When will fossil fuel useage peak a general discussion

zeupater

1961Nick wrote: »

The calculator indicated that the range was roughly 2.5 - 5.0. At current energy prices, a COP of about 4.5 would be needed for parity with gas....assuming no solar contribution of course.

Some of those units in the databook were surprisingly efficient at around zero degrees. I wonder if the COP includes the defrost cycles?

Hi

Looking at that conclusion, maybe the calculator needs new batteries? ....

Which model & what ambient temperature range & referenced compressor loading did you use? ... ours would rarely be expected to operate anywhere near as poorly as that range of COPs would convey .... also, do you have experience with using heatpumps & an idea of where in the performance efficiency curve the majority of heat contribution would typically be over a typical UK heating season? ... (?UKAv:~7.5C?)

Anyway, in comparing to current electricity prices you seem to be missing the point as we were considering Co-gen using gas as opposed to grid supply, so let's look at a cost approximation based on your 4.5 multiplier as raised ....

Cost Energy
Gas = X
Electricity =4.5X

Cost per unit Heat
Gas (85%) =1.18X
Elec (100%) = 4.5X

Co-gen Heat (basis - 85% eff / 50%:50% heat electricity)
Heat delivered per unit gas
Gas (0.85/2) = 0.42
Elec ((0.85/2)*4.5) = 1.89
Total (0.42+1.89) = 2.31

Cost per unit Heat (1/2.31) = 0.43X

Conclusion ...
In principle, using gas powered CHP plus a heatpump in a domestic environment (without solar PV) and applying reasonable performance expectations as above, a household could, in theory, more than halve their current gas consumption if the two technologies were controlled by a suitable management system...

.... however, when heating demand isn't maximised to the CHP potential generation, the Co-gen heat can be diverted to DHW allowing local generation to reduce grid load, effectively removing much of the need for infrastructure reinforcement to cope with the electrification of heating, therefore lowering losses in electricity transmission ...

A COP of 4.5 just for energy cost parity?? ... no, in terms of a solution involving Co-gen, the heat-pump wouldn't need to be anywhere near that efficient .... fortunately though, many heatpumps can better 4.5 by some margin for the majority of the heat provision season.

Crucially, this potential for more than halving of demand for gas in domestic heating also reduces the demand for provision of gas from renewable sources, alleviating more than half of the headaches linked to capacity provision ... and in all that we've not even touched on further benefits provided by introducing PV and/or battery storage into the solution, further reducing demand & improving viability ...

HTH
Z

GreatApe

GreatApe wrote: »

How long do you think those building regs will last when people start dieing of cold because they can't afford a £5-15k heat pump system fitting? Or can't afford to pay 15p a unit for electricity rather than 3p a unit for gas in a resistance heated system?

How long will a gas ban reversal take when our remaining manufacturing is crippled having to pay 10p electricity for high temp processing rather than 2p for NAT gas?

What happens to the 5 million or so social homes which might need £50 billion spending to install the heat pumps? Who's Gona cough that up. Tooth fairy?

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Yep, and the ban comes in, in 2025, and I assume sometime soon we'll here about a ban for replacement GCH boilers, but I'm sure that will have some flexibility in it, and be far(?) off, maybe 2035+.

Using cheap rate leccy the heat pump will beat gas on a kWh(t) price (perhaps 2p/kWh(t)) even before including the externalities of FF's.

The cost of heating must also take into account the capital cost and the cost of interest

If a boiler needs £75 a year inspection and maintenance and lasts 15 years and costs £1,500 for a new one. That comes to a cost of £195 per year plus the cost of your gas

If a heat pump costs £100 a year inspection and maintenance and lasts 20 years and costs £10,000 to install first time around that costs £760 per year plus the cost of electricity

As you can see the annual capital cost is very significant. About £200 Vs £800

Heat pumps are very old technology if they were better than NAT gas we would have installed heat pumps 50 years ago and not bothered with gas fired heating.

GreatApe

Martyn1981 wrote: »

But, if a suitable carbon price is added to the FF gas, or bio-gas (costing a bit more) is used, the numbers should add up better. Also with better insulation (using the rule - first insulate, insulate, insulate) the heating part of our bills should reduce.

The capital cost of heating systems can be thought of as

Direct electric. Very low capital cost (resistance heater) and low cost tanks with DIY element changes. Very easy to install any idiot can do it. Very easy to get right. Expensive electricity circa 15p a unit

Gas Boilers. Much higher capital cost and maintenance but gas at only 3p a unit. More difficult to install but still forgiving

Heat pumps. The highest capital cost by some margin needs more skills tradesmen to get everything right. Runs off 15p electricity but gets 3-4 COP resulting in 4-5p a unit of heat


Of all three gas boilers are the best solution hence why they have 85% market share

In small demand properties direct electric heating is the most efficient hence they have a significant share of heating second only to just gas

Heat pumps are the most difficult to do and the most expensive to install and arguably to run hence they have the least market share

1961Nick

zeupater wrote: »

Hi

Looking at that conclusion, maybe the calculator needs new batteries? ....

Which model & what ambient temperature range & referenced compressor loading did you use? ... ours would rarely be expected to operate anywhere near as poorly as that range of COPs would convey .... also, do you have experience with using heatpumps & an idea of where in the performance efficiency curve the majority of heat contribution would typically be over a typical UK heating season? ... (?UKAv:~7.5C?)

Anyway, in comparing to current electricity prices you seem to be missing the point as we were considering Co-gen using gas as opposed to grid supply, so let's look at a cost approximation based on your 4.5 multiplier as raised ....

Cost Energy
Gas = X
Electricity =4.5X

Cost per unit Heat
Gas (85%) =1.18X
Elec (100%) = 4.5X

Co-gen Heat (basis - 85% eff / 50%:50% heat electricity)
Heat delivered per unit gas
Gas (0.85/2) = 0.42
Elec ((0.85/2)*4.5) = 1.89
Total (0.42+1.89) = 2.31

Cost per unit Heat (1/2.31) = 0.43X

Conclusion ...
In principle, using gas powered CHP plus a heatpump in a domestic environment (without solar PV) and applying reasonable performance expectations as above, a household could, in theory, more than halve their current gas consumption if the two technologies were controlled by a suitable management system...

.... however, when heating demand isn't maximised to the CHP potential generation, the Co-gen heat can be diverted to DHW allowing local generation to reduce grid load, effectively removing much of the need for infrastructure reinforcement to cope with the electrification of heating, therefore lowering losses in electricity transmission ...

A COP of 4.5 just for energy cost parity?? ... no, in terms of a solution involving Co-gen, the heat-pump wouldn't need to be anywhere near that efficient .... fortunately though, many heatpumps can better 4.5 by some margin for the majority of the heat provision season.

Crucially, this potential for more than halving of demand for gas in domestic heating also reduces the demand for provision of gas from renewable sources, alleviating more than half of the headaches linked to capacity provision ... and in all that we've not even touched on further benefits provided by introducing PV and/or battery storage into the solution, further reducing demand & improving viability ...

HTH
Z

Can you elaborate where the co-gen heat source is? Are we talking about district heating supplemented by a heat pump?

GreatApe

1961Nick wrote: »

The calculator indicated that the range was roughly 2.5 - 5.0. At current energy prices, a COP of about 4.5 would be needed for parity with gas....assuming no solar contribution of course.

Some of those units in the databook were surprisingly efficient at around zero degrees. I wonder if the COP includes the defrost cycles?

I suspect those COP figures are not realistic in the same way car mpg form the manufacturer are still not realistic for normal people driving normally

Any reports showing a large number of installs and the real life COP would be more useful

GreatApe

1961Nick wrote: »

Can you elaborate where the co-gen heat source is? Are we talking about district heating supplemented by a heat pump?

An already expensive heat pump system and you put in a fuel cells or a jet engine on top....


More realistic is roughly

1/3rd of homes resistance heated
1/3rd of homes heat pumps
1/3rd of homes hybrid boilers

Resistance heaters are really cheap to install and maintain and will last 100 years
The smaller properties often the flats will be resistance heated

Heat pumps might make sense for large properties where the cost of the heat pump is spread among many more units.

Hybrid boilers make sense right now
More or less a plug and play options
2 million or so gas boilers replaced yearly
Add a 3-11KW electric heater onto them additional cost is negligible
Whenever the boiler fires up it asks the grid should I use gas or electric
If there is no excess wind the grid says use gas
If there is excess wind the grid says use electricity

The very same boiler over time becomes more and more green as the nation installs more and more offshore wind power these boilers more and more often run off electricity and less and less often on gas

Regulate into existence a 5p electricity tariff for hybrid boiler heating (only when there is excess renewables that would be curtailed otherwise) and bobs your uncle. The most realistic short medium and long term solution to heating

No need to rip up pipes and radiators and buy an expensive heat pump

zeupater

1961Nick wrote: »

Can you elaborate where the co-gen heat source is? Are we talking about district heating supplemented by a heat pump?

Hi

Could be either really, depending on application, but when we're talking about the peaking & replacement of !!!!!! (gas in this instance) then the likely candidate for the majority of currently gas heated properties would be along the lines of a domestic CHP fuel cell system without a large standard gas boiler bolted to the side with a management system designed to balance generation to either heatpump or local battery demand! .... technology would likely suit the low cost SS cell stacks developed by Ceres Power.

HTH
Z

ABrass

All the sums showing how great a deal gas is miss the point that we can't use gas forever.

All the sums looking at how great CHP is miss the point that with decent levels of insulation you don't need that much heat.

Also CHP has been bored to death in other threads. Can we avoid repeating it ad nausem?

1961Nick

GreatApe wrote: »

Regulate into existence a 5p electricity tariff for hybrid boiler heating (only when there is excess renewables that would be curtailed otherwise) and bobs your uncle. The most realistic short medium and long term solution to heating

No need to rip up pipes and radiators and buy an expensive heat pump

No need to regulate....the Octopus agile tariff already does this. All that would be required is a realistically priced hybrid boiler that's smart enough to take advantage of the lowest electricity prices.

Hexane

ABrass wrote: »

All the sums showing how great a deal gas is miss the point that we can't use gas forever.

Very true, in fact we can't really use it for very much longer at all...

ABrass wrote: »

All the sums looking at how great CHP is miss the point that with decent levels of insulation you don't need that much heat.

Just out of interest, what qualifies as "decent"? The detached house I currently live in has government specified "standard" levels of wall and roof insulation supposedly fitted by the previous owners as required by regulation at the time (they were adding an extension), plus high standard double glazing throughout, plus TRVs on all relevant radiators as fitted by me, but still it seems to need quite a lot of heat...?

1961Nick wrote: »

No need to regulate....the Octopus agile tariff already does this. All that would be required is a realistically priced hybrid boiler that's smart enough to take advantage of the lowest electricity prices.

... and some sort of hearts and minds campaign similar to whatever it was that was done to people's minds such that every single gas plumber you talk to, only wants to fit a combi boiler, and tells you to get rid of your hot water cylinder because "all that's old hat", and homebuyers constantly say "well the first thing I'd do is to fit a modern combi boiler and get rid of this old one". Whoever did the publicity for all this, they seem to have been quite good at it.