When will fossil fuel useage peak a general discussion

GreatApe

In the short term, by which I mean 15-20 years you'd install hybrid boilers before you do the chemicals dance

Dumping 3KWh into a hybrid dual electric/gas boiler saves 4 units of gas
So you put in 3 units and get out 4 units, now that makes a lot of sense
Unlike the chemicals dance where's you put in 3 units and get 1 unit out

These should be regulated into existence as per my previous thread it solves any excess problems and would allow a much more rapid deployment of wind power

GreatApe

Wind Curtailment solutions

1 Design higher CF wind farms
2 Interconnectors
3 hybrid boilers and tanks
4 short term 1-10 days batteries
5 chemicals dance

#1-3 would solve the bulk of the problem so much so that you would need very little or no #4&5

Plus if aiming for a net zero or even negative world you might have to do biomass CCS so would have this biomass generation when there is no wind or solar or interconntors

zeupater

Martyn1981 wrote: »

If there is real interest in this matter, not just more argument baiting and anti-RE nonsense, then perhaps we should note that this Saturday gas generation got down to 2.6GW with zero coal, and nuclear running below max.

So we could argue that we are nearer to the need for large scale storage to make use of 'waste' RE already.

In reality it's far more complex, and I assume far more complex again than I can think of, but some issues would be:

• Expansion of RE is still on going - so more excess.
• Nuclear capacity whilst below max now, will still fall over the next decade or so as the old plants close - so less excess.
• BEV storage will expand naturally, but still slow, and limited V2G so far - mixed results.
• Supply and demand side battery storage - less excess.
• More interconnectors coming on line - less excess due to export.
• More interconnectors coming on line - more excess if storage full having imported cheap excess.
• Cheaper RE, so overcapacity economically acceptable - more excess.
• Increased demand for leccy (transport and space heating) - less excess.

I'm not trying to reach a time conclusion, and I'm sure the list is vastly greater, I'm simply suggesting it's a very hard question and will be impacted by multiple technologies and cost changes too.

But in short, once we (and we probably means all of Europe) start to produce enough excess, often enough, then the large scale storage sector will become economical. If governments have the foresight, then they will artificially promote those markets 'too soon' as such an industry would itself help to support further RE expansion and market penetration.

The same can be said for the shorter term battery market. Whilst it is currently not needed, and consumes some RE generation, it will be essential in the future, when it will be net positive for renewables and their impact on the grid - so a government programme in advance of need would be beneficial.

I think it's horrendously complicated, but also incredibly obvious what the direction of travel will be now that so many forms of storage are becoming economical, and that will only get bigger as peak supply period leccy gets cheaper and more common.

Hi

What also needs to be considered is that the UK already has LNG/natural gas storage facilities (~1.7billion cubic metres) which are an asset which can be built upon ... (Ofgem link) ... not much & certainly not enough to be considered strategic, but it's there & should be considered as an option in a RE rich scenario ...

HTH
Z

JKenH

I have not seen much mention of pumped hydro. Is our existing capacity fully utilised and is there the potential to add more? While I understand it is very efficient compared to say chemical storage, I would assume the investment needed per plant is quite high. Is that the problem or is it just a lack of suitable sites in the UK?

GreatApe

JKenH wrote: »

I have not seen much mention of pumped hydro. Is our existing capacity fully utilised and is there the potential to add more? While I understand it is very efficient compared to say chemical storage, I would assume the investment needed per plant is quite high. Is that the problem or is it just a lack of suitable sites in the UK?

Norway the lucky country will act as a huge pumped storage facility for Europe

Buying excess UK/German wind for nowt and then selling it back to them for £40-£100 a MWh

Two interconntors of 1.4GW each are being built or about to start from Norway to UK and the same Again Norway to Germany

Norway could build as much as 20GW total to UK/Germany/France etc
It's not a full solution but it helps

Martyn1981

JKenH wrote: »

I have not seen much mention of pumped hydro. Is our existing capacity fully utilised and is there the potential to add more? While I understand it is very efficient compared to say chemical storage, I would assume the investment needed per plant is quite high. Is that the problem or is it just a lack of suitable sites in the UK?

There's a lack of suitable sites in the UK.

But, Norway has about 20GW of as yet unused hydro potential, and most of the existing hydro has no PHS as they simply have ..... so much hydro.

The UK (and/or other countries) could build new interconnectors and pay for, or contribute to the addition of catchment lagoons to the existing hydro facilities, and voila ..... loads of additional European PHS. As per Desertec, basically Norway's contribution to a European/N. Africa RE mix would be to provide the batteries.

LAES might match PHS efficiencies, around 70% if it can make use of waste heat or cold from a nearby business. Technically LAES might exceed 100% if it can get both waste heat and cold, but unlikley.

markin

I came across a video that showed world peak oil production was 2006, And peak natGas happened in 2010, And the video is 2 years old but it showed world Coal peak hitting at 2020, but im guessing that's way off now, so soon as Coal peaks the world is saved. I think China's plan is Coal until 2030.


WIKI

Many coal associations suggest the peak could occur in 200 years or more, while scholarly estimates predict the peak to occur as soon as the immediate future. Research in 2009 by the University of Newcastle in Australia concluded that global coal extraction could peak sometime between the present and 2048.

The out of date Charts here indicate china had peak coal in 2013. https://ourfiniteworld.com/2019/02/22/have-we-already-passed-world-peak-oil-and-world-peak-coal/

markin

Why everything will collapse,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YsA3PK8bQd8

How depressing.

GreatApe

markin wrote: »

Why everything will collapse,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YsA3PK8bQd8

How depressing.

The internet is one big confirmation bias machine

Don't worry everything will be fine

Martyn1981

Good article on coal's decline in Europe. It's long(ish), but almost entirely short reading points, a literal barrage of them.

Is The Coal Collapse Imminent?

Half of coal’s fall was replaced by wind and solar, and half was replaced by switching to fossil gas. If this trend continues for the rest of the year, it will lessen CO2 emissions by 65 million tons compared to last year and shrink EU’s greenhouse gas (GHG) by 1.5%.

Coal generation already had declined 30% from 2012 to 2018.

Let it be said, however, that even if these plunges continue in 2019, coal generation is still likely to account for 12% of the EU’s 2019 GHG emissions.

Titled “The Great Coal Collapse of 2019,” the report has some interesting findings. Here are highlights.

All western European countries saw big percentage falls, from 22% in Germany to 79% in Ireland.

Germany saw by far the biggest coal fall in absolute terms.

The falls in eastern European countries were much smaller due to near-zero deployment of wind and solar.