The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

TrickyTree83 · 19 October 2016 at 2:46PM

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Well they're not daft so we can put that to the side. But a majority, I'm really not sure anymore. And I say that as someone who approached the last independence referendum, like 45% of Scotland did with far more hope than expectation. Something's changed. I don't think it's even the Brexit vote ( though for the 170,000 EU nationals in Scotland that's probably it ).. but more that Tory conference, this relatively new Tory govt in place and the narratives than came from it.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/john-wight/scottish-independence-is-_b_12512554.html

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-article-50-theresa-may-european-union-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-snp-indyref2-independence-a7365246.html

Oh and this idea ain't going to be imposed by anyone after the Brexit vote result.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14809386.__39_Super_majority__39__plan_for_independence_referendum/

Definitely jitters galore out there about Scotland. Tonight even the journo's have gone mad on twitter. Scottish media is in an absolute shambolic state, and London media journos that comment on it 100 times worse. There's an implosion ahead there.

All fantastic sound bites for the independence campaign.

There's no real substance to any of it though. None of them put forward solutions, arguably the Huffington Post article is saying an independent Scotland is a solution for the failure of liberal left politics. The author appears to be slighted by the fact his views are not reflected by the general populace of the UK.

I find articles like the Huffington Post one hard to stomach. They rarely speak about the supra-national aspirations of the EU, about the bureaucracy of it all and even less about the big business lobbyists that purchase favour in one location rather than in many individual countries to influence policy. Imagine being able to shape policy in 28 different countries by only making one payment (smaller than 28 different countries cumulatively), it's a big business wet dream.

Under the bonnet, their socialist nirvana is a bureaucratic racketeering scheme. Where transparency is not mandatory, funny that.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/08/lobbyists-european-parliament-brussels-corporate

Here's some stats on the lobbying they allow you to see:

https://lobbyfacts.eu/

Why are things like this ignored by those with liberal left political perspectives?

TrickyTree83 · 19 October 2016 at 2:56PM

Shakethedisease wrote: »

In the red, along with just about every other area in the UK. Outside the UK, in the red, but at least with opportunities and powers to address it. And possibly by not so much as those with vested interests in keeping Scotland in the UK have presented thus far. There is also 'history' on this which most Scots are well aware of.

When I said different interpretations I meant from GERS itself citing that differing methodologies produce different results as it's impossible to pin down and allocate a lot of figures for Scotland only. Also 1) Some interpret GERS as a sign of how badly Scotland would do upon day 1 independence 2) Others interpret it as a sign of just how badly Scotland fares within the Union.

Only No 2 above is fact at the moment, and like it or not GERS isn't fully trusted in terms of accuracy either.

But that's it. I'm not getting drawn into GERS again. Done to death, you're either in camp 1 or camp 2 and never the twain shall meet I'm afraid.

What opportunities and powers to address it?

Especially if you don't have control over your currency.

Interesting point about camp 2, how do you explain the GVA statistics kindly provided by ssss555s or whatever their name is? If Scotland fares badly in the union why are you enjoying wealth growth higher than many other areas of the UK? Is it completely unrelated to the union and to the way Scotland is treated within it?

Then there's the trade statistics which show internal UK trade for Scotland increasing year on year. It's a growth sector for Scotland linked to an economy that is growing and has been growing fast than any other major economy. You want to detach from that to join the EU which only has stagnant growth, a number of crises to deal with and a number of impending crises on the horizon.

I want to understand the logic behind choosing independence, but there really doesn't seem to be any to understand. What am I missing? What haven't you explained? Is it only political?

If it's only political, why would you choose a union in which your representation would be severely diminished compared to a union in which you are over represented? Which would be easier to have your voice heard?

And lets not pretend that the EU will remain politically adjacent to your view of the majority of Scots either. Politics changes, the political landscape in France, Germany, Austria, Netherlands is changing and not towards the liberal left. The politicians have to answer for that, and yet all we hear is more of the same. I was pleased to hear Donald Tusk acknowledge this political issue, his colleagues are less forthcoming.

TrickyTree83 · 19 October 2016 at 3:01PM

sss555s wrote: »

The trouble is TT83 that I have a vote and you don't. You are obviously on here to try and convince/ justify to yourself that remain is the right choice.

So I will ask you again as someone who hasn't ticked the box yet...

I don't have a vote. But the vote affects me.

I'm just interested in the logic of your decision making. When all the facts and figures point to Scotland doing well in the union why does it make sense to remove Scotland from that?

If your decision making cannot be sufficiently backed up by sound logic, evidence and reason then we can only conclude that you choose independence based on unsound evidence and reasoning, therefore you would be wrong to think that Scotland is better off outside of the UK.

You don't have to prove anything to me, judging by the tone of your posts you don't want to either. So I'll have to draw my own conclusions.

I'm desperately searching for the reason why people support Scottish independence. So far I can only come up with 'because'.

A_Medium_Size_Jock · 19 October 2016 at 4:39PM

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I don't have a vote. But the vote affects me.

I'm just interested in the logic of your decision making. When all the facts and figures point to Scotland doing well in the union why does it make sense to remove Scotland from that?

If your decision making cannot be sufficiently backed up by sound logic, evidence and reason then we can only conclude that you choose independence based on unsound evidence and reasoning, therefore you would be wrong to think that Scotland is better off outside of the UK.

You don't have to prove anything to me, judging by the tone of your posts you don't want to either. So I'll have to draw my own conclusions.

I'm desperately searching for the reason why people support Scottish independence. So far I can only come up with 'because'.

I have a vote.
So do many others that post in this thread - and not all of them agree with Shakey etc. either.
In fact even in this thread (if you read carefully) not even a majority of the Scottish posters are pro-SNP and pro-indy.

I have said before; do not let the viewpoint of a minority of posters here on a public internet forum try to sway you into thinking that ALL Scots (or even a majority, as I have explained before in this thread) are (blindly IMHO) pro-SNP pro-independence.
They are not.

Now there will be ructions from the aforementioned at my daring to suggest any other than their POV.
Wait for it .....................

Shakethedisease · 19 October 2016 at 4:51PM

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

All fantastic sound bites for the independence campaign.

There's no real substance to any of it though. None of them put forward solutions, arguably the Huffington Post article is saying an independent Scotland is a solution for the failure of liberal left politics. The author appears to be slighted by the fact his views are not reflected by the general populace of the UK.

I find articles like the Huffington Post one hard to stomach. They rarely speak about the supra-national aspirations of the EU, about the bureaucracy of it all and even less about the big business lobbyists that purchase favour in one location rather than in many individual countries to influence policy. Imagine being able to shape policy in 28 different countries by only making one payment (smaller than 28 different countries cumulatively), it's a big business wet dream.

Under the bonnet, their socialist nirvana is a bureaucratic racketeering scheme. Where transparency is not mandatory, funny that.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/08/lobbyists-european-parliament-brussels-corporate

Here's some stats on the lobbying they allow you to see:

https://lobbyfacts.eu/

Why are things like this ignored by those with liberal left political perspectives?

There's enough substance in it for people who were draping themselves in union flags in order to cross a No vote, and speaking at public meetings for BetterTogether just two years ago...to have completely and utterly changed their opinions. All have cited Brexit and the current nature of the Tory party. There will be many like them. Goodness I thought nothing on this planet would ever get someone like Hamish to even contemplate voting for independence.

.string. · 19 October 2016 at 5:09PM

Shakethedisease wrote: »

For the benefit once again of those who seem to have somehow interpreted 'deficit' for 'getting on the with day job'. The headline alone is spoonfeeding people untruths. It does not say 'Face Facts.. Sturgeon should get on with the day job'.

And as I went at lengths to explain there are two areas where deficit is used, the article is about the deficit between Scottish income and Scottish earnings, not about the block grant. You and the SNP like to talk about the block grant because you can reasonably claim that there is no deficit for the grant, but the rest of us talk about the former because that is the more important when comes to the financial viability of a separated Scotland.

So there is no prima facie case against the headline unless, repeat unless, one refuses to acknowledge the other more general use of the term "deficit" and want to avoid discussion of it.

For your convenience, I repeat the url of the headline and the text that follows it.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/face-facts-sturgeon-is-failing-to-act-on-deficit-0lxskmhzw

Shakethedisease · 19 October 2016 at 5:14PM

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

What opportunities and powers to address it?

Especially if you don't have control over your currency.

Err the same fiscal powers Westminster has ?

Interesting point about camp 2, how do you explain the GVA statistics kindly provided by ssss555s or whatever their name is? If Scotland fares badly in the union why are you enjoying wealth growth higher than many other areas of the UK? Is it completely unrelated to the union and to the way Scotland is treated within it?

Then there's the trade statistics which show internal UK trade for Scotland increasing year on year. It's a growth sector for Scotland linked to an economy that is growing and has been growing fast than any other major economy. You want to detach from that to join the EU which only has stagnant growth, a number of crises to deal with and a number of impending crises on the horizon.

Trade with both. The bigger market on preferential rates which rUK might no longer enjoy. Perhaps join EFTA/EEA instead of it comes to it. Plus the potential to expand future trade within the EU. Staying with the UK for fear of tariffs seems a bit short termist and a backwards step in my own opinion regarding trade.

I want to understand the logic behind choosing independence, but there really doesn't seem to be any to understand. What am I missing? What haven't you explained? Is it only political?

If it's only political, why would you choose a union in which your representation would be severely diminished compared to a union in which you are over represented? Which would be easier to have your voice heard?

I think it was economics that won the day in 2014. For 45% of those who voted, I think honestly most of them/us voted Yes on mainly political grounds. Brexit has turned that on it's head but there's always a mix of the two in play.

And lets not pretend that the EU will remain politically adjacent to your view of the majority of Scots either. Politics changes, the political landscape in France, Germany, Austria, Netherlands is changing and not towards the liberal left. The politicians have to answer for that, and yet all we hear is more of the same. I was pleased to hear Donald Tusk acknowledge this political issue, his colleagues are less forthcoming.

Many feel that Scotland is a bit of an afterthought in UK politics and economics. That's ok, because of course it's only a small part of the UK.

However, a lot of policies don't always fit very well with Scotland's needs ( immigration for one, there was SO much talk of an aging population in the last referendum ). And during the last General Election the way Scotland's possible representatives were treated was an absolute disgrace imo. Any political party or Ed Miliband etc even looking at them the wrong way was howled at in the press. Lots of it spilled over to plain anti-Scottishness. Nowadays anything the SNP put to Westminster is generally voted down by both Labour and the Conservatives. One really has to ask what the point is of them being there representing their Scottish constituents sometimes.

It will happen again of course in the 2020 GE if Scotland is still in the UK.

Shakethedisease · 19 October 2016 at 5:15PM

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Now there will be ructions from the aforementioned at my daring to suggest any other than their POV.
Wait for it .....................

**Scrolls past**;)

TrickyTree83 · 19 October 2016 at 5:17PM

Shakethedisease wrote: »

There's enough substance in it for people who only two years ago were draping themselves in union flags in order to cross a No vote, and speaking at public meetings for BetterTogether just two years ago...to have completely and utterly changed their opinions. All have cited Brexit and the current nature of the Tory party. There will be many like them. Goodness I thought nothing on this planet would ever get someone like Hamish to even contemplate voting for independence.

Take Hamish as an example then.

He, like Angus Robertson and Nicola Sturgeon, appear to think that the EU single market is the be all and end all for Scotland, and that coming out of the single market (11% of your trade) merits removing yourself from the UK (64% of your trade) in order to protect and enhance trade with the EU (again, 11%).

It's also removing the over representation Scotland currently enjoys within Westminster, to now play on an equal playing field with the rest of the EU. No longer will you have a say in what 66m people say, you will only represent 5m and what they say in a union nearly 100 times your size.

No longer would you enjoy increased funding (incl. provision for North Sea oil revenue) through Barnett. No longer would you enjoy the use of the Great British Pound, the capital flows, the investment and the fiscal levers with which to steer the UK economy. You will peg to Sterling, you will join the Euro, or you will create your own. I'm sure you're well aware that none of those options are particularly attractive, even with Sterling having fallen 20% in value. You will lose revenue that you currently spend, whilst also acknowledging that you spend more than you generate right now. How is that sustainable when you lose the extra £1,200 per head?

You speak about these people railing against Brexit and Conservative government. And yet don't take into account the 1m people in Scotland who voted to leave the EU, and those who may not have voted but who also feel as though their communities have suffered through EU policy. As Hamish rightly pointed out, a large proportion of the UK's fishing waters are around Scotland. How many Scottish communities have suffered as a result? With Brexit promising to return these rights, jobs, trade and revenue and independent Scotland in the EU will immediately return them to Brussels.

For every hysterical liberal there will be people whose lives will be improved by repatriation of power from Brussels to Westminster and Holyrood. What of their voting intentions?

Alongside this I seem to recall reading about a large proportion of SNP voters who voted to leave the EU, against the wishes of the SNP who wanted a remain vote in case the rest of the UK voted to leave (so they could get their 2nd indy ref). These SNP voters must be terribly disillusioned with SNP politics now. Not only did these voters want an independent Scotland, but they wanted it to be independent of everyone and everything. Not subservient to the EU. What of these voters?

I think it's far from clear that the political momentum is with the SNP, it's also quite possible that we have indeed reached 'peak SNP' purely because they have now strayed from their original mantra and will now agree to be a satellite of a different, more bureaucratic union than the one they currently inhabit.

kabayiri · 19 October 2016 at 5:18PM

Shakethedisease wrote: »

...
You never answered the question I asked you. rUK GDP and Balance of payments if Scotland leaves. Markets ? Would you care to give us all your opinion on this too. I've asked nicely and in a polite waffly way twice now and I'd be very interested in your thoughts.

This puzzles me.

Why do you relish the thought of your major trading partner entering recession just as Scotland goes independent?

This is particularly relevant if you intend to continue using the same currency for a while at least, and certainly if you don't really have control on that currency.

Surely you want a timing and transition plan to independence which gives you the strongest chance of success? That is likely to involve good trading with rUK yes?

In a similar vein with Brexit, I am hoping that pragmatism wins out and the EU is able to enjoy healthy trade with UK and vice versa. The EU has enough issues other than Brexit to deal with.

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The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

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