House prices fall 1.9% YoY in May (hometrack report)

beingjdc

pickles110564 wrote: »

So just because oil price is going up that make HPI.
Dream on

Fair enough

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article2701309.ece

We'll see, when the price comes down or the oil runs out, won't we? It's got to be one or the other.

If the price of cider went up 1000% in ten years with no decline in demand, I'd expect rampant HPI in rural mid-Somerset. If the price of champagne went up 1000% in ten years with no decline in demand, I'd expect rampant HPI in the South Ardennes. If the price of coal had gone up 1000% in the 1960s I would have expected rampant HPI in South Yorkshire and Wales.

Why should Aberdeen be different?

mitchaa

pickles110564 wrote: »

So just because oil price is going up that make HPI.
Dream on
I suppose these oil companys have increased everyones pay at the same rate as petrol price increases?

Of course when you think about it logically, Aberdeen will also suffer as the banks lending criteria has been tightened no matter where you live in the country, so FTB's in Aberdeen will struggle just as much as FTB's in London.

However what will help Aberdeen is the fact it's europes oil capital with a lot of wealth in the city, and that prices are already realistic and do not need a correction.

They are significantly cheaper than southern England for example.

So yes, although Aberdeen will suffer due to the tightening of credit, less sales etc, i would be truelly surprised if 4 bed £225k detached homes start dropping to £150k etc.

However, I can see 4 bed detached homes in Surrey/London etc though dropping from £600k down to £400k.

Aberdeen is still cheap to buy hence why i think it will survive basically.

Kez100

mitchaa wrote: »

Good for you, but why do i want to educate myself with hometrack on the current state of property? I couldn't give a monkeys. I intend to live in my home:rolleyes:

Yes i will continue to use LR figures as the others have so much variables that they are hardly believable. Tell you what, as a test to this, tell me how much the nationwide tell us an average British home is worth and then log onto halifax and do the same. I think you'll find they are worlds apart so which do you believe?

All a lot of nonsense anyway, my home has increased by a considerable amount in the 10 months ive had hold of it:D

While you live in it, your home is actually worth nothing. In fact, it's a liability, as you have a mortgage which has to be paid monthly to keep that roof over your head and ensure that the vultures are not nipping at your heels.

It's only an asset to you if you die.

Oh, the irony.

mitchaa

thriftybabe wrote: »

Nice way to take about your "friend". I wonder what you would say about an enemy?

He knows he's thick as mince, we have banter about it all the time when we are down the pub. He left school with no quals and a series of convictions.

Now he's earning £50k+ with an unskilled job that anyone could possibly do. He wouldn't take offence to that at all.

mitchaa

dopester wrote: »

Well the BBC's data doesn't seem to agree with you.

Just do me a favour, after all your hard core unshakeable belief on the forums about property in your area continuing to be on the up-and-up and not vulnerable to a crash - and others with the "Regional Differences" argument - don't be coming back in 12 to 24 months time trying to blame everyone else but yourself. You've had your warnings and chose not to accept them.

Depends on where you are taking your data (Page 7)

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/q1_2008.pdf

You've highlighted last 1/4 but still look at YOY gains. Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire over the past year has risen 15-18%

Down from about 23-25% last quarter granted, but still a good yearly increase.

Im not in the housing market for money, only for a home, so i really dont care how much equity is in it (Although i will in 4yrs time when i remortgage purely for LTV reasons) If it goes down, then so be it, but house prices only ever go up (In the long run anyway)

I have a nice 4 bed detached home now, i dont need anything more than what ive already got. Unless i win the lottery of course

Its solely used for a home until i pop it, and then a nice inheritance for my kids when i do so. Im not interested in equity spending and being maxxed to the eyeballs LTV wise.

thriftybabe

My OH left school with no qualifications and now runs a successful company. He has ample ambition and that is how he has got to where he is today. I for one am glad he is allegedly "thick" and left school with no qualifications. We sit here today Mortgage Free, cash in the bank, have just set up a new company alongside our long running company and doing alright.

mitchaa

thriftybabe wrote: »

My OH left school with no qualifications and now runs a successful company. He has ample ambition and that is how he has got to where he is today. I for one am glad he is allegedly "thick" and left school with no qualifications. We sit here today Mortgage Free, cash in the bank, have just set up a new company alongside our long running company and doing alright.

I believe Sir Alan Sugar left school with no qualifications also. (Worth about £800m)

I bet David Beckham had none either.

And i bet there are many out there with masters and honours degrees struggling to survive on salaries of less than £20k.

Sometimes its just all about luck/fate.

WTF?_2

Regardless of which survey you believe or have even heard about, anyone who hasn't figured out by now that prices are very much on the way down really needs their head read.

thriftybabe

Exactly! :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

mitchaa

I dont think there is anyone in denial that prices are dropping.

It's by how much is where it gets interesting.

Some people are going bananas at 60/70 and even 80%, and some at 5-10%.

Suppose it depends on where you live in the country, as to how hard you'll get hit.

5-10% in Aberdeen
10-20% in other areas of Scotland
20-30% northern and middle England
40%+ in the south inc London.

My prediction anyway