House prices won't crash - say Daily Express

dannyboycey

It seems such a shame that trees have to be used to produce this rubbish.

johnycoldears

What really annoys me is the comment beneath the article from Marigold, blithely trotting out the old "property has doubled every seven years since the end of the war" argument.

This statement is blatantly not true. Throughout WW2 there was no property market - unsurprisngly people had more important things on their mind - and average property price was listed at a constant £500. The first year following the war, 1946 the average property price is listed as £1,400.
Since 1946 is the first year following the war this should be our starting point. On this basis if property had doubled every seven years the average house would now cost £716,800 ! , nothing like the £190,000 it actually is.

If people actually believe these ridiculous anectodetes it is no wonder that such a speculative market in property exists

johng_uk

Is 15% (5% per year) over 3 years what anyone would constitute as a crash?

Comparatively speaking I guess it does constitute a 'crash' of sorts. If you compare a 5% per year drop to what house prices were doing prior to the credit crunch, it's a vast difference. It's in the wording though, as crash conjures visions of crumbling finances/prices etc. It would probably be better worded 'correction' - As realistically that's what it would be. Gone are the tripling of house prices in 8 - 9 years!

Personally I think that the prices will gradually fall for 2 - 3 years and not crash through the floor. Although as a potential ftb with a sizeable deposit I kind of hope that they do crash (my heartfelt apologies to homeowners everywhere!) This would allow me to afford a decent house for my family before prices rise again. Selfish I know but there you go!

iyiarz

Well said phil_b, Your right. Crash and Crisis we are not in.
Its the people twitching with histeria and/or excitement, fueled by the media that are making it appear that way. I'm relaxed and optimistic about the whole afair.

I'd go far as saying some of the excited pro-crash people on this forum are behaving like the 'Quick Grabbit' folks over a mis-priced telly at Argos, which you know won't arrive :O)

johng_uk

I'm relaxed and optimistic about the whole afair.

Optimistic in which sense iyiarz? I take it your waiting to jump on the property ladder also?

dopester

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Crystal Balls exactly....
No-one will ever really know.

I suppose all of the 9 previous times since year 1570 where economic boom ended in a big credit crunch, which in EVERY INSTANCE saw property and land values crash, causing a lot of ruin each time businessmen, businesses, and with political backlash - holds no insight in to what will be the result of this credit crunch.

Honestly, when I read people talking about "crystal balls", it's quite clear they have very little historical knowledge. The past gives a serious insight to the future.

brit1234

johng_uk wrote: »

Personally I think that the prices will gradually fall for 2 - 3 years and not crash through the floor.

When has there ever been 2-3 years of falls and no crash? If anything due to record high overvalued property, the sudden stop of loose lending and the weakness of the buy to let Market we are are likely to have the biggest crash on record.

The only way prices won't crash is if banks are prepared to lend more money at lower interest rates than last year and that is highly unlikely.

iyiarz

Optimistic in which sense iyiarz? I take it your waiting to jump on the property ladder also?

Nope, I'm not. I'm on the ladder, waiting to move up...
And I'm not waiting for prices to fall as such, it makes little difference to me. I'm waiting for people to calm down and for things to level out again so people start buying again.

ruggedtoast

When (if) more banks go bust

More banks than Northern Rock, Bear Sterns and the half dozen other banks that would have gone under save for large loans - like A&L, and Bradford and Bingley (staggering under their own rights issue). Not to mention the banks in the States and Iceland. How many more banks need to have no money in them for you to consider theres a problem with the banking system?

unemplyment rockets

Been rising every month since February.

he masses are real-life effected I will consider that we are amidst a crises .

Like affected by something else other than a credit crisis, rising unemployment, spiralling inflation, peak oil and a housing crash?

Are you an Express reader by any chance Phil?

johng_uk

Crystal Balls exactly....
No-one will ever really know.

But we will all soon find out lol!!

Honestly, when I read people talking about "crystal balls", it's quite clear they have very little historical knowledge. The past gives a serious insight to the future.

There are too many variables to accurately predict what will happen. Even the 'experts' don't know. The future does not always follow the past, and however much historical knowledge one has, we will all only find out the outcome in time.