When will fossil fuel useage peak a general discussion
Options
Comments
-
The consumer is already paying for curtailment so why do you include that in the cost?
Why not pay generators the curtailment payment +5% for any energy diverted to chemical storage? It's extra income for the generator & the hydrogen plant pays virtually nothing for energy.
Why is that an accounting trick if everyone wins?
Perhaps GA's misunderstanding relates to the subsidy payments and therefore the guaranteed strike price.
So if the wind farm had a £50/MWh CfD strike price contract, then as we've discussed, they will get £50 regardless. It might be because they sell at £50, or they sell at £100 and have to repay £50, or for the purposes of our discussion get paid £0 (and a £50 top up) when there is no demand.
Now, how much did the leccy cost us, is £0/MWh or £50/MWh. I'm going to suggest it's £0, as that is what the wholesale price will reflect, and that's what it was sold at.
The £50 subsidy top up, is also paid by us (via the green levies) but not by the wholesale market, and won't be reflected in the cost of the leccy that arrives after adding all additional supplier costs.
This may appear to be a trick, con, game etc. etc. but it helps us to separate the subsidies which are of course tumbling, into a secondary column.
For the storage business, what you are talking about, and I have to be clear, agree with what you are saying, they will not see the leccy at £50, but at £0. And that's a fairer basis to work on, since in the medium term we will see the subsidy payments reduce per MWh as the earliest and costliest schemes, rollouts, farms etc reach the end of their subsidy term. To include the 'subsidy column' costs in our grand MSE plans to rollout storage would make it next to impossible as we'd be dealing with a moving target, rather than a relatively stable wholesale market - stable in operation, but of course massively variable in spot prices.
And back to the start and your statement, yep, curtailment costs are nothing to do with RE, or subsidies etc, they are simply payments made in return for a powerstation to sit ready for immediate action. Some time back I recall an analysis was done, and wind was providing approx 10% of UK annual leccy, and also receiving ~10% of curtailment payments, hardly unfair, but wind curtailment costs were making the DM's pages almost daily.
Edit - Unless he thinks we're talking about paying curtailment payments and then they still generate and sell the leccy, but of course curtailment wouldn't be needed with large amounts of storage. M.Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW). Two A2A units for cleaner heating.
For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.0 -
Under no real system will we want to invent mass chemical storage where you put in three units and get out one unit
More likely we will mass build interconntors so the majority of excess is exported and the majority of needs are imported. This will greatly reduce the need for any chemical dance.
There will be a need to produce hydrogen to make ammonia for fertilisers
And there will probably be a need to produce liquid hydrogen for air travel and perhaps shipping too. But no electricity to electricity with a chemical dance in-between resulting in 3 units in 1 unit out0 -
Under no real system will we want to invent mass chemical storage where you put in three units and get out one unit
More likely we will mass build interconntors so the majority of excess is exported and the majority of needs are imported. This will greatly reduce the need for any chemical dance.
There will be a need to produce hydrogen to make ammonia for fertilisers
And there will probably be a need to produce liquid hydrogen for air travel and perhaps shipping too. But no electricity to electricity with a chemical dance in-between resulting in 3 units in 1 unit out
By comparison, curtailment is 3 units in zero units out
3 units in 1 unit out sounds infinitely better to me.4kWp (black/black) - Sofar Inverter - SSE(141°) - 30° pitch - North LincsInstalled June 2013 - PVGIS = 3400Sofar ME3000SP Inverter & 5 x Pylontech US2000B Plus & 3 x US2000C Batteries - 19.2kWh0 -
By comparison, curtailment is 3 units in zero units out
3 units in 1 unit out sounds infinitely better to me.
Once again, I suspect GA doesn't understand that those 3 units you refer to are waste. They are after direct consumption, export and intra-day storage.
Not only is 3 in 1 out better than nothing, but the demand for those units will create a price floor for the generators. It might be a low floor, but it's better than zero or negative.
Studies at the moment seem to suggest that overcapcity is the cheapest way to get into the 90%+ RE ranges for penetration, but as costs and tech develop, it will only be a matter of time before longer term, less cycled, large scale storage rolls, especially for countries like the UK, where our PV generation is more seasonal and less reliable - I can't imagine The UK RE mix reflected the suggested world mix for 100% where around 70% comes from solar, but given our vast wind resources we have nothing to worry about when it comes to winter RE volume generation.
Here's mention of one 100% RE story, but there are many more, also this is energy, not just electricity.
A global 100% renewable energy systemMart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW). Two A2A units for cleaner heating.
For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.0 -
Can you guarantee that there would always be a market for our surplus wind generation? Isn't it possible that we could end up with a situation similar to gas where the price occasionally goes negative?Who says you have to curtail and around which year do you think this becomes a problem for the UK?
If the Uk really is determined to go 90% RE, then there's going to be a lot of over capacity. That's fine as long as there's a market at the end of the inter-connectors. If not, it makes sense to build local storage capability.4kWp (black/black) - Sofar Inverter - SSE(141°) - 30° pitch - North LincsInstalled June 2013 - PVGIS = 3400Sofar ME3000SP Inverter & 5 x Pylontech US2000B Plus & 3 x US2000C Batteries - 19.2kWh0 -
Can you guarantee that there would always be a market for our surplus wind generation? Isn't it possible that we could end up with a situation similar to gas where the price occasionally goes negative?
If the Uk really is determined to go 90% RE, then there's going to be a lot of over capacity. That's fine as long as there's a market at the end of the inter-connectors. If not, it makes sense to build local storage capability.
It depends on how many interconntors you build and to where.
The UK looks likely to have 20GW over the next ten years (13GW within 5 yrs)
What we can say for sure is that this curtailment problem isn't a problem for at least the next 15 years probably not even a problem for the next 25 years.
Also we will probably have at least 12h battery storage in the system.
This means a windfarm does not need to discharge to summer nights when demand might only be 21GW instead it can discharge into the average which is closer to 30GW.
As you electrify heating and transport all these numbers go up
The correlation of wind power output between the UK and it's neighbours isn't that high it's much lower than PV. What this means is when it's really windy here it isn't necessarily really windy in France. This Friday Saturday Sunday and today is windy in the UK not so windy in France
Also you can design wind farms to be higher capacity factor and this is likely to happen
Going from 40% offshore capacity factor to 60% offshore capacity factor makes a huge difference
To generate 500TWh from wind power needs
142.7 GW @40% or
95.1 GW @60%
A huge difference0 -
HiCan you guarantee that there would always be a market for our surplus wind generation? Isn't it possible that we could end up with a situation similar to gas where the price occasionally goes negative?
If the Uk really is determined to go 90% RE, then there's going to be a lot of over capacity. That's fine as long as there's a market at the end of the inter-connectors. If not, it makes sense to build local storage capability.
This is the crux of an argument that's been going on for the most part of a decade now - interconnectors are fine for when there's a peak in demand which can be satisfied from an out-of-area source, but only when that source has a supply surplus ... take for example the often mentioned connectivity to French nuclear where much of the peak supply viability of the connection to the UK resolves to time shifted peak demand due to time zones - if for some reason the UK was to harmonise time with CET (financial, working day etc ...) then the periods of peak demand would be more aligned, which could pose a significant problem!
The same individual(s) are replaying exactly the same old anti-RE arguments in exactly the same old way as has been repeated many times over the years, it's just a case of dragging comparatively new members in (new meat!), firing up the same old well rehearsed lines in a compelling way, then standing back to enjoy the disruption whilst employing a stick poking strategy when deemed necessary ....
HTH
Z"We are what we repeatedly do, excellence then is not an act, but a habit. " ...... Aristotle
0 -
Also you can do a comparison of batteries Vs hydrogen
We know the hydrogen without accounting tricks is going to cost £150+/MWh
If you assume batteries have a life of 25 years £100/KWh how frequently would it have to cycle to cost £150/MWh?
You get a figure of almost two weeks
What this means is it's better to do hydrogen if the storage is needed in excess of two weeks and better to do batteries if the storage is needed less than two weeks
Again this further reduces the need to do any significant quantities of the chemical dance
1 Interconnectors
2 batteries
2.5 probably a hell of a lot more options
3 chemicals dance0 -
If there is real interest in this matter, not just more argument baiting and anti-RE nonsense, then perhaps we should note that this Saturday gas generation got down to 2.6GW with zero coal, and nuclear running below max.
So we could argue that we are nearer to the need for large scale storage to make use of 'waste' RE already.
In reality it's far more complex, and I assume far more complex again than I can think of, but some issues would be:- Expansion of RE is still on going - so more excess.
- Nuclear capacity whilst below max now, will still fall over the next decade or so as the old plants close - so less excess.
- BEV storage will expand naturally, but still slow, and limited V2G so far - mixed results.
- Supply and demand side battery storage - less excess.
- More interconnectors coming on line - less excess due to export.
- More interconnectors coming on line - more excess if storage full having imported cheap excess.
- Cheaper RE, so overcapacity economically acceptable - more excess.
- Increased demand for leccy (transport and space heating) - less excess.
I'm not trying to reach a time conclusion, and I'm sure the list is vastly greater, I'm simply suggesting it's a very hard question and will be impacted by multiple technologies and cost changes too.
But in short, once we (and we probably means all of Europe) start to produce enough excess, often enough, then the large scale storage sector will become economical. If governments have the foresight, then they will artificially promote those markets 'too soon' as such an industry would itself help to support further RE expansion and market penetration.
The same can be said for the shorter term battery market. Whilst it is currently not needed, and consumes some RE generation, it will be essential in the future, when it will be net positive for renewables and their impact on the grid - so a government programme in advance of need would be beneficial.
I think it's horrendously complicated, but also incredibly obvious what the direction of travel will be now that so many forms of storage are becoming economical, and that will only get bigger as peak supply period leccy gets cheaper and more common.Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW). Two A2A units for cleaner heating.
For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.0
This discussion has been closed.
Categories
- All Categories
- 343.2K Banking & Borrowing
- 250.1K Reduce Debt & Boost Income
- 449.7K Spending & Discounts
- 235.3K Work, Benefits & Business
- 608.1K Mortgages, Homes & Bills
- 173.1K Life & Family
- 247.9K Travel & Transport
- 1.5M Hobbies & Leisure
- 15.9K Discuss & Feedback
- 15.1K Coronavirus Support Boards