Time to retreat to cash?

grebbo

gfplux wrote: »

Hello Conrad,
Have you managed 6.5% growth on your investments in the last 12 months. As I said I am down 9.4%. I am a cautious and normally buy to hold.
What was your approach to manage over 6.5% in the last 12 months.

I'm not Conrad but you quoted me so I'll answer you..

Yes I have managed more than 6.5% growth in the last 12 months. I'm averaging about 30% but I'm in an industry where I've got access to some good opportunities...

With low risk I can get 14% p.a but my idea of low risk and other peoples idea of low risk is probably totally different

oni_2

[HTML]I'm averaging about 30%[/HTML]

i believe you!

grebbo

oni wrote: »

[html]I'm averaging about 30%[/html]

i believe you!

ha..we're only in June, ask me again in December :eek:

hedger

I am in a real dilemna now - do I retreat to cash (in to an Irish bank that is fully guaranteed) and lose around £15,000 or sit tight and wait for a possible rebound IF some sort of rescue deal can create some confidence?

IFA has advised GILTS? TBH I dont even know what they are

LongTermLurker

Gilts are UK Government bonds, or IOUs - so long as the Govt doesn't go bust, the coupon value (ie the value of the original bond) will be repaid.

You have probably bought into a gilt fund, rather than the actual gilts, which means the fund price can rise and fall with demand. So although gilts are the lowest risk of investment, they nevertheless carry some risk.

Why would you lose £15000? Are you saying your gilts have dropped that much?? What percentage is that?

convict90210

martinman3 wrote: »

This is one of my all-time favourite threads which proves that you should never invest without knowing the reason why the investment is cheap.;)
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=553760

I wonder how convict90210 feels now.

Yeah...I lost a few quid on that one!! Still I am pleased to say have made a few better decisions since!!

black_taxi_2

heard buffett publisher on cnbc--new book--snowball

she said

never catch a falling knife

buy when others are fearful


easier said than done

GeorgeHowell

Time to retreat to cash ?

If it's new money being invested, then yes -- unless it really is surplus go requirements and its placement can be treated as a gamble.

If it's money already invested, then probably no -- in most cases best to hang on and hope that things recover, rather than realise a loss now.

I see comments above to the effect that cash might only just about cover inflation, implying that other forms of investment, especially equities, do better. If you are clever and lucky enough to get in and out at the right times then they certainly can be inflation-beating. But who is clever and lucky enough to do that consistently ? I suspect that anyone who can do so is in the Bahamas rather than working for a living.

Many IFA's and other professionals are still recommending equities, and other investments where capital can be lost, as the best 'long-term' bet, whatever long term means. But are they the best bet ? Certainly UK equities have never surpassed their 1999 peak, and are currently well below it. Inflation-busting ? I don't think so.

The mandatory caveat with investment sales is "Past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future trends.", and yet the familiar sales pitch still hinges on that very assumption.

For a sizeable portfolio it arguably does no harm to put a piece of it into equities because it can probably be risked without serious jeopardy to standard of living. But people with limited means should think very long and hard about whether they want to risk any of their capital, let alone a large proportion of it. And they certainly should not take such decisions purely on the basis of professional advice, when it is obvious that the financial advice indusrty has a vested interesed in their customer base entering into investments other than cash.

It's a new century now, a new millennium in fact, and the world is changing. As with property, the perception that equity based investments will beat all other forms over time, just because they did so in the 20th century, may no longer hold true.

Better safe than sorry -- best to wait and see I think.

StevieJ

hedger wrote: »

The big question for a lot of investors. Sure we are all told investing is long term but with every man and his dog predicting carnage for the next few years is it time to get out and into cash (even to re-buy at much lower prices)

Yeh go on, you just know what will happen.

gozomark

GeorgeHowell wrote: »

Time to retreat to cash ?

If it's new money being invested, then yes -- unless it really is surplus go requirements and its placement can be treated as a gamble.

If it's money already invested, then probably no -- in most cases best to hang on and hope that things recover, rather than realise a loss now.
.

sorry, but thats nonsensical - its either right or it isn't