House prices 'unchanged in May'

Ian_Griffiths_Halifax

This is a press release in one of our trade publications.

House prices remain flat in May


Average house prices in England and Wales remained flat in May, showing no monthly change at £183,266, according to the latest figures from Land Registry.

Annual house price growth declined for the ninth consecutive month, with a change of 1.8%.

The most recent figures available also revealed that during March the number of completed house sales fell by 50% to 53,080 from 106,047 in March 2007.
Monthly house price growth in London currently stands at 0.8%, and the average house price at £354,714. The North East experienced the most significant monthly price fall with a movement of -2.4%. Commenting Ross Bowen, managing director of Connells Survey & Valuation, said: "For the housing market to function normally, tinkering with base rates is irrelevant. The Bank of England must target more liquidity at the money markets to get them moving again."

tradetime

sympatex wrote: »

NDG, i was just looking at prices in May (perhaps i should have looked in March) at a street local to me with identical houses and comparing to today's asking prices (some have sold and we lost out on one as we offered 7.5% less than asking price). I fully agree every indicator is pointing down but it hasn't caught on here yet it seems! Frustrating!

I'm not really sure why it would be "frustrating" it simply requires a little patience, we are probably embarking on about 5 years of falling prices.

Ian_Griffiths_Halifax

tradetime wrote: »

I'm not really sure why it would be "frustrating" it simply requires a little patience, we are probably embarking on about 5 years of falling prices.

The public have short memories and buyers will be back in the market in around 6/8 months I recon. Sooner if lenders start lending again.

tradetime

Ian_Griffiths_Halifax wrote: »

The public have short memories and buyers will be back in the market in around 6/8 months I recon. Sooner if lenders start lending again.

I admire your optimism, I think, but for any meaningful lending to take place, certainly at a level that would have sufficiant impact to stop house prices falling we would have to be exiting the "credit crunch" I do not believe we are near that point yet, we need to see a lot of consolidation in the banking industry. We also likely have the little matter of a recession to get out of the way before that happens.

sympatex

Tradetime, for me its been frustrating because i've been saving for moving out during the 'good times' (3years) and get into a position with deposit, life and desire. Just in time for the peak to be reached and about to slide off into the 'bad times' (for home owners). So now having to wait perhaps 6months, perhaps 12, perhaps 5years?! I'm definitely sitting out for 6months but after that be keeping a beedy eye on an opporutnity to afford a house that i can stay in for along time so that if things continue to get worse at least i can hide!

Ian_Griffiths_Halifax

We aren't in a recession, but if the banks don't start lending again soon, I dread to think of the state of the country in a couple of years time._pale_

If they start lending and House Builders price properties at realistic prices, then they'll be able to start selling again.

The number of House Builders stopping building on new sites is increasing and I dread to think of all the brickies and labourers etc who are going to be out of work.

adr0ck

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1aa3ad90-43aa-11dd-842e-0000779fd2ac.html

green shoots

tradetime

i've been saving for moving out during the 'good times' (3years)

Not sure if this means you have a property already, or perhaps you are renting, I assume from deposit talk you are renting. You are in an ideal position and patience will only reward you at this point, you can continue to add to your deposit and watch prices fall, all the while your deposit will be growing in size, not only by your added savings but also as a % against the falling prices of the property type you are interested in. This will lead to you getting a better choice of the best mortgage rates available whent you do buy.

MrDT

sympatex wrote: »

Tradetime, for me its been frustrating because i've been saving for moving out during the 'good times' (3years) and get into a position with deposit, life and desire. Just in time for the peak to be reached and about to slide off into the 'bad times' (for home owners). So now having to wait perhaps 6months, perhaps 12, perhaps 5years?! I'm definitely sitting out for 6months but after that be keeping a beedy eye on an opporutnity to afford a house that i can stay in for along time so that if things continue to get worse at least i can hide!

Frustrated > terrified

How do you think you'd feel if you'd bought 12 months ago at the top of the bubble?

Personally I think you're lucky

You don't HAVE to sit it out for years if you're that frustrated, if you were prepared to buy at peak surely you could buy now? I don't get it

tradetime

Ian_Griffiths_Halifax wrote: »

We aren't in a recession, but if the banks don't start lending again soon, I dread to think of the state of the country in a couple of years time._pale_

No we aren't in a recession yet, but you'd be brave to bet against it.

You want the banks to ramp up lending to stabalise the property market, the problem with this is the banks on the main are still quite exposed to the US property market by means of structured investments, given that these are a jumble of good and bad loans, no-one knows which ones will go bad and which won't. Subsequently the banks need to hoard capital against the prospect of further writedowns, thus until there is some stabalisation in the US property markets I doubt the banks will significantly increase their lending, particularly into another property market that is on the slide, with expectations of writedowns here. Quite frankly given how substantially weakened the banks are from their forrays into the US property market, it's difficult to see them wanting to add anymore fuel to the fire here until it's under control.

Ian_Griffiths_Halifax wrote: »

The number of House Builders stopping building on new sites is increasing and I dread to think of all the brickies and labourers etc who are going to be out of work.

I suspect they'll have a lot of company soon enough.