Where did the bulls go?

PasturesNew

dopester wrote: »

One of the houses on my "possible" list on Rightmove dropped £135,000 in asking price today

I am waiting until a house I like/want costs that much

Pobby

PasturesNew wrote: »

I am waiting until a house I like/want costs that much

Well todays figures on housing brings it all a little closer home for you.

IveSeenTheLight

Pobby wrote: »

Why don`t you come back and tell us it`s only a blip and in 6 months the market will be roaring away again.Can`t be that you have changed your minds,surely?

Bulls are not like bears, they operate very differently.
One is optomistic, the other is pessimistic.
One sees a bright future, the other see's doom and gloom

Some quotes from wikipedia: -
Bull is short for "bully," in its now mostly obsolete meaning of "excellent."
It relates to the common use of these animals in blood sport, i.e bear-baiting and bull-baiting.
It refers to the way that the animals attack: a bull attacks upwards with its horns, while a bear swipes downwards with its paws.
It relates to the speed of the animals: bulls usually charge at very high speed whereas bears normally are lazy and cautious movers.
They were originally used in reference to two old merchant banking families, the Barings and the Bulstrodes.
Bears hibernate, while Bulls do not.
Bears keep their chin up, while Bulls keep their chin down.
Bear neck points down while Bull's points upwards.
The word "bull" plays off the market's return's being "full" whereas "bear" alludes to the market's returns being "bare".

I guess in relation to your original post, you may be looking for a bull to come out and quote that prices will rise again and you think that bulls think this will happen in a short period.
I don't think bulls are like that, well not me anyway.

Your looking for a bull in 2008, which would be as foolish as any bears were in 2001 / 2002.

Bulls can predict that house prices will rise again, I will predict that.
I predict that house prices will recover and surpass the peak of Oct 2007, I just dont have the crystal ball to say when it will happen.
It may be 2010, 2013, 2018 or whenever, but they will recover

neverdespairgirl

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Bulls are not like bears, they operate very differently.
One is optomistic, the other is pessimistic.
One sees a bright future, the other see's doom and gloom

I am a bear.

I see a bright future - where people aren't paying through the nose for housing.

Oliveru

But unfortunately people just aren't bearish enough to realise the potential if this one, the extent of this crash will surprise everyone except me.

neverdespairgirl unfortunately we will end up paying through the nose for everything else as inflation slowly eats away at our salaries and savings. I say we, ofcourse not me as I have protected myself and am moving abroad.

IveSeenTheLight

neverdespairgirl wrote: »

I am a bear.

I see a bright future - where people aren't paying through the nose for housing.

So do you think as I do that house prices will surpass the Oct 2007 peak?

moanymoany

!!!!!!? wrote: »

There's no need for hubris, now .... The phrase 'Shooting fish in a Barrel' comes to mind when arguing with someone bullish on housing.

Let's face it, there was nothing particularly clever about figuring out which way the market was going to go when it has long been signposted in huge fifty foot high neon letters for anyone with common sense enough to see.

The really surprising thing from all of this is the sheer number of people who quite clearly did not want to see. It's self-delusion on a massive scale and even now there are plenty who still want to deny the reality staring them in the face. Quite bizarre.

As a couple planning to use cash from the house to retire, last year got me scared. Dh wanted to wait until next year to sell, but I knew if we didn't sell this spring it could mean him working till 65. It wasn't price drops that scared me as they go across the board pretty much, it was not being able to sell at all. It took some heavy talking to persuade him and last November we started doing up the house so we were in the best position to sell.

The house went on the market beginning of March. In 4 weeks I could sense a real hardening of the market so again I realised we had to do something. I suggested a big reduction - 5%. He took some persuading, insisting the house was worth more. I showed him the Right Move entries who knew what their house was worth - last year and still there. So, it was reduced and we sold for 7% below first advertised price. Got a cash buyer and the conveyance went through in a day under 4 weeks as we had fantastic conveyancers and we did the running around for documents.

We were bricking it on the day before and day of exchange in case they 'guzundered' - didn't.

Now it's 'we' were really clever! I don't mind, he works hard and is all round triff. It shows that if you are selling you have to keep up with the market and be prepared to react to it - or - do what we did and be proactive. We were the first to make the big reduction and others have followed. Many of them haven't sold.

I think this forecast is nearer the mark than any other I've seen. We are following the USA. I see many people blaming the government, but I don't think it will matter who sits on the seat at no.10, any changes in policy will simply be moving deck chairs....................

JonnyBravo

Oliveru wrote: »

But unfortunately people just aren't bearish enough to realise the potential if this one, the extent of this crash will surprise everyone except me.

neverdespairgirl unfortunately we will end up paying through the nose for everything else as inflation slowly eats away at our salaries and savings. I say we, ofcourse not me as I have protected myself and am moving abroad.

:rotfl:

Priceless!

(I wonder if his dad is bigger than my dad too?)

WTF?_2

moanymoany wrote: »

I think this forecast is nearer the mark than any other I've seen. We are following the USA. I see many people blaming the government, but I don't think it will matter who sits on the seat at no.10, any changes in policy will simply be moving deck chairs....................

We are following the USA but only because we also followed them in terms of economic policy since the turn of the millenium.

Sensible central bank interest rates, tax disincentives on property speculation, tighter BTL controls, higher taxes for owners of multiple houses and so forth could have seriously blunted the pain of the coming crash.

Instead, like the US the UK govt did everything they could to stoke the fires of House Price Inflation higher even as the warning whistles were sounding. Now the boiler is set to explode and there's nothing they can do about it.

That's why I have no sympathy for Brown who is now the victim of circumstances which have developed beyond his ability to influence. The problem was allowed to grow beyond control on his watch as chancellor. It's only right that he should have to face the results of his mistakes now that he's PM.

Paul_N_4

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Bulls are not like bears, they operate very differently.
One is optomistic, the other is pessimistic.
One sees a bright future, the other see's doom and gloom

???

Being a bull or a bear has nothing to do with your outlook on life. On the stock market, where the terms are generally used, if you're a bull, you expect stock to rise, and if you're a bear, you expect it to fall. Both bulls and bears make money.

Bears don't mope around the floor of the stock exchange throwing their arms in the air, shaking their heads and grizzling, while the bulls stand there, back straight, stern look, tapping them on the shoulders saying "there there, think positive"!

I'm an extremely optimistic person. I've done very well for myself up to now and am very optimistic for the future. Another 10%-15% drop in prices (and if I was that way inclined) I could do without a mortgage and buy a place outright. That would also be the second home I own. And I've just passed my mid twenties. I also expect house prices to drop by about 25% over the next couple of years. So all of a sudden, according to you, I'm now a doom monger. LOL.

What this boils down to is your perspective on house prices. You see falling house prices as a negative thing, and therefore anyone who wants to see house prices fall is a doom monger. Whereas most others on here (and this is what you don't comprehend) see house prices falling as a positive thing.

In fact, I'd go so far as to say that YOU are the doom monger because by wanting higher house prices, you're wanting people to get into ever bigger amounts of debt, and add to an asset bubble that threatens to destabilize our economy once it bursts.

Back to the bull and bear argument (which has nothing to do with being optimistic or a 'doom monger' as you put it). You expect house prices to fall, that makes you a bear just like the rest of us. Only if you expect house prices to rise, now, do you become a bull.