Premium Bonds Article Discussion Area

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  • ennnceee
    ennnceee Posts: 28 Forumite
    First Post First Anniversary Combo Breaker
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    Thank you both.
    Filiss
  • KTF
    KTF Posts: 4,820 Forumite
    First Post Combo Breaker First Anniversary
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    Does anyone use a spreadsheet to track the average return based on time held, prizes won, etc?

    I am trying to put one together but struggling with the formulas at the moment.
  • talexuser
    talexuser Posts: 3,499 Forumite
    Name Dropper First Post First Anniversary
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    I just have starting amount say A1 and total prizes B1 then increase is =A1/B1*100 as a %.

    Starting date is C1 and current date is C2 the time invested is
    =(YEAR(C2)-YEAR(C1))*12+MONTH(C2)-MONTH(C1) as no of months.

    then the equivalent yearly AER is the =% above/(no of months/12)
  • KTF
    KTF Posts: 4,820 Forumite
    First Post Combo Breaker First Anniversary
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    Thanks :) It was the yearly AER I was struggling to work out.

    Now it gives me a better idea of the return rather than the general % increase based on the total + prizes.
  • Murphybear
    Murphybear Posts: 7,294 Forumite
    First Anniversary Name Dropper Photogenic First Post
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    I bought £6000 of PSBs earlier this year to go in the April draw.

    According to the MSE calculator if I have average luck I should expect 1 x £25 win in the first year.

    My winnings have been

    April £0
    May £0
    June £0
    July 2 x £25
    August 2 x £25
    September 1 x £25


    The £125 is automatically reinvested so I now have £6125

    Sounds like a good return to me.

    Looks like I have 5 x average luck in the first 6 months.
  • Paul_Herring
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    Looks like I have 5 x average luck in the first 6 months.

    ... not to put a downer on this, but... ;)
    Conjugating the verb 'to be":
    -o I am humble -o You are attention seeking -o She is Nadine Dorries
  • eskbanker
    eskbanker Posts: 31,335 Forumite
    First Anniversary Name Dropper Photogenic First Post
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    Murphybear wrote: »
    I bought £6000 of PSBs earlier this year to go in the April draw.

    According to the MSE calculator if I have average luck I should expect 1 x £25 win in the first year.
    Not when I do it - it shows £75 as the anticipated 'average luck' return from £6K for a year, which, at 1.25%, is much as would be expected for a non-trivial holding over a non-trivial time period.

    If you've actually won £125 you're still obviously doing better than average though, just not by as much as you'd apparently thought....
  • Chris_in_Ashtead
    Chris_in_Ashtead Posts: 19 Forumite
    First Anniversary First Post Photogenic
    edited 18 February 2020 at 11:56PM
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    I was given a Premium Bond by family relatives when I was born. I'm now 61 years old and have NEVER won any prize. And yes, I have checked it for winnings on the NS&I web site checking service.
  • eskbanker
    eskbanker Posts: 31,335 Forumite
    First Anniversary Name Dropper Photogenic First Post
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    I was given a Premium Bond by family relatives when I was born. I'm now 61 years old and have NEVER won any prize. And yes, I have checked it for winnings on the NS&I web site checking service.
    The odds of a single bond winning a prize are about 1 in 24,500 in any given month (but about to get worse), so on average you'd expect to win something roughly every 2,000 years, i.e. don't hold your breath!
  • The_Bleurk
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    Slightly pessimistic: £1 would be a prize every 0.25 million years. £25 every 10000 years. But.... contrary to many beliefs it is statistically well behaved - hold £50k max and you will see 
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