Base Rates - Where to by the end of the year ?

free4440273

staying at 5 per cent - perhaps even a cut of .25 as the economy goes into a tailspin, as I think it will:whistle:

ManAtHome

free4440273 wrote: »

staying at 5 per cent - perhaps even a cut of .25 as the economy goes into a tailspin, as I think it will:whistle:

I think it will as well, but not sure how an interest rate cut helps - you're as aware as I am of current savings rates, and how they've moved since December (and lending rates haven't moved in the opposite direction). Also plenty of news about how input costs (the stuff we import to process stuff and flog or export it) have risen, probably half of it due to devaluation. Seems to me like we have a choice of clockwise or anti-clockwise tailspin...

free4440273

^Oh absolutely: I don't expect a .25 rate cut to help AT ALL in these circumstances: look across the pond, and see what the Bond market is doing:shocked: Mortgage rates are going UP significantly. Goodbye (USA) housing...:shocked:

janice1975

The same I would say

skoolmaster

BoE cowards will probably stay at 5% ... but we need a rise to stop inflation bursting any hope of recovery

if you drive, eat or want to travel you're paying for some major incompetence and greed ...

Government failure to have any real rudder on the economy since August last year ...

Greedy b******ds at the banks sucking us dry, structured finance and shyster private equity asset strippers ...

Meanwhile if you've just bought an annuity or you've recently sold property you're in clover ....

Time for someone like Sugar or a serious player to take the gloves off ... get his !!! sued off and tell it how it is ... fire a few bank chiefs ... pull the city big wigs round a table ... hire some real talent ... get some industrial wheels turning and cut some big deals ... kick out the shyster private equiteers and start driving our economy back into productivity ....

Brown nice try as a Chancellor - hopeless PM ... time to push off
Bush cheers for the cheap oil ... but time to push off
Predident Obama ... (buy a bullet proof vest and keeping ducking) invade somewhere with oil or pick a trade scrap with the Chinese ... the US economy needs turning over big style and soon ... he's the man who'll save the day ... (or Bruce Willis wearing a vest and in dire peril)

ManAtHome

skoolmaster wrote: »

Brown nice try as a Chancellor

Agree apart from that bit - we'd be in the same crap if we'd randomly selected a 5 year old to run the eCon...

Borrow heaps of cash from granny to buy loads of sweeties for the Big Boys, cut a deal with the swetie shop to pay a tenner over the next 30 years for each penny chew (as long as the receipts are hidden down the back of the settee), then blame the sugar-cane suppliers when the sweetie shop stops playing ball...

tradetime

Yes, afterall he was the mastermind who sold 400 tons odd (more than half) of UK Plc Gold reserves between 1999 - 2002 at the bottom of the market. I think Brown was pretty good with the smoke and mirrors as chancellor as he was less under the microscope, since Blair was a bigger target. Now he's center stage it's harder to hide. I think if he was that good as a chencellor we be well in surplus from the last decade of boom with a nice solid shelter for the gathering storm, sadly I don't even think we qualify as having a strw house for that.

tradetime

KeithEssex wrote: »

It's amazing how sentiment has changed so dramatically over the last 5-6 weeks. Not one person is now predicting a cut in base rates.

That's not uncommon if you watch interest rate futures, sentiment can change dramatically from before a speach by the Govenor to after it.

KeithEssex wrote: »

So when do people think that they will move next ?

MPC Decision Dates for 2008
9 & 10 July
6 & 7 August
3 & 4 September
8 & 9 October
5 & 6 November
3 & 4 December

As I said earlier. I'm looking for 1 possibly 2 hikes this year, the first most likely at the August or September meeting, due in part to the fact that the ECB will likely raise one meeting ahead of us.

KeithEssex_2

tradetime wrote: »

That's not uncommon if you watch interest rate futures, sentiment can change dramatically from before a speach by the Govenor to after it.


As I said earlier. I'm looking for 1 possibly 2 hikes this year, the first most likely at the August or September meeting, due in part to the fact that the ECB will likely raise one meeting ahead of us.

I think that they will act early - July and maybe again in October because they won't want to be doing this later in the year and risk a winter of discontent ...

This government is on the way out though - whatever they do now !

tradetime

This government is on the way out though - whatever they do now !

Yes I'd imagine it would be hard to turn things around at this stage, the government just seems to stumble from on disaster to another.