Graph !!!!!! 2 - The next Generation

BettiePage

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7457886.stm

amcluesent

The money supply data from the US, Britain, and now Europe, has begun to flash warning signals of a potential crunch. Monetarists are increasingly worried that the entire economic system of the North Atlantic could tip into debt deflation over the next two years if the authorities misjudge the risk.

Roger Bootle from Capital Economics said Britain could be facing a "real economic crisis and a financial collapse. The MPC does not have the luxury of waiting until all is absolutely crystal clear. By that time the bird will have flown."

amcluesent

>That graph is the single most important one.<

Assuming a reversion to trend (with overshoot on the way down), a hedge using spread-bets would still seem to be sensible! last time I checked, the spread was around a 30% drop, could be a lot more...

sdooley

A perverse manor.

Is that a House of pain...?

[gets coat]

Mary_Hartnell

ginvzt wrote: »

Has anyone wondered or could explain why Nationwide average house price is much lower than Halifax? Surely they are working the date from the same market? Yet, the max average house price from Nationwide is October 2007 at £186,044 and Halifax is August 2007 at £199,770...

Forgive me, I did maths as my degree (well, all three of them...)

I always get the impression that Nationwide appeals to a more down market clientèle than Halifax, or perhaps posher mortgage brokers/ Estate Agents/ Solicitors go for Halifax?

m00m00

there's also a regional bias

ginandtonic1988

All this talk of property !!!!!!, well heres some furniture !!!!!! to go with it!

www.furnitureporn.com

michaels

So for all those of you who love that rate of change graph I'm sure you will be head over heals with this one:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/7513563.stm

Whats that - doesn't support your arguement so it needs to be ignored for that nice rate of change graph that looks so serrious? Just goes to show how much doing an STR even 12 months ago would have cost you in forgone capital appreciation

m00m00

that report is very lagged, and selective

no distressed sales, and a 3-6 month lag.


the only indicator worth keeping a serious eye on at the moment, is mortgage approvals.

Paul_N_4

From the article:

"It was roundly ignored last week in favour of more gloomy surveys"

No it was roundly ignored because it's a mickey mouse survey carried out by that 'trustworthy' government, consisting of little up-to-date, and limited scale house price data.

You seem to ignore the mortgage approval rate, which is the biggest influence on house prices. Less approvals, less buyers. Simple.