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Debate House Prices


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Where did the bulls go?

135678

Comments

  • PasturesNew
    PasturesNew Posts: 70,698 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    I don't do risk.
    I will always choose tails when the coin turns out to always have two heads.
  • snarffie
    snarffie Posts: 468 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 100 Posts Combo Breaker
    Ahhh.... that old chestnut. Such a weak comeback. :rolleyes:

    It wasn't meant to be a comeback dear chap. Just an observation on those who sit there smugly saying 'I told you so.'
  • PayDay
    PayDay Posts: 346 Forumite
    chappers wrote: »
    Now that property in the short term may fall in value, but my intention is for it to be a long term investment, so in 30 years time when I come to sell it ,it has increased in value and I have made money, who would have been the winner the bear who said oh no can't buy now houses are dropping or me the bull who went ahead and made the investment.

    Answer - The bear who said "oh no can't buy now houses are dropping" and paid 25% less than you did for the initial outlay of the property and a lot less £s in interest over the term.
  • Tozer
    Tozer Posts: 3,518 Forumite
    PayDay wrote: »
    Answer - The bear who said "oh no can't buy now houses are dropping" and paid 25% less than you did for the initial outlay of the property and a lot less £s in interest over the term.

    What about the rent they would have paid? Rents seem to be heading up (supply and demand). I don't think the lot less £'s in a low interest environment is much of a reason to avoid buying.

    As for capital price, I would love to have your foresight for purchasing at exactly the right time.
  • LittleMissAspie
    LittleMissAspie Posts: 2,130 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    It's plainly obvious that houses couldn't keep rising so much faster than wages. I don't know how anyone could have thought it sustainable.
    Tozer wrote: »
    What about the rent they would have paid?
    Rent nowadays is around the same as mortgage interest, often less. Buy a house for 120k now, pay off 20k capital over the next few years, leaves you owing 100k. Meanwhile the house has lost 20k value, so you have 0% equity. OR save up 20k over the next few years, buy a house for 100k and owe 80k with 20% equity.
  • ianmr65
    ianmr65 Posts: 596 Forumite
    snarffie wrote: »
    Before you all start kissing each others butts, and we are all covered in saliva, you should remember that the crash was being called back in 2002 with much of the fervour as six months/a year ago, and it is the convergence, or 'perfect storm' of factors that appear to have brought an end to the current cycle.

    If you sit there for five years calling a crash, it is INEVITABLE that you will eventually be right. People who have called it this time were just calling it at the right stage of inevitable.

    Good point... Certainly cliff (5 top tips) d'arcy off motley fool sold his house about three years ago to str, and was becoming distictly bullish again about christmas LOL as he saw prices risin and rising...
    Tho people who called it last july and havn't been banging on for years :cool: ... are sitting very pretty ty!!


    snarffie wrote: »
    I would like to stay that the crash will be over and a housing BOOM is on the horizon. I absolutely (almost) guarantee it! :cool:

    Yeah so long as that horizon is about 5 years away... :p
  • ianmr65
    ianmr65 Posts: 596 Forumite
    Jonbvn wrote: »
    I have read several articles this week, indicating that the end of the credit crunch may be in sight. However, even when the CC ends, lenders will not be throwing loans at just anyone. Lending will revert back to the more traditional cautious approach.

    Overall, I would not expect to see HPI on the horizon for at least 5 years. Hopefully this will be the death knell of property !!!!!! on TV.

    The cc is drawing to a close in the states, becuase insanely, they are about to have a presidential election, and cos it's been going longer. the cc and hpc are in full flight here, looking at about 18 months - 2 years for both. then stability, then hpi in 5 as you say.
  • PayDay
    PayDay Posts: 346 Forumite
    Tozer wrote: »
    As for capital price, I would love to have your foresight for purchasing at exactly the right time.

    Who said anything about purchasing as the right time? I was talking about purchasing at the wrong time e.g. a falling market like we have now.
  • merlinthehappypig
    merlinthehappypig Posts: 1,106 Forumite
    Jonbvn wrote: »
    Overall, I would not expect to see HPI on the horizon for at least 5 years. Hopefully this will be the death knell of property !!!!!! on TV.

    No chance. As soon as prices start going up again, whenever that is, it will be back in all it's horrible glory. The public, on the whole, have very short memories.

    Actually I have watched a few episodes of property ladder lately, just to see 'developers' falling on their faces now that HPI isn't there to save them.
  • Pobby
    Pobby Posts: 5,438 Forumite
    In fact 2002 was quite a good time to call the top imho . What has happened a s I see it, the party kept going due to the dafter products that the lenders were dreaming up. People were crying`` property can only go up``,( regarding property falls)`` they won`t let it happen``(no one ever said who ``they`` were. Right up to the time that 125% ltv was offered by Northern !!!!. Suddenly last year somebody cried``Oh s-it , what have we done``

    Panic set in and the whole sorry business ground to an halt.
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