Panic selling by landlords could turn slump into rout

IveSeenTheLight

chucky wrote: »

you've called me a bull a number of times. i actually called it 20% down then and didn't believe in 40% or 50% drops.

it was probably because i said that the price drops were a correction not a crash. the real bursting of the bubble hasn't happened yet.

i'm a bull for thinking this way? it's ignorance from these 'bearish' posters who throw this description about, that's the only way to explain it.

I too said that prices needed to correct by 22% (see above) :T

lostinrates

harry_powell wrote: »

<blossom>?

:a:a:a:a:a

chucky

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Here's one of mine which sad that I though house prices on average would need to correct by 22% immediately or 15% over three years.
I included several links to other predictions I made.
Most were in the first half of 2008 but there is one in 2007.

Seems like I was pretty close

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=12813653&postcount=6

obviously Emy doesn't know how to use the search function

here's one from me quoting 30% down... and i'm supposed to be a bull. :rotfl:

chucky wrote: »

30% at least for poor properties
better properties will see drops but would say up and around 10%.
if the poorer property drops more this will drag down the general price of all London property.

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=16131565&postcount=18

IveSeenTheLight

Getting back to the thread header.
I'm a landlord and I haven't sold, certainly not any panic selling that I have seen.
In fact, my tenants have been in contact wanting to extend their lease again.
Certainly seems to be a strong rental market in my VI area.
What would be the advantage of selling?

mbga9pgf

Protecting yourself from the voids that will occur as a result of unemployment climbing in the public sector?

Or how about preservation of of capital? How many BTLs you got? If it were just the one, I would agree, if you were another Fergus, I would be a bit worried.

chucky

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Protecting yourself from the voids that will occur as a result of unemployment climbing in the public sector?

Or how about preservation of of capital? How many BTLs you got? If it were just the one, I would agree, if you were another Fergus, I would be a bit worried.

if, if, if, if

you've been living on 'if this happens' or 'if that happens' for the past 3 years saying that there's something else about to crash the system.

hasn't happened but at least your consistent in making terrible predictions

Oil_Shock

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Getting back to the thread header.
I'm a landlord and I haven't sold, certainly not any panic selling that I have seen.
In fact, my tenants have been in contact wanting to extend their lease again.
Certainly seems to be a strong rental market in my VI area.
What would be the advantage of selling?

Mmmm I tend to agree, I will state my reasons below.

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Protecting yourself from the voids that will occur as a result of unemployment climbing in the public sector?

Or how about preservation of of capital? How many BTLs you got? If it were just the one, I would agree, if you were another Fergus, I would be a bit worried.

Much as it churns my stomach to say, I'd be very surprised if this happens, the problem is we have a government (and possibly future government) that will use taxpayers money to prop up prices, homeowners and landlords. This would continue until we end up in the same position as Greece, ending up like Greece is not a forgone conclusion at this time.

Much as it pains me to say, house prices are unlikely to drop much below where they were last year at the bottom of the market, the reason ? insolvent banks would have to crystalize their losses as repossessions soared leaving the government to have to bail them out again, which of course it couldn't do.

Only external forces now can bring prices down to affordable levels for ordinary people.

IveSeenTheLight

Oil_Shock wrote: »

Only external forces now can bring prices down to affordable levels for ordinary people.

Like vastly increasing the supply of housing where demand currently outweighs the supply

Oil_Shock

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Like vastly increasing the supply of housing where demand currently outweighs the supply

That's one reason, the other reason would be the forced increase of IR's. We only have to look at Greece. I remember saying to StevieJ sometime ago that there is just as much chance of needing a deposit to get a house in 10-15 years time as there is a shotgun and shells. I believe he gave me short shrift.

However we only have to look at the riots and civil unrest in Greece, that is set to get much worse as austerity measures bite to see that this could easily happen and happen quickly.

IveSeenTheLight

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Protecting yourself from the voids that will occur as a result of unemployment climbing in the public sector?

Or how about preservation of of capital? How many BTLs you got? If it were just the one, I would agree, if you were another Fergus, I would be a bit worried.

I have two leased properties.

My void average as a percentage is 0.66%
or
in day terms 16 days out of 2442 days

I'm certainly not concerned with a void of 2.39 days per year average (and currently reducing)

The two properties are rented out to a professional couple and currently to students backed by gaurantors

Moving on to preservation of capital, the newest property I added to the portfolio was in Jan 07 and never has the VI area average dropped below since then.
According to the ROSEA the average price in Jan 07 was £148,488 while currently the average (Mar 10) is £169,607.
This represents an increase of 14.22%
http://www.ros.gov.uk/professional/eservices/land_property_data/lpd_stats.html
On top of this, the tenants have helped along with low interest rates to dramatically reduce the outstanding mortgage, increasing the equity I outlayed in the purchase of the property.
Where is the capitol loss?

You may be worried, but I am not