Premium Bonds Article Discussion Area

Charles77

small number of bonds are a waste of time, similarly buying say 100 here and 300 there  to build up a large holding will also not work. If you have done this then in the week before the draw cash in all but 1 (to keep your account active) then buy the most you can in one go before the end of the month (so you only miss 1 draw).so if you had 4-5K in bits and pieces with very low chance you now have a contiguous block of say 5K and stand a good chance, not so much of the big prizes but of being one of the millions of £25s each month.  I had 1000 in for two and half years and ended up with 350 in winnings. i know of nowhere to put my money safe and available with a simple phone call and no penalty for withdrawing it. it is like catching drops of light rain in a bowl - bigger the bowl more raindrops you catch - in April 202 there were 3,449,982 prizes of £25 bigger your holding in a single block bigger your chance of a hit

eskbanker

Charles77 said:

buying say 100 here and 300 there  to build up a large holding will also not work

[...]

if you had 4-5K in bits and pieces with very low chance you now have a contiguous block of say 5K and stand a good chance

[...]

bigger your holding in a single block bigger your chance of a hit

It's a myth that a single block of 5,000 bonds has a different chance of winning a prize than 5,000 individual bonds, or any other permutation of the same total holding, the draw is random.

LizB62

Charles77 said:

small number of bonds are a waste of time, similarly buying say 100 here and 300 there  to build up a large holding will also not work. If you have done this then in the week before the draw cash in all but 1 (to keep your account active) then buy the most you can in one go before the end of the month (so you only miss 1 draw).so if you had 4-5K in bits and pieces with very low chance you now have a contiguous block of say 5K and stand a good chance, not so much of the big prizes but of being one of the millions of £25s each month.  I had 1000 in for two and half years and ended up with 350 in winnings. i know of nowhere to put my money safe and available with a simple phone call and no penalty for withdrawing it. it is like catching drops of light rain in a bowl - bigger the bowl more raindrops you catch - in April 202 there were 3,449,982 prizes of £25 bigger your holding in a single block bigger your chance of a hit

It's a random draw......

polymaff

Charles77 said:

small number of bonds are a waste of time, similarly buying say 100 here and 300 there  to build up a large holding will also not work. If you have done this then in the week before the draw cash in all but 1 (to keep your account active) then buy the most you can in one go before the end of the month (so you only miss 1 draw).so if you had 4-5K in bits and pieces with very low chance you now have a contiguous block of say 5K and stand a good chance, not so much of the big prizes but of being one of the millions of £25s each month.  I had 1000 in for two and half years and ended up with 350 in winnings. i know of nowhere to put my money safe and available with a simple phone call and no penalty for withdrawing it. it is like catching drops of light rain in a bowl - bigger the bowl more raindrops you catch - in April 202 there were 3,449,982 prizes of £25 bigger your holding in a single block bigger your chance of a hit

Your evidence, please, Methuselah ...

YellowStarling

Perhaps Mr 77 would like a large majority of PB holders that have incrementally built up their holdings to remove themselves for one draw whilst their replacement holdings are assigned, thereby leaving the path clear for his holdings to stand a greater chance of scooping a prize.  If that is his plan, then cunning it is.  If it's genuine advice, then the laws of random will mean any who heed it simply miss a month for no statistical gain.

polymaff

This is all so ironic.  It may be that winning is not random - and if it isn't random then it will probably due to something really simple in the process that nobody has thought of - because the way we look at these things is to try to  spot some obscure, complex aspect of the process.  I guess that we can't accept that the human being - still at issue 0.0 - is DUMB.

As contemporary evidence, I refer you to Dexamethasone.

AnotherJoe

This thread is like fly paper for the statistically challenged and conspiratorially minded.

Phil3822

Just reading through some of this and got me thinking. I have had £10000 in premium bonds for the past 14 months, during that time I have won £25 five times. £125 over the 14 months. Not sure if that’s ok or not and would benefit from any advise. I have another £10000 which I am considering adding and is currently in a very poor Halifax ISA. I am ok at saving but have historically spent it before worrying about where to place it. Those times have changed. Appreciate any thoughts and if my bonds returns are working ok for me. Thanks all,

coyrls

Phil3822 said:

Just reading through some of this and got me thinking. I have had £10000 in premium bonds for the past 14 months, during that time I have won £25 five times. £125 over the 14 months. Not sure if that’s ok or not and would benefit from any advise. I have another £10000 which I am considering adding and is currently in a very poor Halifax ISA. I am ok at saving but have historically spent it before worrying about where to place it. Those times have changed. Appreciate any thoughts and if my bonds returns are working ok for me. Thanks all,

Your bond returns to date will have no effect on your bond returns in the future, so referencing your historical returns has no relevance.

polymaff

Phil3822 said:

Just reading through some of this and got me thinking. I have had £10000 in premium bonds for the past 14 months, during that time I have won £25 five times. £125 over the 14 months. Not sure if that’s ok or not and would benefit from any advise.  Thanks all,

The present effective rate of return on a large holding is 1.26%. Your £125 on £10,000 is bang on that figure.  OK, it took you just over the year, but you have somewhat less than a full holding.  All in all, a pretty typical performance.