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stockmarkets -are we nearing the bottom or is there further to go ??
Comments
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Br, you are physics as well? interesting. I am physics too and a bro in law was astrophysics then started a hedge fund. Hedge fund groups are full of physicists turned traders. They are very secretive btw. Re financial advisors, we turned tail when one recommended hedge funds for the pension.
Among those I worked alongside while doing research, four left to work in merchant banks, of these one is now a senior manager, one is now a partner in a hedge fund, and I lost track of the other two. I was not a 'bread head' at that time, and did not follow them, which might have been a mistake. As you say a lot of physicists do become traders of one form or another, as the analytical skills are valuable. But it does draw the brightest away from industry into the 'non productive' sector, as some would have it. Yes I would not have a hedge fund in a pension.0 -
Only assuming they make the right call. Day trading is a zero-sum game except for the intermediaries who make money whatever happens.
Reminds me of an old Stanley Baker joke about a gambler who backed horses using a scientific analysis system, but then saying, problem is that they aren't running scientifically.Chuck Norris can kill two stones with one birdThe only time Chuck Norris was wrong was when he thought he had made a mistakeChuck Norris puts the "laughter" in "manslaughter".I've started running again, after several injuries had forced me to stop0 -
BananaRepublic wrote: »The value/price of a share has no relevance to trading shares? I beg to disagree.
No, however the ability to appreciate context is important to contributing to mature discussion...
Creating obvious straw-men arguments when you can't come up with a credible response to the actual point is an obvious and puerile ploy and it'll win you no credit here.Having a signature removed for mentioning the removal of a previous signature. Blackwhite bellyfeel double plus good...0 -
Glen_Clark wrote: »But that still doesn't make us a Republic does it?
It doesn't make us many things, but then I never claimed it did. I just pointed out that you were making false statements. As it happens, I don't approve of unelected individuals having influence over political matters.Having a signature removed for mentioning the removal of a previous signature. Blackwhite bellyfeel double plus good...0 -
A nice little site this with some live charts of indices and stocks which can be set in various time frames.
Might be of use to some posters....all the best.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/stock-market0 -
No, however the ability to appreciate context is important to contributing to mature discussion...
Creating obvious straw-men arguments when you can't come up with a credible response to the actual point is an obvious and puerile ploy and it'll win you no credit here.
That was a rather puerile comment which added no value.0 -
A nice little site this with some live charts of indices and stocks which can be set in various time frames.
Might be of use to some posters....all the best.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/stock-market
Interesting, and the Nikkei plot from 1991 explains to some here why I am cautious about the Japanese markets.
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BananaRepublic wrote: »Interesting, and the Nikkei plot from 1991 explains to some here why I am cautious about the Japanese markets.
Of course, the nikkei has an "unusual" construction compared to the FTSE or S&P500 or Europe equivalent (it's built more like the Dow), and the chart is priced in Yen with no reference to deflation or exchange rates compared to other countries so is difficult to appreciate on a standalone basis.
International investors certainly didn't enjoy the 'lost decade' or two from Japan which is part of why people look at Japan and Asiapac ex-Japan as distinct markets rather than one big continent. Like some other countries Japan has its problems with demographics but it is a pretty big player in the world economy and there are some good big businesses there priced much more cheaply than (say) the US, without it being a basket case of corruption and rich/poor divide and overdependence on certain resources like for example Russia.
I think it's naive to avoid Japan just because you feel you "understand" the UK and US more - anywhere in the world can still give you a shock so a fear of the 1990s Nikkei is probably overblown.0 -
bowlhead99 wrote: »Of course, the nikkei has an "unusual" construction compared to the FTSE or S&P500 or Europe equivalent (it's built more like the Dow), and the chart is priced in Yen with no reference to deflation or exchange rates compared to other countries so is difficult to appreciate on a standalone basis.
International investors certainly didn't enjoy the 'lost decade' or two from Japan which is part of why people look at Japan and Asiapac ex-Japan as distinct markets rather than one big continent. Like some other countries Japan has its problems with demographics but it is a pretty big player in the world economy and there are some good big businesses there priced much more cheaply than (say) the US, without it being a basket case of corruption and rich/poor divide and overdependence on certain resources like for example Russia.
I think it's naive to avoid Japan just because you feel you "understand" the UK and US more - anywhere in the world can still give you a shock so a fear of the 1990s Nikkei is probably overblown.
I know from experience that even if you factor in exchange rates, and dividends, returns from Japan have mostly been poor, although recent years have seen a marked improvement.
Whilst you have made some good points, I disagree with your final conclusion. The Japanese market has had numerous false dawns since I bought in 15 or more years ago. And I am still invested. Japan has had numerous problems associated with its corporate culture, and originally huge debt from the big boom and bust. Certainly I doubt we will see a boom and bust on that scale in the near future, but they are and have been struggling with reform for quite some time.
Japan and China are of course different in that Japan can be said to have developed, whereby made in Japan means quality. Even Japanese companies - such as Seiko and Nikon - make the premium product lines in Japan. Japan also has a stable democratic government. China on the otherhand is still seeing massive industrialisation, a migration from the countryside to the towns on a scale not seen before, and it has a one party government. You are no doubt aware of the huge debt built up in China, the government deliberately stimulating growth, at the risk of creating a massive crash, and they are trying to reduce the debt gradually, and avoid a Western style belly up event.
And you did not mention that these markets are highly volatile, which in some circles is a measure of risk.
As I think I've said before, good luck to those who leap in, but I'd rather not be called naive if it is all the same to you.0
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