Tesla News & Discussion

GreatApe

Cardew wrote: »

Conceding that some buy an EV for environmental reasons, I can't help thinking that the discussion on EVs in general is dominated by the British obsession with 'fuel' costs - (MPG in earlier days)


What does the average motorist spend on petrol/diesel in a year? For 10k miles pa @ 40mpg with fuel @£1.30 a litre it is £1,475pa. As every motoring magazine will say that sum is 'small beer' against cost of depreciation on new cars - less so with older cars.


Personally I believe that to overcome the the range/'refueling' disadvantage of EVs, the prices should reduce to below that of comparable IC cars. A Hybrid without such a price premium would be a better bet.

7,200 miles average and a hybrid will get real world 62mpg or about £660 per year in fuel costs and you only need to fill up once a month

With EU regulations most likely the average new car will soon become a hybrid since they do truely offer large fuel savings and presumably less maintenance and wear due to running about one third of the time on the electric motor

Hybrids are also quite affordable
Corrolla hybrid £22k, ionic hybrid £20k etc

GreatApe

ABrass wrote: »

Hybrids have all the cost of an ICE and some of the cost of an EV (motor, power electronics). They're always going to cost more than an ICE vehicle.[/code]

This is a common misconception it's quite wrong to think a hybrid is carrying full size versions of both in fact a hybrid carries a smaller version of both so it works out okay

Say you what to produce a car that is 150HP
You could have 150HP ICE or 150HP EV
Or a 100HP ICE & 50HP electric hybrid

So you can have a smaller simpler ICE for the same HP
What's more the electric side produces a LOT of torque at the low end so the 150HP hybrid will be faster than the 150HP pure ICE

Having said that yes you pay more for the hybrid but not a lot more because you only need a very tiny battery. Just 1.5KWh in the corrolla or Ionic Hybrid. That's 40x less batteries/weight/cost than a full EV

Likewise you only need 50HP electric engine rather than 150HP electric engine in the pure EV
Likewise you only need power electronics to handle 50HP rather than 150HP

All said hybrids end up pretty affordable
The ionic hybrid is just £19,500
The corrolla (best selling car in world history) hybrid is just £21,500
And both achieve >60mpg real world

I can see a future where non ICE vehicles are banned unless they are hybrids with a certain range. Beyond that they're going to struggle as BEVs become cheaper and as the ranges increase.

I can see a future where humanity sheds it's biology and we end up as digital data in virtual realities. These debates are meaningless without timing

I don't think BEV numbers will exceed ICE numbers on the road for the next 30-60 years
Hybrids could dominate quite rapidly as there is no manufacturing capacity limits
You can build 40-60 hybrids for the same batteries as just 1 BEV

And that would be a very positive development
To have all new cars as hybrids by say 2025
That would reduce fuel burn by at least 25-30% which is very significant

1961Nick

GreatApe wrote: »

While the market is indeed slowly going towards SUVs and taller bigger cars the fact is 7 of the top 10 selling cars are small hatchbacks and the 3 SUVs are small cheap SUVs.

Tesla will stay a niche brand for some time maybe for the foreseeable
The average of the top 10 selling cars in the UK only cost £16,000
Model 3 is closer to £40,000

They really need something considerably cheaper than a model 3 if they want to enter the volume market

A model 2 the size of a golf/focus for £25,000 (golf and focus are around £18,000)
A model 1 the size of a polo/Fiesta for £20,000 (polo/Fiesta are £13-14k)

And their model 1 can be their self drive taxi fleet

Tesla will probably carry on allocating batteries to whichever segment gives them the highest margin. That's currently the luxury & premium sectors ... but the trend is downward so we may see a golf rival before too long.

1961Nick

zeupater wrote: »

Hi

Don't need a crystal ball for that one ... it's stated government policy to achieve this for new vehicle sales by 2040!

HTH
Z

The main hurdle won't be the mass adoption of EV's, it'll be the ability of the grid to cope with domestic charging. Most properties with off street parking could cope with charging one EV @ 7.2 kW/h, but two or more EV's plus the domestic load is running close to 80/100 amps. These sort of loads would ideally be more suitable for a 415v 3 phase supply which is going to be expensive.

Smart charging might offer some leeway during the transition from ICE.

JKenH

Tesla now worth more than VW.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3533359-tesla-joins-100b-club-tops-volkswagen

1961Nick

JKenH wrote: »

Tesla now worth more than VW.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3533359-tesla-joins-100b-club-tops-volkswagen

Next stop Toyota ... hopefully!

Martyn1981

1961Nick wrote: »

The main hurdle won't be the mass adoption of EV's, it'll be the ability of the grid to cope with domestic charging. Most properties with off street parking could cope with charging one EV @ 7.2 kW/h, but two or more EV's plus the domestic load is running close to 80/100 amps. These sort of loads would ideally be more suitable for a 415v 3 phase supply which is going to be expensive.

Smart charging might offer some leeway during the transition from ICE.

The average draw, based on 30m vehicles (8,000 miles / 2,000kWh pa) and 20m homes is ~340W or 680W if we assume 8pm to 8am.

I'd suggest that most homes wouldn't need to charge two BEV's at the same, though of course it will arise, but for average daily driving I've found a 2.2kW granny charge is fine, so two (or three of them), ideally on different rings would be fine. Plus of combinations of 7kW plus a granny charge.

Of course, not all BEV's will be charged at home, or at night, but that would make the issue you raise easier, not harder.

zeupater

Cardew wrote: »

Not 'attempting to say' firmly stating that as my opinion!


You introduced high annual mileage vehicles - not I. So feel free to agree with yourself.

Hi

So your definition (/'opinion') of average mileage is that of low mileage vehicles only ?? ... I would have thought that 10k miles/year as an 'average' to support your point would include both low mileage & high mileage motoring - isn't that what average as applied (ie mean average as opposed to median or mode) really means?? ...

Additionally, isn't the current UK average somewhere around 7.5k/year, well down from the ~12 that I seem to remember from the '80s & ~10k around the turn of this century? ... look at it as worse return for low mileage EV motoring if you're a 'glass half empty' individual, but a clear win for those interested in doing their bit on environmental issues that would normally look to see the glass as being 'half full' - and that's even before we start considering decarbonisation of those miles travelled ...

Whether 'half full' or 'half empty' it's not in your remit to redefine the definition of 'average' to suit & support whatever opinion you may hold ... by all means have an opinion, but when the position posed fails the application of even the most basic of logic tests there's really no need to 'attempt' to apply a web of spin to deflect attention from the exposure of contradictory opinion ...

The point you raised whilst opining on an 'average motorist' covering 10k miles/year must include both low & high mileage motorists else why use the term 'average' or a figure of 10k miles and your argument related to cost & range/anxiety (described as ' range/'refueling' disadvantage of EVs')?, therefore your 'opinion', which you are totally within you rights to hold, must be considered as being open to query & reflection else what's the point of posting on an open forum? ... my own opinion may run parallel to your own in many ways at the moment, however, looking at the potential for technical developments & economies of scale as EV production & supporting infrastructure provision inevitably ramps up & people become more 'savvy' regarding EV motoring, that's a position which I accept will change rapidly ..... but then again, the glass here is generally one of positivity where logic dictates that employing positivity is well grounded ...

Anyway, I'm going to be positive & put the kettle on to replace the 'half full' mug of coffee that's gone cold whilst typing this as opposed to sitting here & forever staring into a 'half empty' one whilst moaning & pointing fingers at someone else, as if that would actually achieve anything!! .... Can do, will do, soon to be done! ...

HTH
Z

zeupater

zeupater wrote: »

... Anyway, I'm going to be positive & put the kettle on to replace the 'half full' mug of coffee that's gone cold whilst typing this as opposed to sitting here & forever staring into a 'half empty' one whilst moaning & pointing fingers at someone else, as if that would actually achieve anything!! .... Can do, will do, soon to be done! ...

... :coffee:... Done ... :cool:

almillar

I didn't want to enter another thread but...


GreatApe:

Just 1.5KWh in the corrolla or Ionic Hybrid.

That's 5 miles of range! What's the point?!

Likewise you only need 50HP electric engine rather than 150HP electric engine in the pure EV
Likewise you only need power electronics to handle 50HP rather than 150HP

Related to your other thread on discharge rate, you'll not be getting 50hp out of 1.5kWh of battery.

You can build 40-60 hybrids for the same batteries as just 1 BEV

So you want 40, 1kWh hybrids, instead of 1, 40kWh Leaf?

Please check your numbers again.

1961Nick

The main hurdle won't be the mass adoption of EV's, it'll be the ability of the grid to cope with domestic charging.

The National Grid don't seem worried about this. As has been said so many times before, many cars will be charged at home, overnight, when there is plenty of capacity. And of course, every car won't need to charge every night.

but two or more EV's plus the domestic load is running close to 80/100 amps

Most homes have 1 phase AC, and modern ones have a 100A fuse. Round my way, we wouldn't be allowed 2x7kW chargers (2x32A) because that doesn't leave enough, plus overhead for the house. If you insisted on 2 chargers, you would do it with 3kW ones (2x16A), or have a 7kW and just use a 3 -pin (2.4kW) for the other. Again, if you need to charge 2 cars overnight, you're doing 100+ miles per day, per car!