House prices fall 1.9% YoY in May (hometrack report)

JonnyBravo

Generali wrote: »

The HBOS method of comparing rolling averages works well for me as it removes the noise of movable things such as Easter for the most part.

Fine by me too. However, I don't feel the need to dismiss those quoting YoY.

Generali wrote: »

No statistic is perfect. Some are more useful than others.

Of course not.
As for more useful????? Well surely that depends on what one wants to look at? What you mean is you find some more useful for the things you tend to compare/look at.

artherfouxache

JonnyBravo wrote: »

Of course the YoY data incorporates all the data from the last year. That doesn't mean it's out of date.

of what use is it then?? Why would you want to use YoY figures if prices are heading south MoM? ......

So you would buy a property now based on say the last year where there have been 7 months of +ives followed by the most recent 5 months of -ives? ....... would YOU encourage others to buy?? .... after all the last 12 months are still +ive?

Generali

JonnyBravo wrote: »

As for more useful????? Well surely that depends on what one wants to look at? What you mean is you find some more useful for the things you tend to compare/look at.

That's what I was trying to say. Thanks for clarifying.

JonnyBravo

artherfouxache wrote: »

of what use is it then?? Why would you want to use YoY figures if prices are heading south MoM? ......

So you would buy a property now based on say the last year where there have been 7 months of +ives followed by the most recent 5 months of -ives? ....... would YOU encourage others to buy?? .... after all the last 12 months are still +ive?

I wouldn't dream of advising someone to buy or not buy simply and solely on the basis of some universal house price data trend at all.... no matter what it said.

Can you really not see the logical extension to your argument? Will it help if I spell it out?

OK....
so how about if your MoM is positive for the last six months but your last one alone is negative? How about vice versa.

How about if they are all positive and the last weeks data is negative? How about vice versa?

etc etc

Just where is your cut off?

JonnyBravo

Generali wrote: »

That's what I was trying to say. Thanks for clarifying.

Ah good!
Sit back and enjoy a beer then :beer:

Generali

JonnyBravo wrote: »

Ah good!
Sit back and enjoy a beer then :beer:

I would but probably best not done at work. Will have a sip of tepid tea instead.

artherfouxache

JonnyBravo wrote: »

I wouldn't dream of advising someone to buy or not buy simply and solely on the basis of some universal house price data trend at all.... no matter what it said.

Can you really not see the logical extension to your argument? Will it help if I spell it out?

OK....
so how about if your MoM is positive for the last six months but your last one alone is negative? How about vice versa.

How about if they are all positive and the last weeks data is negative? How about vice versa?

etc etc

Just where is your cut off?

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/
House prices fell 2.5% MoM
House prices fell 4.4% YoY
But don't worry because ...... and here's the good news......
.......House prices are STILL 5% higher than 2 year ago!! ..... 2Yo2Y :rotfl:

JonnyBravo

artherfouxache wrote: »

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/
House prices fell 2.5% MoM
House prices fell 4.4% YoY
But don't worry because ...... and here's the good news......
.......House prices are STILL 5% higher than 2 year ago!! ..... 2Yo2Y :rotfl:

Oh dear oh dear...... you seem to be another working yourself into a frenzy.:rolleyes:

I'll take it slowly.
I agree house prices are falling.
I'm not shouting for them to rise.
I'm not advising people in general that it is a good time to buy.
I do have money on them falling at least 10% by year end.


I was trying to point out that there is no reason to be suspicious of YoY figures. Your inability to understand how they work is more worrying.... well for you anyhow. I'm well aware of how they work which is why I have money on a YoY figure. (Actually its comparing two rolling quarter figures one year apart... but that's similar enough for your level of understanding)

Alas I feel my words shall fall on ears incapable of grasping the argument


BTW why did your last post use YoY figures.... the very ones you said we should be suspicious of?


:rotfl:

artherfouxache

JonnyBravo wrote: »

Oh dear oh dear...... you seem to be another working yourself into a frenzy.:rolleyes:

I'll take it slowly.
I agree house prices are falling.
I'm not shouting for them to rise.
I'm not advising people in general that it is a good time to buy.
I do have money on them falling at least 10% by year end.


I was trying to point out that there is no reason to be suspicious of YoY figures. Your inability to understand how they work is more worrying.... well for you anyhow. I'm well aware of how they work which is why I have money on a YoY figure. (Actually its comparing two rolling quarter figures one year apart... but that's similar enough for your level of understanding)

Alas I feel my words shall fall on ears incapable of grasping the argument


BTW why did your last post use YoY figures.... the very ones you said we should be suspicious of?


:rotfl:

because things seem to have moved on........ now it seems, it's the 2YoY figures we should be suspicious of .:D

It is the use of some figures to put a positive spin on the housing market that is wrong.

I know people who have been in total denial that prices are coming down, quoting what they hear on the news that annual prices are (have been) on the up, ignoring the short term (and unreported) negative figures. They seem surprised how anyone could know the annual figures would turn negative.

My concern is for gullible FTBs, and the like, who have been fed (spun) the 'rosier' long term figures.

.

WTF?_2

artherfouxache wrote: »

of what use is it then?? Why would you want to use YoY figures if prices are heading south MoM? ......

So you would buy a property now based on say the last year where there have been 7 months of +ives followed by the most recent 5 months of -ives? ....... would YOU encourage others to buy?? .... after all the last 12 months are still +ive?

A MoM figure can indicate the current trend but a YoY figure definitely confirms a drop in the market.

It's not out of the question that we could see a MoM drop one or two months in row, which then reverses. However, YoY drops are a lot less likely to reverse and more indicative that the drop is here to stay.


In any case, MoM and YoY figures are all telling us the same thing. The housing market is toast.