House prices won't crash - say Daily Express

turbobob

A balanced article as usual from the "worlds greatest newspaper" :rolleyes:http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/45054/House-prices-won-t-crash

I like the way they've disabled comments on this story. It seems even their own readers have been asking !!!!!! they are on about in their recent stories talking up the current housing boom.

Snooze

I've never had such a good laugh in a long time :

John Wriglesworth, housing economist at Wriglesworth Consultancy, said: “There is no sign of a property crash and never has been".

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

Stuart Law, of Assetz House Price Index which carried out the research, said: “I am yet to see any firm evidence of a housing market crash."

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

And the best one -

Peter Bolton King, chief executive of the National Association of Estate Agents, also predicted an upturn in the market in the second half of the year.

He said: “There is no housing crisis, we have no credit crisis."

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

You couldn't make it up! :T

I think that John, Stuart and Peter need to book themselves urgent appointments here :



Rob

Old_Git

well if its in the papers it must be true

Paul_N_4

There is no house price crash. There is no credit crunch.

johng_uk

What an article lol.

Who are these people trying to kid? It's obvious that a correction has begun.

I think the question is: "How far will house prices correct?"

IveSeenTheLight

johng_uk wrote: »

What an article lol.

Who are these people trying to kid? It's obvious that a correction has begun.

I think the question is: "How far will house prices correct?"

I think one point might be, when does a correction become a crash?

Prices may correct (differently in different areas), but will they crash?

phil_b_2

Maybe its his choice of words which give him the confidence to say these things:

"There is no sign of a property crash and never has been"

“There is no housing crisis, we have no credit crisis."

I cant see a 'crash' or 'crisis' either. Prices falling, and a shortage of credit. Problems yes, crashes and crises', not really. Not yet at least. I've not heard anyone outside of these forums speak of certain iminent doom and collapse.

The bit about an upturn in the market in the second half of the year is certainly optimistic though!

poppysarah

LOL if a crisis isn't having to buy northern rock and then prop up the other banks then I don't know what is!

johng_uk

think one point might be, when does a correction become a crash?

Prices may correct (differently in different areas), but will they crash?

If I could add intonation to my posts it would make sense - I mean the same as you. When does a correction become a crash, and how far will the UK's correction go.

Crystal balls at the ready folks........

phil_b_2

poppysarah wrote: »

LOL if a crisis isn't having to buy northern rock and then prop up the other banks then I don't know what is!

When (if) more banks go bust, unemplyment rockets and the masses are real-life effected I will consider that we are amidst a crises .

If banks get bailed out, we continue to tick over and things eventually manage to stabalize I wont be sweating much.

IveSeenTheLight

johng_uk wrote: »

If I could add intonation to my posts it would make sense - I mean the saem as you. When does a correction become a crash, and how far will the UK's correction go.

Crystal balls at the ready folks........

Crystal Balls exactly....
No-one will ever really know.

I understand the big factor is that lenders are becoming more strict and tightenting the amount they will lend.
This means that there will be less mortgage approvals and less demand for property, which would in turn mean lower house price rises.
Add in that some people have to sell and will lower the price in order to achieve the sale, this will means prices would lower.

But how much lower? i guess this depends on the sellers needs and how much there is demand for the property with approved mortgages.

Obviously other effects may come on the horizon such as job loses, but until this becomes widespread, how much will the prices lower.

A lot of people say that the economy is built on debt and house prices, but the statistics show that UK average house prices are only approx 22% higher than what the long term house price growth.
So the average should drop by 22% to be in line with the long term house price prediciton.
If house prices were to drop 15% over the next three years, with inflation this would mean that house prices were back on track.

Is 15% (5% per year) over 3 years what anyone would constitute as a crash?

Now historically in the last crash, there was an overshot of the real house price valuation and this could happen again.
Much of this is born from sentiment and certainly there is a lot of sentiment around at the moment calling for house prices to drop.
surely this would just result in after the bust, there would be rapid HPI again

What is best for the economy? Overshoot and drop 40% or a gradula drop of 15% over the next 3 years?

Whats your personal thoughts?