Panic selling by landlords could turn slump into rout

Generali

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I see the stats as from 0.73% to 0.9%
Where do you see the 1.2%?

From the numbers I got from the CML site:

Period....Mortgages...% with 3 mth+ arrears.....% with RoR in place
Q4 06....835,900............0.58..................... ...........0.05
Q1 07....887,100............0.60..................... ...........0.05
Q2 07....926,500............0.63..................... ...........0.05
Q3 07....978,900............0.61..................... ...........0.05
Q4 07..1,024,300...........0.73...................... ..........0.05
Q1 08..1,073,300...........0.90...................... ..........0.08

Period.......% where repo started.....% repossessed
Q4 06................0.04............................ ....0.06
Q1 07................0.05............................ ....0.07
Q2 07................0.05............................ ....0.08
Q3 07................0.05............................ ....0.10
Q4 07................0.06............................ ....0.12
Q1 08................0.08............................ ....0.15

RoR stands for receiver of rent. So 0.73% of BTL mortgages were distressed in Q4 2006 whereas 1.21% were in Q1 2008.

I may have misinterpreted them of course but the CML website is pretty clear that the figures should be treated cumulatively rather than being subsets of the larger group. At least that's my interpretation.

IveSeenTheLight

Generali wrote: »

From the numbers I got from the CML site:



I may have misinterpreted them of course.

No problem, everyone can mis-interpret info.
The figures on CML website is however 0.73% in Q4 2007 to 0.9% in Q1 2008
http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/statistics

Generali

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

No problem, everyone can mis-interpret info.
The figures on CML website is however 0.73% in Q4 2007 to 0.9% in Q1 2008
http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/statistics

That's just the figure for 3 month arrears. I include the numbers where action has started. My reading of the notes is that the RoR and repo figures are separate from the arrears figures:

3. Receiver of Rent (RoR) cases are excluded from arrears and possessions figures and reported separately.

(From the notes on the AP5Q worksheet on the AP5 spreadsheet).

Harry_Powell

Interesting how the (hoped for?) exodus from BTL never materialised. I often wonder if the journo's who write this sort of alarmist bunk do it so that they can scare the foolish and dive into a lower asset price.

carolt

Ta Harry, at this rate I shan't need to post any more threads -you keep so sweetly rehashing my old ones.

Is work very slow at the moment?

PasturesNew

carolt wrote: »

Ta Harry, at this rate I shan't need to post any more threads -you keep so sweetly rehashing my old ones.

Is work very slow at the moment?

He has a sweet obsession about you ..... how cute.

fc123

Harry_Powell wrote: »

Interesting how the (hoped for?) exodus from BTL never materialised. I often wonder if the journo's who write this sort of alarmist bunk do it so that they can scare the foolish and dive into a lower asset price.

Do you rememeber reading on here any predictions for low interest rates...or to 0.5%? I don;t and it was the biggest surpise as it was all rates going up....

The BTL'ers I know went in at peak with a MEW for the deposit...bought 2 places for 500k.

Speaking to them recently, they were ''very happy'' as they were on a tracker and the rents are £600 more than the mortage payments...so they are overpaying for the time being. Also looks like any drop in value will creep back up soon too,

Emy1501

Harry_Powell wrote: »

Interesting how the (hoped for?) exodus from BTL never materialised. I often wonder if the journo's who write this sort of alarmist bunk do it so that they can scare the foolish and dive into a lower asset price.

Er it did? Thats part of the reason prices fell betwen Nov 2007 till when interest rates dropped which of course no one would of know was going to happen in the mid of 2008. Even the Wilsons admit that they would have gone bust if the banks had not collapsed and interest rates dropped to .5%

Also what is it with all these people bringing up all these old posts from 2008?

Harry_Powell

There is an old saying, Without a past, there can be no future. Basically this means that unless we learn from the past we keep making the same mistakes in the future. By looking at the historical predictions in here, we can see who we can rely on for future predictions. I have to say that carolt and most of the 'bears' were completely wrong. Purch seems to be coming out of these very well and most of the 'bulls' seem to have made sensible level-headed predictions.

chucky

dopester wrote: »

This graph is always welcome on any thread + the updated versions will be welcome for many many months to come. :rotfl:

yes, you're right it is welcome on any thread Dopester



especially that I'm sure when it's you and you take it in the spirit that it was meant