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Debate House Prices
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Graph !!!!!! 2 - The next Generation
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It's very geometric here in Bloomsbury - people live in squares, write in circles, and love in triangles........much enquiry having been made concerning a gentleman, who had quitted a company where Johnson was, and no information being obtained; at last Johnson observed, that 'he did not care to speak ill of any man behind his back, but he believed the gentleman was an attorney'.0
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Here is this dirty, dirty bit of graph !!!!!!. Enjoy but not too much.:exclamatiScams - Shared Equity, Shared Ownership, Newbuy, Firstbuy and Help to Buy.
Save our Savers
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Straight for the money shot again; no build-up, no soft lighting, not a pastel colours in sight. Will you never learn?0
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Straight for the money shot again; no build-up, no soft lighting, not a pastel colours in sight. Will you never learn?
Sorry I will give you a full peep show in 3 weeks. Slow and modest at first but gaining in confidence till wham everything is exposed.:exclamatiScams - Shared Equity, Shared Ownership, Newbuy, Firstbuy and Help to Buy.
Save our Savers
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Will there be candles, please let there be candles?0
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Actually I have never liked that graph - why are they plotting rate of change rather than absolute level - could it be because it makes things look a lot more extreme and therefore more news worthy? When they do graphs of unemployment or the price of petrol I don't seem them graphing the rate of change only the absolute numbers. After all on an absolute scale it would tell 2 stories - yes prices went up a lot at the start of last year that has since been reversed but also that prices are still along way above their level of 10 years ago.
Or how about an affordability graph - say the cost of acquiring a house outright over 25 years as a % of average income. Again this figure is not as scarey as the income multiples people like to quote on here as interest rates are lower and forward interest rates do not suggest any imminent return to the levels of previous decades. I could also go on about inelasticity of demand for housing (ie with rising incomes people are willing to devote a larger proportion of their income to housing costs) and the innate supply constraints (see what happens to the price of oil, big increases but people do not switch away as their are no alternatives).
However don't get me wrong I am not an 'HPC denier' (with all the connotations and hatred that followers of that doctorine receive on this board) but for me the previous rise and the current fall are rooted in expectations: Previously buying, even in to what was obviously a bubble, made sense as the consensus expectation was for further rises which became self perpetuating. The opposite situation pertains at the moment, as in classic deflations, why but now when you can get the same thing for less in the future?
And yes I have put my money where my mouth is; I sold my BTL last August, the money is in a high interest account atiing till the gap in prices between my current small terrace and the semi I would like has fallen to a sum I would be happy with.
Just leave them alone they're happy doing it. It kind of makes up for missing the nice decade where you could double your money on a house in 5 years. You never know those kind of opportunity may come again in our lifetime, although i would prefer houses at a much affordable level for teachers etc and just stay there.0 -
And from the other side. Personally I think it is more worrying than your graphs, but there you go.
Graph of the price of houses since 1960
....and adjusted for inflation.
Graph of real increase in price of houses since 1960Hope for the best.....Plan for the worst!
"Never in the history of the world has there been a situation so bad that the government can't make it worse." Unknown0
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