt that exist throughout society.

They also indicate the effects of the credit crunch on folks ability to borrow money and the housing market needs FTB's to come in at the bottom to support the market.

jaype · 11 March 2008 at 11:39PM

Add to that the fact that many people don't have huge amounts of equity in their homes - either they have spent it via secured loans or they bought in the last few years and had to get 90 percent mortgages. However, many lenders aren't touching people with less equity than that and those that do charge repayments that many people will now find unaffordable. So you can see that even slight price drops will cause quite a few people pain - repossession rates are rising already. I think the real problem is that the situation is on a knife edge and nobody knows if we will follow the US. You just have to do your research really well if you ant to buy. personally, I'm happy to gie it a year and see if it becomes a bit less murky out there.

Davesnave · 11 March 2008 at 11:45PM

I think by the time regional data has been collected its old news, and the way that data is collected can have an influence too. BBC has info:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_depth/uk_house_prices/html/houses.stm

The Fool does reasonable articles and tries to be balanced, though contributors vary in how severe they think the downturn will be:

http://www.fool.co.uk/news/property-home/2008/03/11/property-prices-plunge-again.aspx

mr.broderick · 11 March 2008 at 11:47PM

I dont think this forum is a fair indication of the house price situation.
Posters like carolt,missmoneypenny,neverdespair girl etc who have gambled their lives on the housing market will always talk down the market and prophecise a crash cause it suits them. Don't get me wrong the bulls on here would say the opposite, I am just about the most impartial poster on here cause it suits me either way and i don't think we'll see a crash in fact i've got a horrible feeling prices will push on again in a few months when ftb realise the crash aint comin and mortgage themselves to the hilt to buy.

poppy10_2 · 12 March 2008 at 12:05AM

SimPaul wrote: »

2) interest rates are low, and will stay low for the next few years.

Says who ?

SquatNow · 12 March 2008 at 1:49AM

SimPaul wrote: »

But the main points behind stagnation are very strong ones:

1) employment is high.
2) interest rates are low, and will stay low for the next few years.

House prices have never EVER stagnated. Ever.

People say it's different this time and it is... debts are high, half the country is on benefits, and prices are twice as high vs wages now than they were in the 80s peak.

ALL independant experts without a vested interest say price will drop. A lot.

Even a lot of banks are predicting drops, for example HSBC are predicting 30% falls.

Game over man GAME OVER!!!!!!!!

epz_2 · 12 March 2008 at 1:50AM

didnt george soros say the uk housing market would fall, an american multibillionare investor is pretty independent but all opinions are tainted by self interest, ballance of probabilities, phycology and some rudementery economics is all you can really base your guess on.

Has anyone seen an impartial review of the house price situation?

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