Competitions Discussion Thread Part 6

VelvetGlove

josie301 wrote: »

Thanks VG & VGBF

all was going well but it is still giving me the same response! I don't think FF is working quite right because it says stuff will be 'uninstalled when FF is restarted' then I click the restart button and it restarts but hasn't removed what it says it will! Even tried a total system restart - nada!

I'll have my bro take a look when he gets a minute. I'll stuggle on with a page at a time lol

Sorry it didn't work for you I hope your bro can sort it out

josie301

mpython wrote: »

Just thinking out loud....

I wonder how long before there's tears (moans) over the comp ending list for 31/8 (which might have 1100 comps listed on it) and the site being down all day saturday......

they've already started


ETA - noo worries VG, thanks for your help!

dementedhousewife

Mamzie wrote: »

hmm, winners list, I may take a look.

I have to admit that if it hadn't been for Munchkin, I wouldn't have realised I had won yesterday jewellry goodie bag £300 from Loulas bouqitue. I honestly didn't see that I would need to check back to claim it.

Not bad as I only started recomping this week, after a break for the ss ummer, on page 132 tonight...

You have to do 5 or more posts to view the Winners Lists Now
They have changed their rules :huh:

Mamzie

ummm, I may be able to do that, its getting me to be quiet is more of a problem...

dvc214

Just wanted to post a bit of probability theory to knock some mis-conceptions on the head! I'm currently studying statistics with the open university.

I used to think and many people still do, that if you win a competition then you're less likely to win another afterwards. This may be true if the two competitions are related, for example, Joe Bloggs may win a competition from company A, company A may be a little unscrupulous and view Joe's other competition entries in a different light.

Generally, as long as we can view the chances of success as independant, (ie. not related to each other) then if Joe Bloggs has already acheived one success, then this does not affect his chances of another success.

This can be quite confusing as you may say for example, "If I enter six competitions it is not likely that I'll win all six". This may be true, but none of the win's had happened at the time of the statement.

To put some mathematics around it ...

Say for a competition there are x entries and only 1 of those entries will win. Assuming that each entrant has an equal chance of winning, the probability of a win for an individual is 1/x.

Say another competition there are y entries and 5 entries will win. Again, assuming that each entrant has an equal chance of winning, the probability of a win is 5/y.

If Joe Bloggs was to enter both competitions, his probability of winning both (before any winners have been announced and assuming both competitions are independant of each other) is 1/x * 5/y. As these are both fractions the result of this calculation will be a less likely probability than the competitions on their own.

However, if Joe Bloggs has already won the first competition, then his probability of winning competition 2 is still 5/y. This hasn't changed because we've assumed that there's no relationship between the two competitions.

Studying statistics has really opened my eyes and has made me view comping differently, if you've won something don't lose heart that you're less likely to win something again. Keep it up!

Update for sceptics

The sceptics among you may wish to prove this for yourselves using a coin.

What is the probability of getting heads two times in a row? The theory says 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4 (1 in 4 on average), you'll need to flip a coin twice several times to start to see the average taking effect (we cheat and use computer simulations to prove it)

Then repeat the experiment, but only record when the first toss is a head. You'll find that the probability of tossing a head in the second toss (provided the first toss is a head) is 1/2 (1 in 2 on average).

clairesims1978

lol tis very early for me to be reading probability but I totally get where your coming from !!!

By the way, I loved statistics at school, what a saddo hey !!!!!!!

Happy comping everyone xxx.

NOLUCKNIK

yeah it is early in the morning but after reading it five times over, that makes sense!!!

Shellybee

OMG it is way too early and not nearly enough caffine for me to understand that lot, actually it probably wouldn't matter what time it was and how much caffine I had....i'm pretty thick hahaha

Thanks for the info

BenhamsLC

I still think it comes down to the luck of the draw, how many people enter, etc.
Don't forget you need to be in it to win it and have a positive attitude, anything is possible.

webitha

pish total pish,
the more i enter the less i seems to winlol
take note of my sig lol