Base Rates - Where to by the end of the year ?

free4440273

^maybe Gordon believes in (UK) decoupling :rolleyes:

earlgrey_3

skoolmaster wrote: »

Greedy b******ds at the banks sucking us dry, structured finance and shyster private equity asset strippers ...

Many would agree that many of today's problems derive from insufficient regulation. (The work of Lawson and Howell of course.)

Somehow I just can't see the tighter financial regulation needed coming from a cabinet where 80% are Eton old-boys like Cameron.

We need a tough government not afraid to offend those who bankroll their parties and we won't get that from either side.

speedbird1973

interestingly enough Mervyn King is anticipating one fall in interest rates this year, albeit late on.

I'm inclined to agree with him (not just because he's the boss!). Raising interest rates will only squeeze the parts of the equation that aren't really inflationary anyway. Food an Oil are a global issue, interest rates won't impact on them.

I also don't think the B of E is really all that independant. Pre election interest rates will be discouraged from increasing.

in my opinion of course.

earlgrey_3

speedbird1973 wrote: »

Raising interest rates will only squeeze the parts of the equation that aren't really inflationary anyway. Food an Oil are a global issue, interest rates won't impact on them.

Lowering interest rates encourages the pound to fall due to being less attractive. A lower pound increases the cost of all imported goods.

tradetime

I'm inclined to agree with him (not just because he's the boss!). Raising interest rates will only squeeze the parts of the equation that aren't really inflationary anyway. Food an Oil are a global issue, interest rates won't impact on them.

I also don't think the B of E is really all that independant. Pre election interest rates will be discouraged from increasing.

Can understand that, and in isolation it is somewhat correct, except when considering it in conjunction with this point....

Lowering interest rates encourages the pound to fall due to being less attractive. A lower pound increases the cost of all imported goods.

The ECB is much more focused on the task of fighting inflation, and is likely to move within the next two meetings, quite possibly as early as next month. The Fed has also signaled that it's easing cycle is at an end, (not at all sure they can actually afford to raise) and with the pound not really displaying the sort of strength against the dollar that it should during US aggressive cuts, I think BOE's hands are slightly tied, a weak pound will accelerate inflation in the UK

KeithEssex_2

Why an interest-rate hike would mean a recession

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/48772/why-an-interest-rate-hike-would-mean-a-recession.html

free4440273

'Can't raise, Won't raise' :rotfl:

planemad

Look like with today's inflation news that rates will stay at 5% for the rest of the year.