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House prices 'unchanged in May'
Comments
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We have this tedious discussion every month when the LR figures are released.
Firstly, the LR figures are compiled some time after completion, so reflect market activity in December at least, as the time taken to log transactions can vary greatly.
Secondly, after a recent change of methodology, the LR now compares individual properties against their most recent resale price. This is accurate over the long run, but I would expect this to be quite slow to show a turning market.
Indicators with a long lag (LR) are showing stagnation. Indicators with a medium lag (Halliwide) are showing falls, and indicators with short lags (mortgage approvals) are in meltdown.
That is my view as someone who has worked in various government stats divisions for over 5 years.Politics is not the art of the possible. It consists of choosing between the disastrous and the unpalatable. J. K. Galbraith0 -
NDG, i was just looking at prices in May (perhaps i should have looked in March) at a street local to me with identical houses and comparing to today's asking prices (some have sold and we lost out on one as we offered 7.5% less than asking price). I fully agree every indicator is pointing down but it hasn't caught on here yet it seems! Frustrating!
And you don't think people are putting their properties on the market at silly prices so they can offer large discounts later on, accept low offers etc? It's a game...0 -
Looking at the figures, month on month:
Nationwide:
June +1.1% http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6247992.stm
July + 0.5%
August +0.6%
Sept + 0.7% http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7015599.stm
Oct +1.1%
Nov - 0.8% http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7162488.stm
Dec - 0.5% http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7162488.stm
Jan -0.1% http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7219178.stm
Feb - 0.5% http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7269894.stm
March -0.6% http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7317303.stm
April
May -2.5% http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7424309.stm
Land Registry:
Sept +2%
Oct + 0.5%
Nov + 0.3%
Dec +0.1%
Jan - 0.4 % http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7214777.stm
Feb +0.9% http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7269025.stm
March 0% http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7324006.stm
April - 0.4% http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7370727.stm
May .- 0.2 % http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7427335.stm
I think that does show the lag (which is obvious from the way the data are collected, anyway)...much enquiry having been made concerning a gentleman, who had quitted a company where Johnson was, and no information being obtained; at last Johnson observed, that 'he did not care to speak ill of any man behind his back, but he believed the gentleman was an attorney'.0 -
Sir_Humphrey wrote: »We have this tedious discussion every month when the LR figures are released.
Firstly, the LR figures are compiled some time after completion, so reflect market activity in December at least, as the time taken to log transactions can vary greatly.
Secondly, after a recent change of methodology, the LR now compares individual properties against their most recent resale price. This is accurate over the long run, but I would expect this to be quite slow to show a turning market.
Indicators with a long lag (LR) are showing stagnation. Indicators with a medium lag (Halliwide) are showing falls, and indicators with short lags (mortgage approvals) are in meltdown.
That is my view as someone who has worked in various government stats divisions for over 5 years.
It says May on that link, a misprint then?0 -
I don't think anyone is saying that. The choice is accuracy over timeliness. The more accurate the figure, the longer the delay. The more uptodate they are, the less accurate they are.Its strange that when the market is going strong, the only figures that should be taken seriously are the LR and Halifax/Nationwide etc should be igonred at all costsAfter the uprising of the 17th June The Secretary of the Writers Union
Had leaflets distributed in the Stalinallee Stating that the people
Had forfeited the confidence of the government And could win it back only
By redoubled efforts. Would it not be easier In that case for the government
To dissolve the people
And elect another?0 -
Not a misprint - look more carefully at teh article.
It's talking about sales which were completed in March. So probably agreed in December....much enquiry having been made concerning a gentleman, who had quitted a company where Johnson was, and no information being obtained; at last Johnson observed, that 'he did not care to speak ill of any man behind his back, but he believed the gentleman was an attorney'.0 -
NDG i'm not arguing or trying to champion any particular cause infact i probably ought to just stop typing! I know i will not be able to buy a house today at the same price an identical house sold for in March 2007 (1%more today). At the moment it seems just unrealistic askign prices are being wiped off which is a great start.0
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neverdespairgirl wrote: »Not a misprint - look more carefully at teh article.
It's talking about sales which were completed in March. So probably agreed in December.
I did the first sentance says "unchanged in May" The rest of the article refers to December - March, maybe they meant "unchanged in March" then?0 -
Do you use Property Bee? It's great, if you haven't tried it, do!...much enquiry having been made concerning a gentleman, who had quitted a company where Johnson was, and no information being obtained; at last Johnson observed, that 'he did not care to speak ill of any man behind his back, but he believed the gentleman was an attorney'.0
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