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Competitions Discussion Thread Part 6

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  • VelvetGlove
    VelvetGlove Posts: 12,008 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Combo Breaker
    josie301 wrote: »
    Thanks VG & VGBF

    all was going well but it is still giving me the same response! I don't think FF is working quite right because it says stuff will be 'uninstalled when FF is restarted' then I click the restart button and it restarts but hasn't removed what it says it will! Even tried a total system restart - nada!

    I'll have my bro take a look when he gets a minute. I'll stuggle on with a page at a time lol

    Sorry it didn't work for you :( I hope your bro can sort it out :)
    Sad because you don't know what to do? :sad: Comping question? Take a look in the Comping Guide to find out :smiley:
  • josie301
    josie301 Posts: 4,654 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    mpython wrote: »
    Just thinking out loud....

    I wonder how long before there's tears (moans) over the comp ending list for 31/8 (which might have 1100 comps listed on it) and the site being down all day saturday......

    they've already started ;)


    ETA - noo worries VG, thanks for your help!
    Jo x
    2007:£5181.09 2008: £6619.70 2009: £4284.49 2010: £5213.14 2011: £4980.62 2012: £3188.52 :)

  • Mamzie wrote: »
    hmm, winners list, I may take a look.

    I have to admit that if it hadn't been for Munchkin, I wouldn't have realised I had won yesterday jewellry goodie bag £300 from Loulas bouqitue. I honestly didn't see that I would need to check back to claim it.

    Not bad as I only started recomping this week, after a break for the ss ummer, on page 132 tonight...


    You have to do 5 or more posts to view the Winners Lists Now
    They have changed their rules :huh:
    Comping & Coupons!
  • Mamzie
    Mamzie Posts: 2,540 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture Combo Breaker
    ummm, I may be able to do that, its getting me to be quiet is more of a problem...
    My light may be on, but that doesn't always mean I am looking at the PC - I am far more likely to be cuddling or feeding Tianna atm, so please don't think I am ignoring you if I don't reply quickly :)

    Our Precious Baby Tianna has now joined our Family, she is much loved and very welcome, xxx
  • dvc214
    dvc214 Posts: 25 Forumite
    Just wanted to post a bit of probability theory to knock some mis-conceptions on the head! I'm currently studying statistics with the open university.

    I used to think and many people still do, that if you win a competition then you're less likely to win another afterwards. This may be true if the two competitions are related, for example, Joe Bloggs may win a competition from company A, company A may be a little unscrupulous and view Joe's other competition entries in a different light.

    Generally, as long as we can view the chances of success as independant, (ie. not related to each other) then if Joe Bloggs has already acheived one success, then this does not affect his chances of another success.

    This can be quite confusing as you may say for example, "If I enter six competitions it is not likely that I'll win all six". This may be true, but none of the win's had happened at the time of the statement.

    To put some mathematics around it ...

    Say for a competition there are x entries and only 1 of those entries will win. Assuming that each entrant has an equal chance of winning, the probability of a win for an individual is 1/x.

    Say another competition there are y entries and 5 entries will win. Again, assuming that each entrant has an equal chance of winning, the probability of a win is 5/y.

    If Joe Bloggs was to enter both competitions, his probability of winning both (before any winners have been announced and assuming both competitions are independant of each other) is 1/x * 5/y. As these are both fractions the result of this calculation will be a less likely probability than the competitions on their own.

    However, if Joe Bloggs has already won the first competition, then his probability of winning competition 2 is still 5/y. This hasn't changed because we've assumed that there's no relationship between the two competitions.

    Studying statistics has really opened my eyes and has made me view comping differently, if you've won something don't lose heart that you're less likely to win something again. Keep it up!

    Update for sceptics

    The sceptics among you may wish to prove this for yourselves using a coin.

    What is the probability of getting heads two times in a row? The theory says 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4 (1 in 4 on average), you'll need to flip a coin twice several times to start to see the average taking effect (we cheat and use computer simulations to prove it)

    Then repeat the experiment, but only record when the first toss is a head. You'll find that the probability of tossing a head in the second toss (provided the first toss is a head) is 1/2 (1 in 2 on average).
    It's not the taking part ... it's the WINNING that counts ;)
    Won so far ... free junk mail, spam, irrelevant catalogues
    Aug 2008 - £5, Sept 2008 - £356.89, Oct 2008 - £59.62
  • lol tis very early for me to be reading probability but I totally get where your coming from !!!

    By the way, I loved statistics at school, what a saddo hey !!!!!!!

    Happy comping everyone xxx.
    Thanks to all posters and contributers :beer:
  • NOLUCKNIK
    NOLUCKNIK Posts: 782 Forumite
    yeah it is early in the morning but after reading it five times over, that makes sense!!!
    :)
  • Shellybee
    Shellybee Posts: 4,171 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture Combo Breaker
    OMG it is way too early and not nearly enough caffine for me to understand that lot, actually it probably wouldn't matter what time it was and how much caffine I had....i'm pretty thick hahaha

    Thanks for the info :D
    :coffee:
  • BenhamsLC
    BenhamsLC Posts: 5,880 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    I still think it comes down to the luck of the draw, how many people enter, etc.
    Don't forget you need to be in it to win it and have a positive attitude, anything is possible.
    Silver Surfer, Always Smiling

    114 wins in 2015, 94 wins in 2016
    121 Wins in 2017, 154 wins in 2018
    90 wins in 2019, 37 wins in 2020
    Good Luck and Thank You
  • webitha
    webitha Posts: 4,799 Forumite
    pish total pish,
    the more i enter the less i seems to winlol
    take note of my sig lol
    If we can put a man on the moon...how come we cant put them all there?

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