So whats ur plans for doomsday?

jamesd

hedger, if it's financial market trouble, owning gold is traditional. Shorting is another possibility, perhaps owning some of the short ETFs that go up in value when the market that they track goes down. Buying government bonds is another option, particularly those linked to inflation.

For funds you might take a look at these two plus the wider range in the cautious managed and absoluter return sectors, though many in absolute return aren't really absolute return by short term definitions:

BlackRock UK Absolute Alpha
Cru Investment Portfolio

1echidna

dunstonh wrote: »

Of course it does. There are people in their 30s who have never experienced a recession let alone a slow down in growth. They have spent their working life in the good times where property only goes up in value and there is no need to save for a rainy day as you can borrow money whenever you want something..

There are no doubt also youngsters investing in high risk funds. However the point is the youngsters you describe are like to find their debts an extreme burden in a downturn that does not have drastic effects for the majority.

[quoet] They perceive a downturn because they are told there is one. Often by members of the public who wouldnt know if there is one or not. The facts are as Ed says. There is no recession currently just a slow down. Yet some of the mainstream media coverage has been disgraceful scaremongering. ..[/quote]

I would submit that there are more people telling them there isn't a downturn coming than those that are telling them there is. There are too many people in whose interest it is not to talk down the markets.

Media used to report facts. Now they report opinion and scaremongering sells.

Good old fashioned city gossip can be every bit as vicious.

It dont think it makes any difference here. However, the facts cannot be argued with. We are not in recession (at time of posting). We dont have historically high interest rates and we dont have historically high inflation. There are some concerns going forward but there are always concerns of one sort or another.

I don't wish to be personal but I think it makes a lot of difference to someone who makes his money getting people to invest in equities or has big investments himself. We have two big problems in terms of a probable sharp downturn in property prices and a loss of real wealth transferred out of our economy in terms of oil, food and other imported items. Japan sufferred a deep and long downturn without high interest rates or inflation.

Mr_Mumble

The FTSE-100 is now 17.7% above its 2008 low!

International companies are having a good time, its only Britain that is doooooomed!

Jonbvn

With Global Warming & Financial Meltdowns, I have decided that it is better not to watch Sky News ever. They are just looking for the next sound-bite......

I even recall a certain HPC pundit on the property board theorising that we will soon all be living in the equivalent of death camps!

I find that a healthy dose of cynicism is the best defence.

ManAtHome

Well "the boys" are gambling with somebody else's dosh - given the choice between making profits or heading down the road, a bit of !!!!!! or bust "investing" seems a bit of a no-brainer (they're not playing with much of mine at the moment btw).

Aegis

Jonbvn wrote: »

With Global Warming & Financial Meltdowns, I have decided that it is better not to watch Sky News ever. They are just looking for the next sound-bite......

I even recall a certain HPC pundit on the property board theorising that we will soon all be living in the equivalent of death camps!

I find that a healthy dose of cynicism is the best defence.

If you do a little digging on HPC, they've been predicting an imminent crash for about 6 years or so. Now that things are looking like they're going to slip by about 12% or so (predicted recently I believe), they're bound to be jumping on it as their long-awaited buying opportunity, despite the fact that this crash won't even start to wipe away the increases in price over the same timeframe. I suspect there are a lot of people on that forum who are juts desperate to see an 80% drop or so just so they can be right in the long run.

All in all, I take what I read there with a very large handful of salt and make whatever decisions seem right to me based on what I know at the time.

purch

I can't understand why share prices are rising with all the bleak news

The theory is the Stock markets, by now should have discounted most of the 'bad' news.....they will now be looking at the far side of the downturn and the eventual pick up in growth

Thats the theory at least

Of course if the 'end of the world' :eek: comes along in between then they will have got it wrong.........

hedger

Ya can all see why Im confused!!! No-one can seem to agree. Is it a blip, a correction or will there be a full scale crash?
My money is invested through St Jamess Place into relatively stable funds like Invesco Perp, GAM etc. They were doing poor this year but have rallied the last few weeks. However I read yday that Neil Woodford of Inv Per said "we are in for a very bumpy ride in 2008" - that doesnt fill me with confidence when a top fund manager is saying that. So my question is - is it time to get out and look for the other opportunities?

dunstonh

So my question is - is it time to get out and look for the other opportunities?

There are always theoretical bumpy times ahead. You would expect greater volatility this year. Stock markets tend to overreact to bad news and tend to get carried away with good news so when you have a period of good and bad news coming out all the time you would expect a lot of swings.

amcluesent

Stagflation. Collapse in all asset values led by houses. Buying power of £ collapses, England can't afford food or fuel. Strikes all over as workers demand wages keep up with 10%+ inflation. Fixed income/public sector staff experience collapse in living standards. Austerity emergency budget. 2M+ added to dole queue as 'services' sector implodes. Social breakdown leads to anarchy and looting when Police lose control of Northern towns in riots. Banana republics offer to send food rations to England. The Generals plan military coup to restore order.