Tesla News & Discussion

Tesla Model S and X sales are down year on year - main factor is probably not new EVs from Audi, Prosche etc but that those who want a long range EV and were forced to chose the S and X as that was the only game in town can now buy a model 3 LR for a lot less.

Which brings us on to the Model Y - as a European buyer the Y seems to be much more in tune with what people want to purchase than the 3 - certainly in the UK the market for a low seated booted saloon is much smaller than that for a higher suv/crossover with a hatch. If the price differential between a 3 and a y is small I can see the current demand for the 3 disappearing to be replaced by even more sales of the Y. (I know some markets like the US and China probably have more 'sedan' sales).

The point of the above is that I don't actually see demand for the Model Y being in addition to current demand for the M3 but to a large extent cannibalistic. Thus if the M Y can sell 400k per year this might be at the expense of M3 sales falling from 300k pa to 150k pa - still more sales overall for Tesla but not simply a matter of adding M Y to existing M3.

Another take on the Tesla unintended acceleration/conspiracy theory story - from a pro EV site so no ‘deny till you die’ claims please.

https://electrek.co/2020/01/20/tesla-defends-against-claims-unintended-acceleration-tsla-short/

Cardew wrote: »

Conceding that some buy an EV for environmental reasons, I can't help thinking that the discussion on EVs in general is dominated by the British obsession with 'fuel' costs - (MPG in earlier days)

What does the average motorist spend on petrol/diesel in a year? For 10k miles pa @ 40mpg with fuel @£1.30 a litre it is £1,475pa. As every motoring magazine will say that sum is 'small beer' against cost of depreciation on new cars - less so with older cars.

Personally I believe that to overcome the the range/'refueling' disadvantage of EVs, the prices should reduce to below that of comparable IC cars. A Hybrid without such a price premium would be a better bet.

Hi

But that argument falls into the 'average' logic trap you've set ....

An 'average' motorist averaging 10k miles/year won't be experiencing range anxiety on a regular basis and likely would be 'refuelling' on a much advantageous basis - ie, at home at a convenient time, probably weekly or even once every other week with only the occasional use of the fast charge network .... at the other end of the logic scale we have the motorists which would logically experience the range and fuelling issues you raise on a regular basis, but they would be ones racking up well over 10k miles per year, therefore their fuel costs would far exceed the ~£1500 you calculated & propose ... using your own logic wouldn't a rep-mobile covering 50k miles/year have a fuel cost of 5x as much (?), so somewhere in excess of £7k/year with considerable high mileage maintenance costs above that? (I know someone that has his car serviced every couple of months (cost!), but still needs a regular rest break even with an ICE vehicle (potential charging windows!) !!)

Attempting to employ generalisation to convey both low savings & range anxiety at the same time seems to be more than a little illogical ... what are you attempting to say? .... low mileage motorists won't see much of a fuel saving so EVs aren't worthwhile? -or- high mileage motorists will spend half of their waking hours static & watching electrons trickle into their modern day milk-float so EVs aren't worthwhile? ... sorry, the argument is wildly outdated & about as cohesive as placing all UK PV in the South-West as opposed to a combination of being close to centres of population & demand side!!

HTH
Z

ABrass wrote: »

... I can see a future where non ICE vehicles are banned unless they are hybrids with a certain range. Beyond that they're going to struggle as BEVs become cheaper and as the ranges increase.

Hi

Don't need a crystal ball for that one ... it's stated government policy to achieve this for new vehicle sales by 2040!

HTH
Z