Is it time to reinvest?

Geoffo_M

I have been 33% in cash for the past few months, whilst the markets have been so volatile during the credit crisis. I am wondering if it's time to pop the old toe back in the water - not the full whack though, cos I think there is still some bad news to come. I've been researching which might be the bet 'toe-dipping' fund and have come up with M &G Recovery.

Anyone any ideas as to timing and fund suitability?

Lokolo

I can predict the future and I say go for it, nothing to lose, everythings going to go fine.

However, apart from my sarcastic comment above, its really upto you. No-one can say its going to all be fine, tomorrow there could be a big boom, or a big downfall. All you can do is hope :rolleyes:

Old_Slaphead

In a perfect market, everything known should be in the current price...therefore who knows whether the market will under/overperform in future??

I take a simple view regarding increasing/decreasing exposure, is market more likely to go to 5400 or 7000 in the medium term. Whichever way I think, that will affect my general short term investment views.

purch

Is it time to reinvest?

If you are talking about the Equity markets.................Yes, the besttime was 6 weeks ago, but you havn't missed 'le bateaux' yet

m_c_s

purch wrote: »

Yes, the besttime was 6 weeks ago

In hindsight of course.

ManAtHome

Dunno - lots of ups and downs for no good reason (rumours, peeps needing to up their bonuses..?). We seems to be getting "everything's fine and dandy" and "OMG it's all diving, el Banko must cut rates" messages at the same time (in the same newsfeeds) every day.

Still think we haven't really had the bad news yet - usual script, everyone hanging on waiting for somebody else to fall off the wall first, but "your mileage may vary" as they say.

tradetime

m_c_s wrote: »

In hindsight of course.

LOL I wouldn't say it's hindsight yet, in fairness the ftse looks a lot better than it's US cousins which are imho at an inflection point, either you've missed the bottom, which at this point is no big deal for a long term investor since new highs are to come.......or you've missed a bear market rally, which unless you are a trader, you don't want any part of. Nowhere near enough pain or pesimism for me to believe a bottom is in.

dunstonh

So, the simple answer is that we havent got the foggiest.

However, we never have the foggiest. To quote Donald Rumsfeld:

As we know, there are known knowns.
There are things we know we know.
We also know there are known unknowns.
That is to say we know there are some things we do not know.
But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don't know we don't know.


That applies to investing just as much as it does war

Jonbvn

My "oilers" have been going big guns last few weeks. However, maybe too late to get in now. Although, the jury is still out on "Peak Oil".

tradetime

Jonbvn wrote: »

My "oilers" have been going big guns last few weeks. However, maybe too late to get in now. Although, the jury is still out on "Peak Oil".

Congrats! Oil's in bubble land at the moment imho, lot of speculative money in there which if something spooks it and they head for the exit at once will produce a nasty correction. That said I wouldn't like to be trying to time that correction, never like to get in front of a train

Browntrout_2

yes, but I have been 100% invested all through the hysteria of credit crunch.

It's Time in the Market, Not Timing the Market, that's important.

S&P 500 Daily Returns
Jan 1st 1982 to Dec 31st 2005

Average Annual Return = 10.6%

What if you missed the best days?

10 of the 6261 trading days - Average Annual Return dropped to 8.1%
20 of the 6261 trading days - Average Annual Return dropped to 6.2%
50 of the 6261 trading days - Average Annual Return dropped to 1.8%

Ken Fisher - The Only Three Questions That Count
Chapter 8 - The Great Humiliator and your Stone Age Brain page 279.

Think about it, you have decided to use managed funds and pay a premium for this service, then you randomly decide to hop in and out of the market, effectively trying to second guess directions when your fund manager is hopefully already doing that (unless using trackers or worse, i.e. individual shares).